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000
FXUS64 KEWX 240554
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1254 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

The above average heat and humidity will continue through the short
term period. Expect for continued near daily record high
temperatures at the four primary climate sites. Upper level ridging
remains centered to the southwest across Mexico while a north to
northwesterly mid-level flow will be established aloft across South-
Central Texas.

A mainly dry day is anticipated today as the latest guidance has
become less inclined for the arrival of isolated sea breeze activity
in the coastal plains. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies across the region. Decaying convection from the Trans
Pecos region may yield to dissipating showers and debris cloud cover
entering Val Verde County and the Southern Edwards Plateau this
evening to around midnight. Another very warm and humid night will
trend across South-Central Texas with returning patchy overnight and
early morning low stratus across portions of the I-35 corridor.

A shortwave embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft passing to
our north along the Red River will help advance a cold front across
North-Central Texas from Sunday into Sunday night. This front will
also act as a focal point for convection to our north. While this
front is not expected to make it to South-Central Texas during the
short term period, southward propagating convective outflow could
enter the region through the Hill Country. This also may serve as a
catalyst for isolated to scattered convection across central and
eastern portions of the CWA. Increasing deep layer bulk shear and
moderate MLCAPE between 1000 to 2000 J/kg could support some
isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as
the primary hazards. Additionally, any storms could be capable of
locally heavy rainfall and perhaps some isolated flooding where any
storms train/remain over. A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather from SPC and a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive
rainfall from WPC has been highlighted across central/northern
portions of our CWA on the latest Day 2 outlooks for late Sunday
into Sunday night. A slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather
and slight risk for excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) generally
highlights the region just to the north of our CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Synopsis: The cold front currently evident over the Central Plains
will be approaching the region from the north by Monday morning &
the beginning of the long term period. The boundary will support
shower and thunderstorm chances through Monday evening as it
progresses south into the area. The front is likely to stall
somewhere in our vicinity during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame,
supporting additional periods of shower and thunderstorm potential
across the area. East-southeast surface winds will become re-
established on Thursday, washing out what`s left of the frontal
boundary through the afternoon hours. This will act to shut precip
chances off across the majority of the area through the end of the
week and into next weekend, with the lone exception being along the
sea breeze in the Coastal Plains. Relative to the readings currently
in place across the region, cooler high temperatures in the low-mid
90s will prevail through the duration of the period. A few upper 90s
are possible across the southwest on Monday afternoon, where the
front will arrive last.

Monday: The highest PoPs of the long term are featured as the cold
front discussed in the synopsis approaches and enters South-Central
Texas. While widespread severe weather is not expected in this
activity, an isolated strong to marginally severe storm can`t be
ruled out along/ahead of the front during the afternoon hours.
Strong winds and hail will be the main concerns in any activity that
approaches severe levels. The Storm Prediction Center has included
the northern half of the area in a marginal (level 1/5) risk for
severe weather in light of this potential. Locally heavy downpours
could also accompany some storms, which could lead to minor flooding
concerns near low-water crossings. Widespread flooding potential is
low. The Weather Prediction Center has included most of the area in
a marginal (level 1/4) risk for excessive rainfall in its Day 3
Excessive Rainfall Outlook in light of this potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

A dying storm cell is producing some gusty outflows at DRT; the winds
should die down in the next hour. By around 09Z or 10Z, some broken
decks of MVFR cigs should take shape along I-35 and last through
around 14Z or 15Z. Some afternoon and early evening gusts to around
20 knots will be possible. Will favor the NAM and a bias toward
earlier solutions on the approaching weak front and storm complex
over Central TX after midnight tonight over the GFS. However, most of
the convective allowing models have taken the faster solution like
the latest GFS, so this might get adjusted late this morning to where
all the I-35 terminals are impacted by around 06Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 130 AM CDT SAT Sep 23 2023

Record High Temperatures and year last reached:

        9/23        9/24
AUS - 101 (2005)  101 (2005)
ATT - 100 (2019)   99 (2011)
SAT -  99 (2005)  102 (2005)
DRT - 104 (1908)  103 (2005)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  94  72  92 /  40  70  50  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  94  72  92 /  30  70  50  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  97  73  94 /  30  60  60  40
Burnet Muni Airport            73  92  70  90 /  40  70  40  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 100  75  96 /  10  40  60  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  91  71  91 /  40  70  40  30
Hondo Muni Airport             74  97  72  93 /  20  50  60  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  97  71  93 /  30  60  50  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  92  73  91 /  30  60  50  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  97  74  93 /  20  60  60  40
Stinson Muni Airport           77  98  75  95 /  20  50  60  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...29
Aviation...18