Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 251149 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
649 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
KAUS is expected to be around the upper end of LIFR and IFR
categories through 14z this morning. After 14z, cigs over the Austin
area airports are forecast to mix/lift to VFR conditions through
late tonight. For the San Antonio area airports cigs will be
lingering between IFR and MVFR cigs through 15z before low clouds
lift to VFR conditions for rest of today and evening. KDRT is
forecast to remain VFR for the entire forecast period. Winds are
light and variable this morning with a prevailing southerly flow of 5
to 10 knots range forecast this afternoon and evening. The better
chances for rain are forecast across the Coastal Plains this
afternoon with no impact to the area terminals. Low MVFR cigs could
happen late tonight across the I-35 sites, however, opted to monitor
closely the situation and wait for new model data to come in to
increase confidence to the late part of the forecast.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
A mid level shortwave trough axis over western and northern Texas is
evident on the latest 6.95um satellite imagery. This trough axis
will drop southward through the area today, bringing some drier and
more stable northerly flow in the mid-levels to our region. We expect
much less coverage of showers and storms this afternoon compared to
Saturday and will only go with a 20-30% chance for areas along and
east of the I-35 corridor. Otherwise, temperatures will warm today
with highs ranging from the mid 90s to near 104. Heat index values
may briefly rise close to advisory levels for areas along and east of
the I-35 corridor this afternoon. For now, we prefer to address the
heat with a Special Weather Statement as confidence is not quite high
enough to warrant a Heat Advisory.

Upper level ridging continues to build over the region on Monday and
with the low-level thermal ridge strengthening to our west,
temperatures will warm considerably. With continued humid conditions
in the low-levels, afternoon heat index values will likely require a
Heat Advisory for a good portion of south central Texas, except for
possibly a few counties in the Hill Country.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Mid and upper level ridging will continue over the region as we head
into the middle of the work week. This pattern will keep above normal
temperatures in place along with elevated heat index values across
all of south central Texas through Wednesday. We will keep the
forecast dry for all areas on Tuesday, but will opt for a low chance
for showers and storms across portions of the Hill Country, I-35
corridor and coastal plains on Wednesday as a weak upper disturbance
moves in from the northwest. In addition, the models continue to
hint a weak cold front will approach central Texas late Wednesday.
This boundary weakens rather quickly on Thursday and will likely not
bring any relief from the heat.

For the latter half of the week, the oppressive upper ridge will
contract a bit and become better established over the desert
southwest. This should allow temperatures to ease slightly, but we
will continue to have above normal warmth through Friday, with near
normal readings on Saturday. Most areas will also remain dry, but a
few afternoon showers and storms are still possible across the
coastal plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              99  79 103  78 103 /  20   0   0   0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  78 101  78 100 /  20   0   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  77 100  77 101 /  20  -    0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            97  77 100  76 100 /  10   0   0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  79 108  80 105 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        99  79 103  78 101 /  20   0   0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport            100  77 104  78 102 /  20  -    0   0  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  77 101  77 100 /  20  -    0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   99  79 102  78 101 /  30  -    0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       98  79 101  79 101 /  20  -    0   0  -
Stinson Muni Airport          100  79 102  79 102 /  20  -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...17
Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt


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