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000
FXUS63 KDDC 221852
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
152 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

A cool dome of high pressure will move across western Kansas
overnight as an upper level ridge axis remains nearly stationary
over the Rockies. Clear/mostly clear skies and light winds will
allow the lows tonight to fall back into the 50s across western
Kansas. Record or near record low temperatures will be possible
near and north of Garden City and Dodge City as temperatures fall
back into the low to mid 50s by early Tuesday morning. The record
low for Dodge City on the 7/23 is 55 degrees and Garden City is
54.

Tuesday will be another cool day given that the easterly flow in
the lower levels will be continuing across western Kansas . At
this it appears that the 00z Wednesday 850mb temperatures will be
very similar to the 850mb temperatures at 00z Tuesday. As a result
the previous forecast for highs on Tuesday still look on track
with afternoon temperatures climbing into low to mid 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

An upper level trough will cross the Pacific northwest and
approach the northern Rockies mid week. As this upper level trough
approaches the northern Rockies mid week an upper level ridge,
located over the Rockies early in the week, will begin to weaken
as it shifts east into the Plains. This will result in improving
downslope flow as a trough of low pressure at the surface develops
across eastern Colorado. The cooler air that was located across
western Kansas early in the week will start to erode from west to
east late week and given the warming trend forecast in the 850mb
to 700mb level the current warming trend from Wednesday through
the weekend still looks on track. The current highs however late
week and over the weekend may be on the cool side. If the models
are correct with the warming trend in the 850mb to 700mb level and
the cold front remains north of the Kansas/Nebraska border then
the potential exists for highs over the weekend to be around 100
degrees.

There will be a chance for late day and evening thunderstorms
near a surface boundary that will be developing over eastern
Colorado mid week. Given the forecast location of this surface
boundary and flow aloft mid week it currently appears that any of
these storms will not move into far western Kansas. The chance for
evening thunderstorms however will improve late week given that
this surface boundary is expected move east to near the
Colorado/Kansas border by late Friday as an upper level trough
exits the Northern Rockies and moves out into the Northern Plains.
This surface boundary will not move much over the weekend so the
chance for late day and overnight storms will continue Saturday
and Sunday as several weaker upper level waves exit the Rockies
and move out into the Plains.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Northeast winds at around 10 knots early this afternoon will
become light and variable after sunset as an area of high pressure
at the surface moves across western Kansas. Southeast winds at 10
knots or less will develop between 15z and 18z Tuesday. The MVFR
ceilings near Liberal at 17z will give way to VFR conditions
between 18z and 19z today. BUFR soundings then indicating VFR
conditions can be expected through the remainder of the day and
tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  58  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  82  56  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  82  60  85  61 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  83  58  83  60 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  82  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
P28  86  59  83  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert