Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181044
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
544 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Radar trends are quickly ending rain across the south central
Kansas counties early this morning. Light northeasterly surface
winds will quickly ramp with gusts beginning almost immediately
after insolation begins mixing by mid morning. Gusts upwards of 40
mph should be common in the afternoon based on MOS and model
guidance. NAM/WRF is showing mid level differential vorticity
advection moving though midday in a weakly unstable environment.
Cold probably assume a few isolated thunderstorms possible from
early afternoon into the early evening.

Tonight, light north winds resume.  The upper ridge will provide
subsidence to build a center of surface high pressure gradually
over eastern Colorado by very early Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Temperatures will be moderating back towards warm conditions Friday
and should be in the 80s again area wide by Saturday with broad dry
southwest flow pattern at 850 mb and light south surface wind. The
NAM/WRf supports the ECMWF up through Saturday night just before
another surface cold front pushes through Saturday night. Then
heading into next week, the GFS and ECMWF both bring a series of
upper troughs and surface fronts into the central High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Only some patchy mid level ceilings were noted on the various
GOES channels in far southwest Kansas, not impacting or expected
to impact any of the terminals. The winds will quickly mix out
this morning and gusts into the upper 30s (kts) by late morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Fire weather risk today will be mainly driven by windy conditions
and dry fuels as the cooler post frontal temperatures will generally
limit how dry relative humidity can get (now forecasting mid to
upper 20s in most cases for minimum afternoon RH). Nevertheless, the
fire weather will be in the ELEVATED category in the afternoon,
basically everywhere west of Cedar Bluff to Coldwater line.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  34  70  45 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  64  33  71  43 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  64  38  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  66  36  73  44 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  63  37  69  43 /  30  10   0   0
P28  67  37  70  44 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell


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