Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 262325 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
625 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
Upper level high pressure will build over the area through Thursday.
This will continue to southerly flow, but decrease the convection
for Thursday and Friday. Isolated convection during the afternoon
and evening STILL POSSIBLE with majority of the convection over the
coastal plains east of I-35. Current convection should diminish by
sunset. Winds overnight will be S/SE near 5 mph. VFR conditions will
become MVFR as stratus develops overnight 06Z-08Z with a later start
around 10Z for KDRT. Ceilings will lift to VFR in the 16Z-18Z period
with S/SE winds increasing to 10-15 mph.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms developed this afternoon along a
moisture gradient across the Edwards Plateau and along the seabreeze
across the Coastal Plains. The seabreeze as of 2:30 pm has worked
into the I-35 corridor. Rainfall rates with the morning activity were
enough to produce between 2-4 inches of rain, while LCRA hydromet
gauge readings from this afternoon in general show 0.50-0.75 inches
from the heaviest showers and storms. Brief gusty winds and lightning
will also be possible. Precipitation will mainly be diurnally driven
tonight, with only a few lingering showers lasting past 10pm across
the Rio Grande Plains. These are in response to a 700mb trough that
has helped increase lift during the day today providing for the
scattered activity.

High pressure and more stable air begins to build in tomorrow with
any afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity being limited to the
Coastal Plains as onshore flow continues. Afternoon highs continue to
run near normal with the increased sunshine tomorrow.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
With the surface ridge to the east and a 500mb ridge to the west
stable and dry weather continues Friday across the area. Afternoon
highs may creep up another degree into the low to mid 90s for the
afternoon hours, but this remains near seasonal normals for late
June.

By Saturday all of the global models show a TUTT low and/or inverted
trough developing near Louisiana across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This trough will retrograde westward across South Central
Texas through the day on Sunday and then set up along the Rio Grande
Plains for Sunday through at least next Wednesday. With the upper
level ridge across the western CONUS and another mid-level ridge
building across the Gulf of Mexico this trough/shear axis becomes
stuck between these upper highs and remains around South Central
Texas through much of next week. By Wednesday into Thursday it does
appear that the axis begins to weaken and more stable air may return
to the area. A few important notes about this trough before moving
onto the impacts: 1) The GFS increased precipitable water values by
the early to middle part of next week from around 1.5 inches on
Sunday to 2-2.5 inches by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This
may aid in increasing rain rates with any storms that are around
these two days, 2) The 12z Canadian appeared strongest with the
inverted trough compared to the other global models and focused the
precipitation more along the I-35 corridor rather than the Coastal
Plains for Sunday through Wednesday.

With the TUTT/inverted trough in place rain chances will persist for
late Saturday through at least Wednesday. The best chances will be
during the afternoon hours where the sea breeze and the sun will
provide additional lift along with the trough. This lift, within a
moist tropical environment, should allow for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. With increasing Gulf
moisture it looks like the best chances of rain will be Tuesday into
Wednesday, but as this is a forecast a week out and the movement and
location of the trough will impact where the moderate rain occurs
this may chance over the coming days.

Regardless of where the rain falls the increased cloudcover and
shower/thunderstorm activity will help keep afternoon highs below
normal for Sunday into the middle of next week. Temperatures behind
the outflows and sea breeze will also potentially drop due to the
rain cooled downdraft air.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  91  71  92  70 /  10  20  -   10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  91  71  91  70 /  10  20  -   10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  90  70  91  69 /  10  20  -   10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            70  89  69  90  69 /  10  -   -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  92  72  92  71 /  20   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  91  70  92  69 /  10  10  -   -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             72  92  71  93  69 /  10  10  -   -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  91  70  92  69 /  10  20  -   10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  92  71  93  71 /  -   20  -   10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  91  71  92  70 /  10  10  -   10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           73  91  71  91  70 /  10  10  -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...10
Short-Term/Long-Term...05
Public Service/Data Collection...33


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