Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 212323
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
623 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west tonight and Friday and
crest over the area Friday night into Saturday. Low pressure
will approach from the southwest Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
6:23 pm update: Low pressure over northern Maine will pull east
into New Brunswick this evening. Colder and drier air will
filter into the FA tonight in the wake of the low. There are
still areas of light snow falling across mainly the northern
half of the FA, and any add`l accums will be less than an inch
this evening. The sky will remain cloudy across northern areas
through this evening with the clouds breaking up some overnight.
Down East there are more breaks in the clouds with a partly
cloudy sky this evening and a mainly clear sky overnight. It
turns colder overnight with lows by morning mostly in the single
digits far north to the upper teens in the Greater Bangor
Region with 20s along the immediate coast. Made some minor
tweaks based mostly on the latest observations and radar trends.


Previous discussion:
Low pressure will continue to track away to the east tonight. A
surface trough hanging back across the north may allow some
flurries and snow showers to continue over northern areas early
this evening. Otherwise, tonight will become partly cloudy north
and mostly clear Downeast as the low continues to move away and
high pressure begins to build in from the west. This will be
followed by a dry, breezy and seasonable day Friday as high
pressure builds closer. The north will remain partly cloudy with
just a bit of moisture sliding in from the northwest while
Downeast becomes mostly clear. The breeze will diminish Friday
night as high pressure builds in. Some moisture continuing to
linger over the north will bring a partly cloudy sky to the
north while Downeast remains mostly clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A quiet and cool Saturday with high pressure overhead as the
ridge crests during the afternoon. This downstream amplification
is a result of digging trough in the west ahead of next dynamic
system Sunday into Monday.

Low pressure will strengthen over the Texas Panhandle Saturday
evening and track into the Great Lakes through Sunday morning.
Potent 500mb jet will track from the Plains and orient across
the Ohio Valley with exit region supporting surface low
development off the New England coast. This will create a
overrunning snow event for Maine with all locations beginning as
snow Sunday morning. Timing has trended slower, as have
temperatures cooler. This is in anticipation of secondary low
pressure development limiting the amount of southerly warm air
advection. Will need to keep an eye on wind components and how
influential cold air damming will be. This would keep lower
levels cool, while warm nose looks to move in aloft. As a
result, have put a transition to sleet and snow across much of
Downeast. If a coastal front develops, further limitation of
warm air moving in will result, but not enough to keep immediate
coast below freezing, resulting in rain.

System will begin to exit Sunday night as Monday highs could be
set before daybreak in portions of Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pres is expected to pull through the Maritimes on Monday. We
will be dealing w/some wrap around snow mainly across the north
and west. Decided to go w/60-70% pops for Monday across the
northern 1/2 of the CWA and run w/20-40% into the Maine Central
Highlands and portions of interior Downeast. WNW winds will be
cranking on Monday w/the tight pres gradient. Followed GYX`s
thinking and increased the wind speeds going w/sustained speeds
of 15-25 mph and gust potential to 35+ mph. This will lead to
blowing and drifting snow especially for the northern and
western areas. Downeast areas might see limited blowing/drifting
due to the mixed precip that is possible Sunday night. Near
normal temps for Monday. Arctic air arriving Monday night and
w/winds staying above 10 mph, there could be some wind chills to
deal with overnight into Tuesday morning. High pres is expected
to settle across the region later Tuesday night and remain in
control through Thursday. We could be looking at some very cold
temps Wednesday morning and again Thursday morning w/many sites
across the north and west seeing readings well below 0F.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions in variable low clouds and some snow
showers over the north this evening will improve to VFR around
mid evening, but MVFR ceilings may persist until after midnight
at KFVE. VFR conditions will persist later tonight through
Friday night as high pressure moves in.

SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be VFR into Saturday
evening and then a deterioration to MVFR later Saturday night.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate on Sunday into Monday
to IFR/LIFR w/snow and increasing winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA will continue through Friday morning for
northwest winds gusting up to 25 kt. Winds will diminish Friday
afternoon into Friday night as high pressure builds in.

SHORT TERM: No headlines into Saturday night w/winds down to
10-15 kts and seas 2-3 ft. Seas will build on Sunday w/winds
increasing from SE. We could be looking at Gales later Sunday
right into Monday as the 2nd low is expected to develop along
coast and intensify as it moves NE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The seasonal snowfall total is up to 135.8" as of 4 pm EST at
Caribou. This is just shy of the winter of 2007-2008 when 137.6"
of snow had been observed through February 21st. 2007-2008 went
on to become the snowy winter on record at Caribou with a total
of 197.8".

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/CB
Short Term...Cornwell/Hewitt
Long Term...Cornwell/Hewitt
Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Cornwell/Hewitt
Marine...Bloomer/CB/Cornwell/Hewitt
Climate...CB


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