413
FXUS63 KEAX 150557
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1257 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue through the
afternoon.

- Most of the daytime hours Wednesday should be dry.

- Additional showers and storms are expected starting Wednesday
night lasting through Friday. An isolated strong storm is possible.

- Summer like temperatures expected for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The surface low that has been keeping rain around the area through
the day is slowly moving off towards the east. Showers with isolated
thunderstorms are expected to continue through the evening hours. As
the low works further east winds overnight look to calm down which
when coupled with the saturated low levels and near surface
inversion could promote the development of fog overnight. Some areas
of dense fog are possible towards sunrise with visibility being
reduced to under a quarter of a mile. Fog should dissipate by mid
morning. Northwest flow on the backside of the low has also advected
smoke from Canadian wildfires into the area. This has impacted air
quality for sensitive groups around the region. Fortunately, winds
look to turn back westerly which should slow the flow of smoke into
the region. Impacts still look to remain limited to sensitive groups.

Slight ridging Wednesday should keep most of the daytime hours dry;
however, embedded shortwave trough might initiate some isolated
showers as soon as early afternoon/evening, especially across far NW
MO. Greater chances for precipitation come during the overnight hours
into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms roll through during the
overnight hours. Storm mode favors a linear system; however, some
uncertainties remain with how the line will fill in and and if the
line splits. Strong to severe storms are possible especially with
more discrete storm modes expected early evening across far eastern
KS and NW MO. However, CAPE around 1000 J/kg and bulk shear around
30-40 kts is enough to create some storms with quarter size hail and
60 mph winds. PWAT values remain above 1 inch which suggests the
potential for concentrated heavy rainfall. This will likely lead to
flooding around creeks and streams and potentially some flash
flooding if downpours are long in duration or storms train over the
same location. RFC flash flood guidance sits at around 1.5-2 inches
of rain per hour for flash flooding concerns.

Long term guidance has remained mostly unchanged. The upper level
pattern continues to be more or less zonal with weak midlatitude
cyclones/waves embedded within. Deep convective potential still
resides in the ability for these cut off lows to be able to tap into
deep moisture. Oscillations in the storm tracks have shifted
expectations for storm intensity; however, the timing and potential
for rainfall remains mostly unchanged. Waves of showers and
thunderstorms are expected throughout much of next week. Consistent
PWAT values above 1 inch keep the potential for heavy localized
rainfall around so hydrological concerns will be a primary focus
throughout the upcoming forecast. So far runoff has been fairly
efficient limiting flash flooding potential; however, this does
increase flooding of creeks and streams. In between these troughs
riding looks to push temperatures toward summer like values with the
potential for highs to reach into the mid 80s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to last for the first few hours of the
TAF period before transitioning to IFR. Fog is expected to develop
around 11Z-14Z  and dissipate a few hours after daytime heating
begins. VFR conditions are expected to return just before the
afternoon. Winds will be light and from the east for the start of
the TAF period before shifting to the southeast by late morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Collier