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000
FXUS63 KDDC 182255
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
455 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2020

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2020

Relatively dry conditions will continue tonight into early
Wednesday despite an intensifying and increasingly difluent zonal
flow aloft downstream of an approaching upper level shortwave.
Although short term model soundings show some influx of moisture
in the mid/upper levels, drier air is expected to remain predominate
closer to the surface. Still, a few flurries or even a brief period
of light snow cannot be ruled out moving into the daytime hours
Wednesday. Little if any snow accumulations are expected through
much of Wednesday afternoon. As for temperatures, the colder air
mass across the Western High Plains will be reinforced by surface
high pressure shifting from the Northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest through tonight. Expect lows generally down into the 20s(F).
The colder air mass will be slow to erode if at all Wednesday as
a southeast upslope flow prevails through much of the day. Along
with increased cloud cover, look for highs only up into the 30s(F)
in central and portions of southwest Kansas with a few lower 40s(F)
possible closer to the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2020

Precip chances pick up considerably early in the period as medium
range models remain in fair agreement indicating an upper level
shortwave trough axis shifting eastward across the Great Basin into
the Colorado Rockies Wednesday night, resulting in an intensifying
westerly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, the
NAM/GFS/GEM retain a modest development of H7 frontogenetic banding
bisecting western Kansas west to east, generally early to mid-evening
Wednesdsay with the strongest forcing noted near the Colorado border.
This also coincides with model soundings indicating vertical profiles
finally saturating mainly after 03Z. As a result, light to moderate
snow will be possible across portions of western Kansas as the evening
progresses with snow spreading slowly eastward overnight. Potential
snow accumulations and where the axis of highest snowfall occurs
remains a bit uncertain. QPF fields have trended downward with the
latest runs of the NAM and ECMWF, while the GFS/GEM continue a more
bullish view. Could see widespread light amounts with localized higher
amounts associated with the strongest forcing, potentially in excess
of 2 inches.

Fairly tranquil conditions are then likely late Thursday through
Saturday morning as weak ridging aloft is projected to transition
east across the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains
during the period.

Temperatures will be well below normal Thursday as colder air spreads
southward into western Kansas behind a cold frontal passage projected
to move through sometime Wednesday night. Highs could very well
struggle to climb out of the 20s(F) if at all. A warming trend is
likely Friday into Saturday as the aforementioned upper level ridge
moves out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. Expect
highs to be more seasonal by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 455 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2020

VFR is expected to continue through daylight Wednesday, with
gradually lowering ceilings. High confidence that flying
conditions will degrade sharply with IFR/LIFR stratus and light
snow after the end of this TAF cycle, during the 00-12z Thu time
range. Until then, all airports will remain dry through 21z Wed,
with thickening/lowering VFR cloud decks. Winds will trend light
SEly tonight, and SE winds will gust 20-25 kts after 15z Wed.
Expect SE winds to trend NEly toward the end of this TAF cycle,
and remain NEly during the expected light snowfall Wednesday
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  35  19  29 /  10  30  80  20
GCK  24  34  18  29 /  10  40  80  20
EHA  25  41  20  30 /  10  30  70  30
LBL  24  38  19  30 /  10  30  80  30
HYS  23  35  18  30 /  10  40  60  10
P28  27  41  23  33 /  10  20  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Wednesday to 6
AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday for KSZ043-044-061>063-074.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner