Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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120 FXUS64 KEWX 141127 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 627 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 An upper level trough is moving across TX this morning and the flow is becoming west-northwesterly. At the surface, high pressure is moving over the region and winds are light and variable. A cooler, drier airmass has moved over our CWA. Temperatures and dewpoints are five to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Some patchy fog has developed over the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor. The patchy fog will spread across more of the area before sunrise and then burn off quickly. High pressure will move across our CWA today with quiet weather expected. Skies will be mostly sunny and temperatures will warm. Highs will range from the upper 90s over the Rio Grande Plains to the upper 80s over the eastern zones. Tonight winds will turn back to the south or southeast and increase in speed. Temperatures will be warmer again with lows about five degrees warmer than this morning. Southeasterly flow will continue Wednesday. High temperatures will be about the same as today. A dryline will move toward our northwestern area and may generate showers and thunderstorms near the Big Bend region. Some of these storms could move into Val Verde County Wednesday afternoon, but chances are low. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 A trough will be located over the northern Baja Peninsula Wednesday night, expected to progress east towards the Plains through late week. An impulse ahead of this system will bring precipitation chances in the west as early as Wednesday night, although the better precipitation chances arrive on Thursday. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms this day resides over the eastern two thirds of the area. High PWATS from 1.5 to over 2 inches will bring the potential for heavy rain, especially over the far northeastern portion of the CWA. WPC highlights a level 2 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall for this area. Ample low level moisture and high CAPE values are expected by the afternoon. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing large to very large hail this day and a level 2 of 5 for severe weather has been introduced by SPC over portions of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. Some precipitation may linger into Friday as the trough moves across the Central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley, although chances are lesser this day. Dry weather, clear skies, and warm to hot temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week. Widespread highs in the 90s and or low triple digits are expected Sunday into next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 There is some patchy fog over the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor. Fog may move over the Austin and San Antonio terminals over the next few hours reducing visibility to MVFR. Otherwise, all terminals will be VFR through this period. Winds in Austin and San Antonio will be less than 10 kts through the period. Winds at DRT will increase to 10 to 15 kts this afternoon from the southeast and shift to the east late this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 91 67 91 71 / 0 0 0 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 90 64 91 69 / 0 0 0 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 65 92 71 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 87 65 88 70 / 0 0 0 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 99 72 97 77 / 0 0 10 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 88 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 20 Hondo Muni Airport 92 65 93 72 / 0 0 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 90 64 91 70 / 0 0 0 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 65 90 70 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 91 67 92 73 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 92 67 93 73 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...27 Aviation...05