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000
FXUS63 KDDC 191630
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1130 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Full sunshine in progress across SW KS at midday, sending
temperatures well above normal once again this afternoon. There
has been a few degrees of cooling at 850 mb compared to previous
days, so most locations will hold in the lower 90s, compared to
the mid 90s. S/SE winds gusting near 30 mph will maintain boundary
layer dewpoints in the 60s all afternoon, with CAPE increasing to
2000-3000 J/kg. All models, CAMs and otherwise, agree on scattered
thunderstorm development after 3 pm, beginning across the
western/SW zones first, and then subsequently spreading
northeastward. A subtle wave in the SW flow should easily
encourage convective development, especially given the full
insolation, and the 5% marginal wind/hail probabilities from SPC
are justified. CAPE and limited shear will support mainly strong
multicells, with wind gusts to 50-60 mph and up to quarter size
hail. Model consensus continues to favor coverage across the
western 1/2 of the CWA (west of US 283) through this evening.
Activity should wane before reaching much of the eastern/NE zones.

The persistently warm overnight/morning temperatures continue
tonight, holding in the mid/upper 60s at sunrise Friday. MOS
guidance is several degrees too cool and was ignored. Increasing
mid level clouds are expected overnight. Another wave embedded in
the SW flow aloft will approach near sunrise, spreading rain
showers (perhaps embedded thunder) into the western zones early
Friday.

Welcomed cooler temperatures are expected on Friday, courtesy of
cloud cover and showers. Models are changing their tune on
Friday`s weather, with 12z NAM and 4km NAM now keeping thick
clouds and persistent showers across SW KS through at least
midday Friday. 12z GFS also shows notable cooling at 850 mb
Friday, down to the 18C range. NAM-based guidance suggests areas
that stay under clouds/showers all day will hold in the 70s. Will
trim max temp grids on Friday, but any cloud breaks will send
temperatures into the 80s in only a few minutes, so remained
above the coolest guidance. Temperature forecasts directly linked
to sunshine availability are difficult to say the least. Obviously
a cooler boundary layer in SW KS would force any trough/dryline
stronger storm development westward to near the CO/KS border
(perhaps SE CO) as several CAMs suggest. Another risk of severe
storms will exist Friday afternoon/evening, focusing on the
western zones (west of US 83) where the atmosphere has the most
opportunity to recover from morning activity and overturning.
Primary risk from any supercell storms across the western zones
Friday afternoon/evening will be large hail.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Another chance of storms will be possible again Friday
afternoon/evening but be more confined to far western Kansas.
Otherwise expect clear to partly cloudy skies and continued
southerly winds. Over the weekend, a frontal boundary will slowly
sag southward across Kansas and stall out. This will bring another
chance of thunderstorms to the area. However, this time it looks
like central Kansas will have the best shot at measurable
precipitation. It well also dependent on where this frontal
boundary is located and where the main lift will be in place.
Models then suggest another closed low to be in place over the
Four Corners Region early to mid part of next week. This will
bring more chances of precipitation to western Kansas as
shortwaves swing around its periphery. However, it is too early to
tell exactly what areas will have the best chance of
precipitation. As for temperatures, highs look to rise into the
mid to upper 80s with the exception of Sunday when lower 80s will
be possible. Lows will generally range from the mid 50s to around
70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

South winds of 18-28 kts are expected at the airports this
afternoon. After 21z, high confidence that scattered thunderstorms
will develop, near LBL first, and then spreading NE to potentially
impact GCK/DDC through 02z Fri. Some direct thunderstorm impacts
are possible at these terminals, with wind gusts to 45 kts.
Convection is expected to remain west of HYS before dissipating.
Midlevel clouds will increase overnight with light SE winds.
Scattered showers are expected to develop 12-15z Fri, especially
along and west of a GCK-LBL line, with lowering cigs, perhaps down
to MVFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  66  87  67 /  10  20  20  20
GCK  91  65  87  64 /  20  30  20  30
EHA  90  64  87  63 /  40  40  20  20
LBL  92  65  87  64 /  40  40  20  20
HYS  92  68  85  68 /  10  20  20  10
P28  92  67  85  69 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner