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000
FXUS63 KDDC 270850
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
350 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

A drying trend will begin during this Short Term period as the large
summer subtropical high across the Rockies will expand its influence
east across the Central and Northern Plains, effectively creating a
larger area of deep tropospheric subsidence preventing organized
thunderstorm activity. That said, a rogue, small, short-lived
thunderstorm is always possible this time of year given a fairly
weak cap along with rather high precipitable water values. It will
not be enough, though, to warrant 15+ POPs for mentionable
precipitation in the official forecast (Tuesday and Wednesday both).
We will see afternoon temperatures continue to ascend each day
toward 100 degrees: mid 90s today and upper 90s for much of the area
Wednesday. We will have to monitor potential for excessive heat in
the eastern counties in the event that areas like Hays to Pratt to
Medicine Lodge hold on to dewpoints at or near 70 degrees with
afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s, close to 100. If so, heat
indices will touch 105 degrees. This is a low confidence forecast,
however, so as of this morning`s update, there will be no headline
in place for excessive heat for any of our (NWS DDC) counties.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

The Long Term period will be characterized by continued hot
temperatures, at least through Saturday, as the summer subtropical
high remains fixed across the central CONUS. By Friday and
especially Saturday, though, the upper high will shift to the south
as the hemispheric pattern becomes increasingly amplified with
lowering mid level heights across the Northern Plains and especially
the Upper Midwest region. One or more disturbances rippling through
the increasingly amplified pattern Friday through Sunday will aid in
pushing a cold front down into Kansas. The latest forecast timing of
this front across the southwest Kansas region looks to be late in
the day or evening Saturday. Before the front moves through,
afternoon highs will be around 100 degrees each day Thursday through
Saturday. Saturday could be the hottest day as the lower
tropospheric thermal ridge noses across west central/southwest
Kansas ahead of the front. Going into the weekend, precipitation
chances will be on the increase with the front in the vicinity. The
latest global models, particularly the latest ECMWF model, suggest
that the longwave trough will remain in place to our east as the
depleted summer high is displaced well to the southwest across
southern Californa/Arizona. In this pattern, western Kansas would
see below normal temperatures well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Aviation weather will be quiet this TAF period, as no new organized
thunderstorm is expected through this period. Prevailing wind will
remain out of the south to southeast, but speeds are expected to
remain in the 7 to 11 knot range for the most part, even during the
afternoon hours Tuesday, given the fairly weak pressure gradient in
place across much of Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  72  99  71 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  95  69  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  95  69  99  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  95  70  97  69 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  97  72  99  71 /   0   0   0   0
P28  98  74 100  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid