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000
FXUS64 KEWX 220935
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
335 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough over the western US
with southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface, there was a
stationary front along the coast with winds from the northeast across
our CWA on the cold side of the front. Dewpoint temperatures have
increased 10 to 15 degrees over the last 24 hours. The upper trough
will move from the southwest to the middle of the country during this
period. The flow will be southwesterly today and tonight and turn to
westerly Saturday. A shortwave trough will move through the pattern
and along with the stationary front near the coast will bring some
showers to our CWA with better chances across the eastern half of
the area today. Tonight a Pacific cold front will move into West
Texas and then into our CWA overnight. The front should reach I-35
by around sunrise Saturday and move out of our area by mid-morning.
This will bring showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms
overnight Friday into Saturday across the entire area with a chance
for showers across the eastern half of the area until around noon.
Behind the front winds will become strong from the west to northwest.
This will bring much drier air with dewpoints dropping into the
teens and 20s west of I-35/I-37 leading to fire weather concerns. See
the fire weather discussion for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
The upper level trough will move off to the east and flow will become
zonal Saturday night and remain that way through the week. The low
level flow will become northerly to northeasterly Sunday and then
easterly Monday as high pressure moves across North Texas. Monday
night and Tuesday an old surface boundary over the Gulf will push
northward and produce sufficient isentropic lift to bring a chance
for rain to the eastern half of our CWA. Wednesday another cold front
will move through North Texas and into our area. The main energy with
this system will pass to the east of us and there will only be a
slight chance for precipitation. Winds will become northerly behind
this front bringing drier, cooler air.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much drier air and strong gusty winds will move in behind the cold
front Saturday. Dewpoint temperatures will drop into the teens and
20s reducing relative humidity to less than 30% across the entire
forecast area and less than 20% west of a line from Burnet to San
Antonio to Pleasanton. Twenty foot winds across the area will be 15
to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will mean critical fire
weather conditions and a Red Flag Warning will likely be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  53  71  43  64 /  40  60  30   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  55  71  42  64 /  40  60  30   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  56  72  42  66 /  40  60  20   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            62  50  69  37  62 /  40  60  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  51  73  41  70 /  10  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        62  51  71  39  63 /  50  60  30   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             71  55  72  42  69 /  30  40  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        67  55  71  42  65 /  40  60  20   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  59  72  43  65 /  50  60  40   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  57  72  44  67 /  30  50  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           69  57  72  44  68 /  30  50  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...04
Short-Term/Long-Term...05