173
FXUS63 KEAX 161929
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
229 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms gradually move out of the area this
afternoon. Additional rainfall accumulations will be limited.

-Dry weather is expected Friday into the weekend. Much warmer
temperatures will return Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s.

-An active weather pattern returns early next week with multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather will be possible
in the region, but details remain limited at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Thursday and Friday:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has been
slowly shifting to the south and east as the frontal boundary shifts
out of the forecast area this afternoon. Additional rainfall
accumulations will be limited and severe weather is not
expected. The wave that brought todays weather will gradually
shift east overnight and out of the region. A secondary wave is
currently positioned to our southwest which will allow for
shower and thunderstorm development on Friday across the Ozarks.
Think this activity will primarily stay south of our forecast
area, but can`t completely rule out being skirted by a few
showers Friday afternoon. As far as temperatures go, expect
slightly warmer temperatures across the forecast area with highs
reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The Weekend:

Mainly dry weather is expected heading into the weekend. Ridging
returns across the region and southerly flow and warm air advection
returns. Temperatures will respond by warming into the mid to upper
80s on Saturday and again on Sunday. The Kansas City area can expect
highs near 87 each day. These temperatures will be about 10 to 15
degrees above normal for mid-May.

Next Week:

The pattern becomes more active starting Sunday night and heading
into next week as multiple waves traverse the forecast area for the
early part of the week. Expect the return of showers and
thunderstorms and cooler (though still above average) temperatures.
Right now there are still low confidence in next weeks systems given
how far out they are, but will need to monitor for potential
stronger or severe storms near the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Scattered rainfall will gradually clear the TAF sites within the
next few hours as a front moves through the area. Expect
ceilings to gradually improve from MVFR to VFR this afternoon
with winds turning back to the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...HB