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000
FXUS64 KEWX 090840
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
240 AM CST Tue Mar 9 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge over Texas with the
flow from the west to northwest. At the surface, high pressure was
centered to the northeast of our CWA. Winds have become
southeasterly early this morning. Temperatures and dewpoints have
continued to recover and are five to ten degrees higher than 24
hours ago. The warm, moist flow is producing low clouds across our
CWA this morning. The upper ridge will move to the east of Texas
today and the flow will become southwesterly. Low level winds will
remain southeasterly across the region. Under this persistent
pattern skies will be slow to scatter out this afternoon. Despite
the cloudiness, warm advection will lead to higher temperatures this
today with highs around five degrees warmer than yesterday. The
general pattern will change very little through the rest of this
period. This will mean the warming trend will continue along with
dry weather. Both low and high temperatures Wednesday will be around
five degrees warmer than the previous period. The persistent
southeasterly flow will produce more cloud cover overnight Tuesday
into Wednesday and slowly clearing skies Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
For mid to late week, southerly lower level flow from the Gulf of
Mexico and southwesterly flow aloft from the Pacific will continue to
moisten and warm the airmass over our area. This will lead to some
streamer showers Friday morning across the eastern Hill Country to
along the I-35 corridor as the low level jet strengthens underneath
a strong capping inversion with above seasonal normal moisture levels
(PWs). Well above seasonal normal temperatures are expected.

For this weekend, models continue to trend closer in agreement with
the passage of a Pacific front and upper level trough. There is now
only a 6 hour timing difference between the GFS and ECMWF noted in
the 09/00Z run with the GFS the faster of the two. Expect the front
to move across our area late Saturday into Sunday with the trough
lagging a few hours. Upward forcing strengthens leading to showers
Saturday morning as the strong capping inversion holds. Saturday
afternoon into evening as the front approaches, the cap will weaken
allowing for mainly isolated thunderstorms due to increasing
instability. The greatest forcing and instability will be along the
front where there is possibility of a strong storm or two due to
CAPEs of 500 to 700 J/Kg. Small hail and gusty winds would be the
threats. The showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east on
Sunday into Sunday evening. Rainfall amounts of generally 1/4 inch or
less can be expected with isolated amounts up to 1 inch possible.
Well above normal temperatures on Saturday turn cooler and slightly
below normal on Sunday.

For early to middle of next week, another warming trend ensues for
Monday into Tuesday with no rain expected, then some model runs
indicate a much colder airmass for Wednesday or Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  60  81  65  81 /  -   -    0  -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  59  81  64  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     78  60  81  65  83 /  -   -    0  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            73  58  77  63  79 /   0  -    0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           78  62  82  62  86 /   0  -    0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  59  79  64  80 /  -    0   0  -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             78  58  82  60  84 /   0  -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  58  80  63  82 /  -   -    0  -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  60  80  65  80 /   0   0  -   -   -
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  59  80  64  81 /  -   -    0  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           76  59  81  64  82 /  -    0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...05
Long-Term...04