262
FXUS64 KEWX 131857
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
157 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch in effect until 7 PM for the Hill Country,
  Southern Edwards Plateau, and I-35 Corridor.

- Level 3 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall for tonight into
  Monday morning for parts of the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill
  Country, and northern I-35 Corridor; a Level 2 of 4 risk for
  the rest of South Central Texas.

- Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with isolated 6 inches
  possible across the Flood Watch area through Monday.

- Rapid river rises are possible with this event.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

An upper level low pressure system is generating showers and
thunderstorms in an usually moist airmass over South Central
Texas. The system has been more progressive this afternoon, and
rainfall totals have been more moderate than early today. This
system will continue to move slowly across the region and rain
chances will continue tonight. As the low moves away from our
area chances should decrease to the 30%-40% range overnight. The
deep moisture will remain in place making locally heavy rain
possible in any strong updrafts. We will continue the Flood
Watch until this evening, but for now let it end at 7 pm. We
will re-evaluate the situation later this afternoon to see if we
need to extend it. The upper low will continue to influence the
region Monday. The airmass will still be very moist and the
lift from the upper low will be enhanced by daytime heating
leading to about a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon over the western Hill Country and Southern
Edwards Plateau. At this time it looks like the chances for
heavy rain will be limited, and we do not expect any flooding.
Monday night rain chances will decrease to slight. Most of the
CWA should be dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Tuesday the subtropical ridge will begin building of TX. There
will still be enough instability for a slight chance for rain
during the day Tuesday. Subsident flow should suppress
convection beginning Tuesday night. This will continue through
the rest of the work week. Drier weather and more sunshine
should lead to warming temperatures through the week. This
should bring highs back up to near normal. Friday and Saturday
we could see some seabreeze showers over the Coastal Plains
during the afternoon. Temperatures will stay near normal over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A mix of MVFR and at times IFR cigs are forecast to continue across
the I-35 corridor terminals through early afternoon as this line of
TSRAs makes its way across the area. VFR cigs are then expected for
the rest of today into early evening before more storms are expected
to move across the I-35 sites bringing down cigs and vsbys to MVFR
levels once again. Added PROB30s to account for the possibility of
more redevelopment this afternoon with all TSRA activity likely
finished by 00Z. -RA is possible thereafter so added VCSH to account
for this as well. MVFR conditions return overnight with VFR
conditions returning by early Monday afternoon for all sites. South
to southeast flow is forecast to prevail through the period. For KDRT
have a PROB30 for overnight hours for possibility of redevelopment
of TSRAs then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  92  75  93 /  30  40  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  92  75  93 /  30  40  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  93  75  93 /  30  40  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            71  88  72  90 /  40  40  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  94  77  95 /  30  30  20  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  91  74  92 /  40  40  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             74  91  75  92 /  40  40  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  93  74  93 /  30  40  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  91  75  92 /  20  40   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  92  76  93 /  30  40  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           76  95  76  96 /  30  40  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bandera-Bexar-
Blanco-Burnet-Comal-Edwards-Gillespie-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-
Llano-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...05
Aviation...CJM