Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 281014
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
614 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will build in today and crest over the
area tonight. Low pressure will approach on Thursday. The low
will cross the area Thursday night into Friday as it pulls a
cold front through. High pressure will build south of the area
Saturday. Low pressure will approach on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM Update...Rain has moved away from the Downeast coast so
removed any mention of showers Downeast. Also adjusted temps a
bit. Northwestern areas have dropped into the upper 30s.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

The small weather disturbance that brought some rain along the
coast overnight will slide southeast and away today as cool high
pressure builds in from the west. This will bring a sunny, cool,
tranquil and dry day today. Highs will range from the upper 60s
northwest to the low to mid 70s Downeast. High pressure will
crest over the area tonight bringing a clear and chilly night.
Some patchy river and valley fog is likely late at night
especially over the north. Lows will range from the low 40s
north to the mid 50s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure wl be building off the coast on Thu with return flow
and more humid conds moving in. Clouds wl be increasing drg the day
as trof appchs fm the west. Cannot rule out a return of low clouds,
drizzle and possibly showers late aftn on Thu along the coast per
latest deterministic run of GFS but ensemble mean does not
necessarily support measurable pcpn until aft 00z Friday. Given the
warm and humid airmass and warmer H8 temps expected Thu, highs wl be
several degrees warmer acrs the north on Thu aftn with in the 70s
while Downeast wl not see too much difference in temps fm day to day
with onshore flow expected.

Thu night looks to feature a double barrel low set up with parent
low over Quebec while lopres dvlps late over the wrn Gulf of Maine.
00z operational runs fairly consistent with dvlpmnt btwn 06z-12z Fri
as upr lvl jet rounds the base of the trof. Given the majority of
guidance indicating widespread rain moving in for Thu night, hv
opted to retain likely-categorical pops though timing remains in
question as for dvlpmnt of coastal low. 00z NAM remains strongest
with sfc ridge axis acrs ern zones with little pcpn moving in much
before 09z. Operational guidance continues to struggle with coastal
low dvlpmnt fm run to run though 00z operational EC has support from
it`s ensemble mean.

Elevated instability appears to be enuf to warrant mention of isold
thunder acrs srn areas Fri morning with ern areas seeing tstms in
the aftn. Caveat to that wl be cool and showery conditions
preventing diurnal htg with temps running between 10-12 degrees blo
normal. Mid-level lapse rates fairly decent given cooling temps
aloft, possibly enuf to overcome lack of htg thus hv retained tstm
mention Fri afternoon.

Fri night wl see H5 low moving ewd into Canada as cyclonic flow
continues acrs the area. Showers wl continue, mainly over the St.
John Vly for Fri night with cooler and drier air working in fm the
north and west. Low temps may be able to dip into the 40s acrs the
North Woods by Sat morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Same ole broken record for the long term as upr trof wl fling
disturbances twd the region approx every 36 hours. Brief ridging is
expected Sat and Sat night with nrn zones in vicinity of weak bndry
on Sat bringing a low chc for showers while rmndr of the area looks
dry. Saturday temps wl continue to run well blo normal values. Sat
night likely to see temps dip into the 40s acrs the north and lwr
50s over central and southern areas.

Next system moves in fm the west Sun afternoon into Sun night,
depending on guidance. H5 heights wl approach the 595 dm mark over
the Rockie Mountains, leading to continued troughing to east of the
MS River. Rainy and cool temps wl be the predominant theme into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
VFR conditions can be expected today and tonight as high
pressure builds in from the northwest. The exception may be some
patchy valley fog late tonight which could lower conditions to
MVFR or briefly IFR in some spots. Winds will be light, from
the northwest today then light and variable tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Thu...VFR with potential for MVFR/IFR late for Downeast
terminals. SW 5-10kts.

Thu night-Fri...MVFR/IFR conditions in rain and embedded tstms.
S 5-10kts becoming WNW Fri afternoon and gusty.

Fri night...IFR/LIFR for northern terminals with VFR Downeast.
Improvement across the north late. WNW 5-15kts.

Sat-Sat night...Mainly VFR with localized MVFR possible across
the north in showers. W 5-15kts.

Sun...VFR early, lowering to MVFR in the afternoon. SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Wind and seas will be below SCA today and tonight. Drier air
pushing down from the north will bring good visibility.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds through
the weekend. Visibilities will be reduced in fog late Thu
night. May see shower and thunderstorms Fri morning.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Bloomer/Farrar
Marine...Bloomer/Farrar


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