Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1158 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

...Updated for aviation discussion...

Issued at 816 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Shallow cold air and moist upslope southeasterly flow will persist
today. In these cases we have learned that one must undercut all
the model guidance or perhaps not even bcome biased by looking at
it. A moist southeasterly wind is not a warm wind when cold air
is in place to the southeast. Locations on the higher terrain in
extreme southwestern Kansas will warm up today, as is typical in
these patterns due to the shallow nature of the cold air. But
locations along and east of a line from Leoti to Cimarron to
Ashland will stay cold. Areas of dense fog have developed in
far southwestern Kansas this morning and the forecast is being
updated to reflect this.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

There remains an chance for winter precip this afternoon through
this evening as an upper level shortwave trough moves out of the
Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains late today. Low
pressure already developing across eastern Colorado is projected
to become organized as it shifts southeast into the panhandles of
Oklahoma and Texas this afternoon, in turn creating an axis of
increased lift across central and northern portions of western
Kansas just as H5 vort maxima begin to eject out of the Central
Rockies into the high plains this afternoon. Additionally, an
extremely strong +170kt upper level jet is expected to exit
eastward out of the Desert Southwest then lift northeast across
the Central Plains setting up a left exit region across much of
eastern and central Kansas. This set up may trigger periods of
light precip across portions of central Kansas, including near the
I-70 corridor, late today through this evening. Vertical sounding
profiles suggest primarily snow possible, but cannot rule out
sleet/freezing drizzle.

As for temperatures, a prevailing east-southeast upslope flow will
do very little to erode the cold air mass settled across the high
plains of western Kansas today. Along with likely increased cloud
cover through much of the day, look for highs only up into the 20s
and 30s(F) this afternoon with a few 40s(F) possible further south
and west if some clearing takes place. The lower 50s(F) are even
possible in extreme southwest Kansas if a developing westerly
downslope flow associated with the deepening low can edge into the
area in question. Expect lows back down into the teens/20s(F)

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 233 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Precip chances return Sunday night through early next week as medium
range models continue to show a series of H5 vort maxima ejecting
northeast across the Southern Rockies into the Western High Plains
as upper level troughing in the Intermountain West begins to deepen
across the Desert Southwest. As upper level disturbances continue to
pulse out into the high plains, periods of light snow will be possible
through at least Tuesday night before the shortwave trough finally
begins to push eastward into the South Plains.

Another cold front will push through western Kansas Sunday allowing
for another surge of colder air to spill into the high plains. Expect
highs generally up into the 30s(F) with the lower 40s(F) possible
further south closer to the Oklahoma border. The coldest air arrives
Monday and holds on through Tuesday with highs only up into the
teens/20s(F) both days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Areas of freezing fog will persist through early afternoon
given the moist and cold southeasterly upslope flow. LIFR/IFR
CIGS will gradually improve through 06z to MVFR as upslope flow
changes to light downslope as an upper level disturbances passes
off to the east.


DDC  26  20  37  11 /   0  10   0  20
GCK  31  19  36  12 /   0  10   0  30
EHA  57  19  41  12 /   0  10   0  60
LBL  46  19  39  13 /   0  10   0  40
HYS  20  16  29   9 /  30  20   0  10
P28  25  22  39  15 /  20  20   0   0




LONG TERM...JJohnson
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