Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 171143
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.

- Hard freeze possible Monday morning across the area. Low
  temperatures in the lower to middle 20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Cold front has passed through the CWA, with cold air advection
commencing. Temperatures this morning were in the 30s and lower 40s,
closer to where they typically are for this time of year. Highs
today will be about 5-10 degrees below normal in the 43-55 range. Of
note will be the increase in northwesterly winds and continued dry
air moving into the CWA. The result will be elevated fire weather
conditions as relative humidity values fall to the 28-35 percent
range this afternoon, along with wind gusts of 20-30 mph.

Concern will switch from fire weather to temperatures crashing
tonight, resulting in a hard freeze for the entire CWA. With clear
skies and continued CAA, anticipate to see lows fall to near 20
degrees along the Iowa border, to middle 20s elsewhere. This could
pose a threat to sensitive plants and vegetation as the very warm
late winter and early meteorological spring has yielded early
vegetative growth. One final cold night is expected Monday night
into Tuesday AM, but readings should not drop as low; generally in
the 28-34 range.

High pressure slides off to the south on Tuesday, with weak upper
ridging, and westerly H85 winds developing - all spelling a quick
warmup after a cool start, with highs Tuesday reaching the middle
60s to middle 70s. Surface winds become northeasterly in response to
the next upper system and a reinforcing shot of cooler air from the
north. Still, temperatures will hover near climatological norms for
this time of year for middle/late part of the work week. The
official forecast maintains several chances for rainfall middle to
late in the week, albeit more of a function of uncertainty/model
blends - not every period will see precipitation, but spread is
currently large with the track of two upper waves - one cutoff low
ejecting into the Southern Plains and a shortwave trough over the
Upper Missouri Valley. It`s possible the bulk of rainfall splits the
CWA, still ample time to monitor its evolution.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. NNW winds are
expected to increase by late morning, with gusts up to 25 knots,
before relaxing by around 7 pm tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...BMW


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