Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 252053
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
253 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 137 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Through Tonight: Subsidence /sfc pressure rises/ in the wake of a
shortwave digging SSE-SE from the Northern Plains to the Central
MS River Valley will result in dry conditions through tonight,
with Friday morning low ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Fri-Fri night: A shortwave moving ashore the PAC NW late tonight
will track east across the Northern Rockies (Fri) and Northern
Plains (Fri night). A broad lee cyclone will develop downstream of
the Rockies in WY/CO on Friday -- then track east across the
Central/Northern Plains Friday night as the aforementioned
shortwave progresses into SD/NE. Southerly flow on the eastern
periphery of the developing lee cyclone will result in modest
low-level moisture return beneath steep mid-level lapse rates Fri
afternoon, yielding 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE. Convective
coverage/probability remain somewhat uncertain given that the
majority of upper forcing will (1) remain north of the Tri-State
area and (2) won`t arrive until late Fri night. Low-level
convergence invof the lee cyclone may (perhaps) be sufficient for
convective initiation late Fri afternoon. Alternately (and more
likely), convection developing along the CO Front Range and
Palmer Divide may simply propagate downstream into eastern CO and
extreme western KS during the aft/eve, primarily between 21-03Z.
Deep layer shear will likely be sufficient for updraft rotation
/supercells/, however, instability will rapidly wane with loss of
heating. With very little spatiotemporal overlap in
thermodynamics/kinematics, any potential for severe weather
appears to be brief/isold, at best.

Sat-Sat Night: Strong NW winds are expected between 12-18Z
Saturday, in association with low-level cold advection /pressure
rises/ on the western periphery of the lee cyclone progressing
east across the Central/Northern Plains. Forecast soundings
suggest anywhere from 40-50 knot NW flow within a deepening mixed
layer several hours after sunrise -- strongest along/east of
Highway 83 where sustained winds may reach 30-40 mph with gusts
up to 55 mph. High Wind Warning criteria cannot be ruled out
(esp. invof Hill City) late Saturday morning, however, until the
parent shortwave moves ashore the PAC NW Friday morning,
confidence in the evolution of the lee cyclone (and low level
height/wind fields) remains too low to warrant issuance of a High
Wind Watch at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2019

The current model runs covering the extended period indicates an
active pattern. They show upper level disturbances, along with their
associated cold fronts, impacting the Central High Plains region on
Sunday afternoon/evening, Monday night and Tuesday, and Wednesday.

Stayed with what superblend gave as models are in agreement with
overall pattern; even through they differ in regard to timing.

Most of the impacts these days will be rainshowers; however, there
is a possibility of thunderstorms on Sunday and Wednesday. There is
even a chance that the northwestern part of the forecast area could
see snow showers early Tuesday morning if the overnight temperatures
get low enough.

Afternoon temperatures during this period will start out above
normal on Sunday (lower to middle 70s), before dropping below normal
on Monday and Tuesday (lower to middle 50s), then reach back to near
normal (middle 60s) by next Thursday. While overnight lows will
range from the lower 30s to lower 40s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2019

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Breezy NNW-N
winds this afternoon will weaken AOA sunset this evening, becoming
light/variable by 02-03Z. Winds will remain light/variable for the
majority of tonight -- then shift to the south at ~15 knots by
sunrise Friday. Southerly winds will strengthen to 20-30 knots
shortly thereafter (12-14Z) and persist through the duration of
the morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...VINCENT


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