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000
FXUS64 KEWX 250259
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
959 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.UPDATE...
Rain has ended for the night. We have cancelled the Flash Flood
Watch. The surface boundary has moved east of our CWA taking all the
convection with it. The upper low continues to move across the Big
Bend region and with the complete loss of daytime heating, the
convection around the bottom of the low has also ended. We should be
dry through the rest of the evening and overnight. We had to lower
some minimum temperatures since we had already reached them.
Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/

UPDATE...
The severe threat continues to diminish and we have allowed the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch expire in the last three counties in our
CWA. There is still a small chance that a storm could become severe
along and east of Hwy 71, but a watch does not seem needed for that
small possibility. At this time the strongest storm is in Lavaca
County and it should move out of the county before 8 PM. There has
been some new storm development behind the surface boundary and we
will keep the Flash Flood Watch in effect for a little longer until
we have a better idea how this will progress.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/

AVIATION...
The line of strong thunderstorms has moved east of the San Antonio
area and is still in the vicinity of Austin. Ceilings have lifted to
VFR at all airports. There will continue to be showers and
thunderstorms in the vicinity of AUS for the next few hours. Any
showers that move across the airfield will not change the category.
All airports will be VFR through this period. There is a small chance
that another shower moves into DRT this evening as the upper low
moves across the region. But, we don`t think this will change the
category. Winds will be a little breezy for the next few hours and
then drop below 10 kts for the rest of the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/

UPDATE...
The severe threat has decreased west of the surface boundary and we
have cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all counties except
De Witt, Lavaca, and Fayette. The line of thunderstorms continues to
move through this area with one storm likely severe in De Witt
County. This threat will continue for another hour or two until the
boundary clears our CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/

UPDATE...
Have removed all counties along and west of the Interstate 35
corridor from the severe thunderstorm watch. The severe thunderstorm
watch remains in effect until 7 pm for counties east of the I-35
corridor. However, that being said, activity is definitely waining
across the region, with showers being the predominant mode of
precipitation, with only a few lightning strikes here and there.
Rainfall rates have also come down significantly. An outflow is
beginning to race out ahead of the main broken line of showers across
the Coastal Plains, which will likely only continue to diminish the
activity. Isolated storms which formed off the higher elevations of
Coahuila west of the Rio Grande have indeed weakened significantly as
they moved east toward Maverick County and into a less favorable
environment. The most intense storms anywhere across the region
right now is the storm west northwest of College Station and another
in McMullen County just south of the region. High res convection
allowing models continue to show any lingering shower and
thunderstorm activity exiting east of the CWA by about 10 pm tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight)...
As expected, it has been an active weather day across the region.
Per GOES-16 water vapor imagery, the center of the mid level low is
currently located over the Big Bend region. The cold front is located
from near Lampasas south toward Faith Ranch along the Rio Grande and
moving east. An outflow boundary that was kicked off from the
overnight convection across the Dallas-Fort Worth area moved through
the region this morning, setting up shop across the Coastal Plains.
This has managed to temper the severe threat somewhat today, as most
storms became elevated. Also, persistent cloud cover has kept
instability lowered. With all that being said, a severe thunderstorm
watch remains in effect for the vast majority of the region through 7
pm, mainly for marginally severe hail and strong winds. The Flash
Flood Watch remains in effect through midnight tonight for portions
of the Hill Country and Austin metro, but this will likely be
cancelled early as precipitation will come to an end earlier than
expected. As of 2:30 pm, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms
which developed along the surface cold front exists from near Burnet
south toward Comfort and moving east. Rainfall amounts continue to be
manageable and no active convective warnings are in effect, although
some of these storms are likely producing some small hail, gusty
winds and brief periods of very heavy rain, especially across western
portions of Travis and Williamson Counties. This activity should be
reaching the I-35 corridor sometime in the 3 pm to 4 pm time frame.
High resolution convection allowing models show convection ending
fairly quickly from west to east this evening, with all remaining
precip clearing from the I-35 corridor by mid evening and completely
out of the CWA by late evening. Some post frontal elevated supercells
have developed off the mountains of northern Mexico, but those
should decay before crossing the Rio Grande. Clouds will linger for a
bit before clearing from west to east overnight tonight, with mild
temperatures expected.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Wednesday)...
Pleasant weather will return on Thursday and should continue through
early next week. Northwest flow aloft overspreads the region tomorrow
on the back side of the upper level trough as it exits northeast
into the Ohio Valley. Zonal flow and subtle ridging builds in on
Friday and continues through Monday. During this time frame, expect
dry weather and generally near normal temperatures.

By Monday evening, the next upper level system makes landfall across
Southern California and heads northeast toward the four corners
region. Much of the west-central CONUS will be under the influence of
broad troughing by Tuesday evening into Wednesday, including South
Central Texas, and this may reintroduce chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              56  81  60  80  58 /  10  -    0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  57  81  59  80  57 /  10  -    0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     56  82  58  81  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            55  78  57  77  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           63  88  60  87  61 /  -    0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        56  80  58  79  58 /  10  -    0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             54  86  58  85  57 /  -    0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        56  82  58  81  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   60  81  60  81  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       56  83  61  82  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           58  83  61  82  58 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Platt
Short-Term/Long-Term...05