209
FXUS63 KDDC 151658
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1158 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot today with temperatures near the century mark in some
  areas.

- Increasing thunderstorm chances (50-70%) late Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

WV imagery indicates a general westerly flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

Very minimal thunderstorm chances (20%) return to northern portions
of western Kansas late tonight into early Wednesday morning as the
SREF continues to show a weak upper level shortwave trough
transitioning east through the Northern Plains, ushering an attendant
frontal boundary southeast through northeast Colorado/southwest
Nebraska before it is projected to stall out in vicinity of northwest
Kansas. Meanwhile, prevailing southerlies ahead of a gradually
deepening surface low in southeast Colorado will reinforce pooling
moisture across all of central/western Kansas, providing sufficient
instability. Although a weak disorganized flow aloft, marginal
capping, and lack of trigger mechanism will hinder storm development
across much of central/southwest Kansas, isolated thunderstorms still
cannot be ruled out along and north of the stalled boundary to our
north, and potentially in a field of steep mid-level lapse rates
in vicinity of increased low level convergence associated with the
trough axis/dryline in extreme eastern Colorado. This outside chance
seems to fall in line with the latest HREF/NBM pointing to only a
10% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch in isolated
areas on the periphery of west central Kansas and the I-70 corridor
by late evening.

Significant thunderstorm chances (50-70%) arrive late Wednesday as
a secondary upper level shortwave trough kicks east through the
northern Colorado Rockies into the high plains of northeast Colorado
and southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas, in turn dislodging the
aforementioned stalled frontal boundary southward through southwest
Kansas into northern Oklahoma Wednesday evening. Considering
persistent ample moisture/instability present combined with steepening
mid-level lapse rates from peak daytime heating, thunderstorm
development is expected sometime by Wednesday evening as H5 vort
maxima begin to eject out of the Colorado Rockies, interacting with
said boundary. This is supported by the NBM indicating a 30-50%
probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch across much
of southwest Kansas northeast up into the I-70 corridor in central
Kansas by early Thursday morning.

A warming trend continues today as prevailing southerlies further
enhance warm air advection into the high plains, pushing H85
temperatures well above 25C in central Kansas to a little above 30C
near the Colorado line. With the HREF painting a widespread 70-90%
probability of temperatures exceeding 95F today, look for afternoon
highs up into the mid/upper 90s(F) to near 100F is some locations.
Similar temperatures are likely Wednesday before the aforementioned
frontal boundary begins to shift southward late in the day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025


Impacts to aviation later this evening will be limited however
a plume of smoke from a New Mexico fire may be reducing
visibility in haze to the MVFR category (3-5 SM) for a while
from mid evening through the overnight. A surface cold front
approaching the area will be another area of surface mass
convergence where shallow fog could develop north of the
forecast area toward 10-13z, however at this time HREF
probabilities are only up to the 20% threshold for less than one
half mile visibility across the KS/NE line. The gusty southwest
winds ongoing will cease late evening (04-07z), and drop to
around 10 knots through the morning before mixing resumes around
10 am and gusts up to 20-23 kts return.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell