Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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854
FXUS64 KBRO 191752 AAC
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1252 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&

.AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate
mostly cumulus clouds across the eastern half of CWA early this
afternoon. Ceilings were near 3000ft at KBRO to near 3800ft at
KTXW. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande
Valley the rest of the afternoon into this evening as a nearly
zonal flow across south Texas continues to provide subsidence
across the area in general. MVFR conditions will develop late
tonight into early Sun morning as patchy fog/low clouds develop as
low to mid level moisture increases across northeast Mexico into
the RGV.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/
DISCUSSION...NOS tide gages indicate water levels at South Padre
Island have fallen to just below 1 foot above MHHW even as long
period swells offshore the lower Texas coast continue to move
towards the island. Have allowed the coastal flood advisory to
expire this morning as web cams indicate coastal flooding
continues to diminish along the beach at SPI. However...minor
coastal flooding will likely return tonight into early Sunday
morning as astronomical high tides will return late tonight and
water levels will likely reach between 1 to 2 feet above MHHW
especially near high tide at 12:27 am Sunday. Have reissued a
coastal flood advisory for the coastal sections of
Cameron...Willacy and Kenedy counties for tonight as a result.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Some patchy fog and low cloud decks prevail across
deep south Texas early this morning. Mainly VFR conditions
expected for the next 24 hours. However, can not rule out a brief
period of MVFR conditions at MFE around sunrise this morning and
again late tonight. Southeast to south winds around 10 knots or
less is expected through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): A 500mb shortwave trough over the
southern Plains early this morning will continue to move eastward
today. Tropical Storm Nestor across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
this morning is forecast to continue to move towards the northeast
today. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate some
patchy fog has formed across portions of the CWA this morning. Any
fog that develops should quickly lift and dissipate by mid morning.

Subsidence will prevail across deep south Texas today as a more
zonal flow develops across the region. Summer like temperatures are
expected today as Mid-level zonal flow with significant dry air
aloft and southerly flow at the surface, will allow temperatures to
climb well into the 90s this afternoon. High temperatures will range
from the low 90s near the coast to the mid to upper 90s inland under
partly cloudy skies. A weak cold front is expected to move into
central Texas this afternoon before stalling north of the CWA
tonight. Isolated showers will be possible across the northern
ranchlands tonight as moisture pools along and ahead of the front.
Otherwise, the combination of light winds and relatively clear skies
will support the development of some patchy fog across portions of
the CWA late tonight into early Sunday morning. Low temperatures
tonight will generally be in the mid to upper 70s.

Well above average temperatures and humid conditions continue into
Sunday as the mid-level zonal flow becomes more southwesterly during
the day. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the upper 80s
at the beaches to the mid to upper 90s inland. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern portions of the
CWA on Sunday due to increasing moisture and daytime heating.

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect until 9 am for the very
narrow beaches along lower Texas coast. Current water levels
indicate that tides were running about 1.5 feet above MHHW.
Astronomical high tides occurred at 11:17 pm last tonight and should
slowly recede through the morning hours. Minor coastal flooding is
possible along narrow beaches around the high tide cycles through
the weekend. Tidal run-up may reach the dunes.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday): An unsettled pattern is
expected for the upcoming work week as an amplified trough across
the Eastern U.S. brings a couple strong cold fronts through Deep
South Texas. Starting on Monday, deep-layer moisture originating
from the Pacific will stream over the region ahead of the first
front, which is expected to move through the CWA by Monday
evening. This will quickly increase rain chances across the
eastern half of the area leading up to the frontal passage with
likely PoP along and east of Interstate 69E. Similar to the
previous front, models indicate weak coastal troughing in the wake
of the front, which will keep mentionable rain chances and near-
normal temperatures across the coastal areas and Lower RGV.
Steering flow will gradually shift back to the SW and amplify
around mid-week with plenty of moisture residing across the
region. As the ridge across the Pacific Southwest builds, the next
shortwave trough will deepen across the Southern Plains towards
the end of the week, sending the next front through some time on
Friday. Models do diverge at this point, with significant
differences in timing. However, all solutions indicate a much
stronger front with significantly cooler temperatures by the
weekend.

Coastal areas may see periodic wave run-up and minor coastal
flooding at astronomical high tide cycles for the next several
days. The best chances will be around mid-week with the next
front and coastal troughing setup.

MARINE (Now through Sunday): Buoy 42020 reported south winds
around 12 knots gusting to around 15 knots with seas of 4.6 feet
with a period of 6 seconds at 340 CDT/840 UTC. The pressure
gradient will continue to weaken across the lower Texas coast
today as high pressure builds into the western Gulf in the wake of
Tropical Storm Nestor. Light south to southeast winds today will
increase tonight and Sunday as a weak cold front moves into south
Texas.

Sunday night through Friday: The next cold front is expected on
Monday, which will bring strong northerly winds and hazardous
seas. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Monday and
Tuesday before winds shift back to the southeast. Another front is
possible towards the end of the week, which may bring even
stronger north winds in its wake. Throughout the week, deep
moisture will allow for the chance of showers and thunderstorms
nearly everyday. Some storms may produce locally gusty winds and
higher seas.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday
     for TXZ256-257-351.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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