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000
FXUS64 KEWX 090447
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1047 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

.UPDATE...
06Z Aviation forecast below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail late this evening with high cirrus streaming
through the region. Low stratus and fog is expected to develop
07Z-12Z near and east of I-35. VLIFR/LIFR ceilings are expected
across much of this region, including SAT/SSF/AUS. The low stratus
and fog are expected to gradually erode 16Z-19Z Mon, with VFR
conditions in the afternoon. A cold front is forecast to move into
the region Monday night, reaching AUS/DRT around 03Z-05Z and SAT/SSF
04Z-06Z Tue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019/

UPDATE...
Quick update to expand the fog coverage and intensity tonight.
Light winds should help promote patchy fog development shortly after
midnight along and east of the I-35 corridor with the fog becoming
more dense through the night. The GFS LAMP guidance and consensus of
the short term models are both suggesting more dense fog will be
possible along the Coastal Plains and up towards the I-35 corridor
similar to what we saw this morning. Fog should lift and mix out by
mid-morning on Monday. The rest of the forecast is on track with only
minor retrending of the hourly grids done.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
The upper level flow is turning anticyclonically over Texas. At the
surface, high pressure is centered to the east of our CWA and winds
are from the south to southwest. Temperatures and dewpoints are up
five to 15 degrees today. Southerly low level flow will continue
tonight bringing warmer air. The warm, moist advection will allow fog
to develop again Monday morning along and southeast of I-35. There
could be some pockets of dense fog. A cold front will approach South
Central Texas Monday and ahead of the front temperatures will be well
above normal. Some places could be near record highs. The cold front
will move through the region Monday night bringing likely rain. The
front should reach the southern border of our CWA before sunrise
Tuesday. While rain chances are high, rain amounts are likely to be
low with widespread totals around a quarter of an inch.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Rain will likely continue behind the front during the day Tuesday.
Again, high POPs low amounts are expected. With the rain, clouds, and
cold advection temperatures will be much cooler Tuesday with highs
Tuesday 30 or more degrees cooler than Monday. Rain chances will end
quickly Tuesday evening. Wednesday morning temperatures will be at
or below freezing over most of the area along and north of I-35/Hwy
90. A weak upper level ridge will move across the Southern Plains
during the middle of the week leading to a dry forecast. Temperatures
will warm through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              60  81  41  46  33 /   0   0  80  90  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  59  81  41  47  32 /   0   0  80  90  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     59  80  43  48  32 /   0   0  70  80  -
Burnet Muni Airport            56  81  39  43  29 /   0   0  80  90  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           54  82  46  55  36 /   0   0  60  60   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        57  81  39  45  30 /   0   0  80  90  -
Hondo Muni Airport             55  82  44  53  32 /   0   0  60  70  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        60  81  41  48  32 /   0  -   70  80  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   64  81  44  49  34 /   0   0  80  80  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       59  79  44  49  34 /   0   0  70  80  -
Stinson Muni Airport           60  80  46  51  34 /   0   0  70  70  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Aviation...Runyen
Short-Term/Long-Term...Treadway