Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 190712
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
312 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region through Monday. Low
pressure will cross the region later Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Northern Maine will remain under cyclonic flow aloft today
around an upper low over Newfoundland. Bufkit model soundings
indicate a considerable amount of low level moisture across
northern areas from around Baxter State Park north, and
especially so across the northeast corner of the FA. This will
mean a lot of stratocu today with a mostly cloudy sky in the
north with a chilly wind. An isolated brief/light shower is
possible, maybe even a graupel shower across the far north.
Late in the day, the clouds may break up some, but with the
sunset now at 5:40 pm in Caribou, about the best we can hope for
are a few peaks of blue sky very late in the day. Downslope
will allow for much more in the way of sunshine across the
southern half of the FA with a partly to mostly sunny sky in the
Bangor Region and along the coast. Highs will remain stuck in
the cool 40s north to the mid 50s south. High pressure will
build into the region tonight with the wind becoming light and
even calm in many valley by mid-late evening. The clouds in the
north will give way to a clear to locally p/cloudy sky with a
clear sky to the south of Baxter State Park. Lows should get
well down into the 20s in the normally colder northwest valleys
with upper 20s to low 30s for most, but a bit milder on
shoreline communities. High pressure remains in control Sunday
with a mostly sunny sky. Some high clouds may begin to move in
from the west during the afternoon. High temperatures will be
near to perhaps a couple of degrees above average with low to
mid 50s north to the upper 50s south with light wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A high pressure ridge will be crested over the state at the
start of the period. A Low moving north along the Eastern
Seaboard and a second low over South Dakota will be the next
weather system to affect our area. High pressure will dominate
the weather trough the short term period of the forecast. The
low along the Eastern Seaboard will move to just south of Cape
Cod. The low in the Midwest will move east to Lake Superior
with a frontal system extending east to the eastern Great Lakes
region.

Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM to smooth out the minor
differences in the models.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will be building east of the area as a cold front
approaches from the west. The cold front at the start of the
period will be extended across the eastern Great Lakes. Its low
will be centered over Lake Superior. A second low in the North
Atlantic SE of Cape Cod will also affect our weather. Tuesday
evening the cold front will move east into NH. The low in the
Atlantic moves NW to Portland ME. A warm front will extend
across central Maine. Early Wednesday morning the Atlantic low
merges with the cold front over western Maine. The cold front
will exit our area Wednesday afternoon. The parent low will have
tracked NE into the James Bay region and started the filling
process. As it sits over James Bay it will spin off troughs that
will track across Northern Maine continuing a threat for
showers through early Saturday morning. The extended guidance
indicates another system for the end of the period. At this time
no agreement on the movement or position of this system. EC
shows a low in southern Quebec. With a front extending south
along the Atlantic Seaboard. GFS snows a low over Georgia, a low
over central Canada with a trough extending south west of Lake
Superior. And the GEM shows the low over Georgia with a trough
extending through the Great Lakes to southern Illinois.

Loaded a blend of models to smooth out the minor differences.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Local MVFR possible today, mainly to the north of
KCAR; otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through Sunday.
There is the outside chance that some late night river fog could
form and briefly affect KPQI and KHUL from 08-12Z, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the Tafs at this
time. A gusty NW wind will gust to 20-25 knots at the Aroostook
County terminals today with the wind becoming light tonight.
Light wind is expected Sunday.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday evening through Tuesday afternoon...VFR all sites except
fog over bodies of water during the early morning hours.
Ceilings and visibilities in these areas reduced to Low IFR
conditions.

Tuesday afternoon...Increasing clouds and decreasing ceilings
as a cold front approaching from the west. A low pressure system
will also be moving north along the Atlantic Seaboard. VFR
conditions Tuesday afternoon decreasing to MVFR.

Tuesday evening through Wednesday...Low MVFR to IFR conditions
in Rain, changing to Rainshowers Wednesday morning. Partial
clearing South to north Wednesday afternoon. Becoming MVFR BGR
and BHB Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday evening VFR BGR and BHB,
MVFR all other sites.

Thursday...VFR BHB, BGR, and HUL. MVFR CAR, PQI, and FVE with
scattered showers, ceilings will fall to Low MVFR to IFR in
showers.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gusts to 25 to 30 knots on the coastal waters will
likely diminish by late morning. Have dropped the intra-coastal
waters from the small craft advisory and extended for the
coastal waters till 10 am EDT to give the day crew time to
either allow it to expire or in a worst case extend a couple of
more hours. Both the wind and seas are expected to be below SCA
levels this afternoon through Sunday as high pressure builds
over the waters.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory Sunday
night through Tuesday morning. Winds and seas building on
Tuesday afternoon to SCA levels. These conditions are likely to
continue into Thursday evening.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
ANZ050>051.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB
Short Term...Norton
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...CB/Norton
Marine...CB/Norton


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