Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 180854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
254 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Latest upper air and satellite analysis show a long wave trough over
the Plains.  Within the trough was a short wave trough that had
helped maintain storm development over Kansas into Missouri.  At the
surface a cold front was moving south into the Tri-State Area.
Behind the front low clouds were moving in.

Today the front will move through most of the forecast area before
noon then stall near the southern and western borders of the
forecast area.  The overcast sky behind the front will clear by
early afternoon as temperatures warm causing the dew point
depressions in the cloud layer to widen.  With the cooler air mass
in place highs will be almost 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Meanwhile am not expecting any storm development today due to
laminar flow over the forecast area and a surface high in place.

Tonight the surface high will shift east of the forecast area.  As
it does so the southerly winds will bring in higher dew points. Area
soundings show the first thousand feet or so above ground saturating
after midnight.  Currently have patching fog mentioned, however
would not be surprised if wide spread dense fog forms before sunrise
Monday morning, especially east of Highway 25.

Monday the forecast area will still be in the cooler air mass.
However warmer air will begin to filter in due to the light
southerly winds.  The stationary front will still be near the
western border.  During the late afternoon and early evening a weak
upper level short wave trough will develop over the front.  The
surface wind field shows weak convergence over western Yuma and Kit
Carson County borders.  With a narrow corridor of mixed layer CIN
low enough for storms to form, added a mention of isolated storms
for the early evening there.  Further east there may be some
isolated storms as a weak upper level short wave trough moves over
the nose of the LLJ.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019

At the start of the extended period the National Blended Model (MBM)
continues to have dry conditions Tuesday Morning; followed by a very
active period Tuesday afternoon through Friday morning.

The models support the MBM as there will be an upper-level ridge
over the region with surface ridging over the Southeast and into the
southern Plains. Tuesday will be the hottest days during this period
with the afternoon highs reaching the middle to upper 90s.

Tuesday afternoon the ridging will give way to a surface front that
is expected to move into the region from the north. This front will
impact the area with cooler temperatures, showers, and thunderstorms
(most likely severe). This front looks to stall and become
stationary over the central High Plains by Thursday, extending the
impacts. Along this boundary, anticipate a low to develop and move
out of the area by Friday afternoon. The high temperature during
this time will be in the middle 80s to lower 90s range.

Behind this developing low system, high pressure will build back
over the region from the west; influencing the area with dry
conditions for the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For Kgld, vfr conditions and south winds near 10 knots are
expected until 12z. From 12z to 16z mvfr conditions are expected
as winds shift to the north at 8 knots. At 16z vfr conditions
return as north winds near 10 knots continue. At 18z the winds
shift to the northeast at 10 knots and will continue til 20z when
they shift to the east at 8 knots.

For Kmck, vfr conditions are expected until 12z. The west winds at
6 knots will shift to the north at 8 knots at 10z. From 12z to 17z
mvfr conditions and north winds 10 knots are expected. At 17z vfr
conditions return for the rest of the period as north northeast at
10 knots. At 00z, the winds will shift to the east at 6 knots.




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