Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270722
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
122 AM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 114 AM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021

The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis along with mid level water vapor
continue to show a large dome of high pressure over much of the
western portion of the country, and a trough east. Latest models
continue to show the upper ridge to shift over the Plains region
during the short term period. Over the next 72 hours, surface
conditions will keep a southerly fetch over the area, as lee-side
troughing over the eastern Rockies and high pressure east sets up
the expected gradient, and subsequent WAA.

The result of the aforementioned will keep the entire area under hot
conditions, peaking Wednesday into Thursday. While mainly dry
conditions expected, a boundary setting up along our northern tier
zones, could be the focal point for a few isolated rw/trw Thursday
night.

For temps, highs today will range in the mid to upper 90s, but going
into Wednesday and on Thursday, the area will see a range from the
upper 90s into the lower 100s. Overnight lows will have a general
range from the mid 60s west through the mid 70s east. Temps along
the northern tier late Thursday could be affected by the low chance
for clouds/precip.

Heat indices off these high temps along with RH readings during the
afternoon/early evening hours give areas today along/east of Hwy 83
into the low 100s. This will keep the Heat Advisory going currently,
but numbers will marginal and close to criteria. Going into
Wednesday though, confidence increases more so that another Advisory
has been issued for mainly eastern areas. These locales will have an
increased areal coverage nearer to criteria. The same could be seen
on Thursday, but will hold off on any issuance for now.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 121 AM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Very little change in the extended forecast as the ridge remains
dominant over the High Plains as we enter August. Over the weekend,
the high is expected to shift SE into the eastern TX/OK area by
Sunday as an upper level trough tries to push east over Western
Canada and the Pacific Northwest. While the low attempts to come
ashore, the ridge is expected to amplify over the Intermountain West
creating an omega shape in the upper level pattern. A large area of
low pressure over the Hudson Bay and Quebec in eastern Canada will
deepen Saturday into Sunday. With the strengthening low to the east,
the High Plains will be subject to NW flow with shortwaves traveling
along the eastern edge of the ridge.

At the surface, a lee trough is expected to remain stationary along
the Front Range through Friday night. The trough will assist with
the development of storms off the Front Range Friday during the
afternoon and evening hours. Confidence is not very high for how far
any storms make it into our east-central CO counties before
dissipating. The trough will begin to peel off the Rockies Saturday
and slowly make it`s way across the western half of the area.
Precipitation chances look better Saturday afternoon and evening
with storms developing to our west and spreading eastward. The
trough will continue to move east across the area Sunday while a
cold front moves in from the N-NNE. That said, there is potential
for more storms during the afternoon and evening. Storm chances
repeat on Monday as another lee trough moves in along the Rockies
along with some moisture. PWAT values of 1-1.8" continue to show
potential for any storms to produce heavy rain and possibly
localized flash flooding this weekend and Monday. It`s too early to
gain specifics on the storm potential, but given the PWAT values the
end of the period will need to be monitored in case any flash flood
highlights are needed as we move closer to end of the week.

Temperatures are currently forecast to start a cooling trend
compared to the heat at the beginning of this week. Highs on Friday
are expected to be in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. Heat indices
are currently expected to be in the 90s with a few locales
approaching 100 mainly east of US-83. Overnight lows are expected to
be in the 60s to mid 70s. Saturday, portions of east-central CO
could see highs in the upper 80s while the remainder of the area
sees the 90s. The 80s are expected to become more widespread on
Sunday; however, a few locations along the Palmer Divide could see
highs as low as the upper 70s. Overnight lows on Saturday and Sunday
are forecast to be in the 60s. Temperatures on Monday are currently
forecast to be in the 80s area wide for highs and in the 60s for
overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 945 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at
KGLD and KMCK terminals. Light south winds continue through the
overnight hours, then shift to the southeast by 20z, gusting
around 20 knots or so through 01z.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 121 AM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Record high temperatures for the remainder of the week:
------------------------------------------------------------------
                 7/27      7/28      7/29      7/30      7/31
------------------------------------------------------------------
Goodland KS    105/1910  106/1943  104/1947  106/1935  105/2002

Burlington CO  103/1960  102/1947  100/2012+ 101/2005  102/2002

Hill City KS   106/1956  110/1940  108/1917  109/1976  113/1934

McCook NE      109/1931  105/2012+ 109/1947  105/2002+ 107/2002

Colby KS       108/1931  109/1943  105/1947  109/1935  108/1935

Yuma CO        104/2011  103/1959  104/1947  104/2005+ 107/2002

Tribune KS     106/1936  105/1943  105/2012  106/2012  107/1934
------------------------------------------------------------------

(+) denotes multiple year records

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ003-004-016.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ003-004-015-
     016.

CO...NONE.
NE...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ080-081.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...JBH
CLIMATE...JN/JBH


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