Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 270455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1155 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

For 06z TAF issuance.


Added TSRA mention first hour at KLCH based on latest radar
trends, then TEMPO for light fog closer to sunrise based on wet
grounds/decent radiating conditions...otherwise no significant
changes to previous TAF thinking.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 942 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have continued to develop this
evening well after sunset likely as a result of some outflow
convergence from the stronger clusters of thunderstorms in and
around Jackson, MS. The HRRR is depicting the current storms
relatively well and shows continued isolated development through
the late evening with the isolated convection moving offshore, as
is typical, early tomorrow morning. Adjusted PoPs modestly to
reflect this thinking.

Better cloud cover and convection still expected tomorrow as the
influence of the upper ridge centered over Colorado and Wyoming
becomes less prevalent. This will keep heat indices below
advisory criteria across the area for the first time in three days
although afternoon highs will still climb into the mid 90s where
storms do not develop.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

For 00z TAF issuance.

No significant changes to previous TAF thinking. Diurnal
convection, although spotty, continues at this time across the
region...this activity should be winding down now that we approach
sunset/loss of heating. Overnight, VFR conditions look to prevail
although we will have to watch for light fog potential later
tonight around areas that got rainfall today. Today looks like a
repeat of today, although with a little more convective coverage
given less capping aloft per forecast soundings as the mid-level
ridge looks to weaken.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

Latest UA analysis and WV imagery show a broad and sprawling
anticyclonic pattern from the Intermountain West east acrs the
plains into the southeast. A few weak disturbances are noted
within and around the expansive ridge, including a couple of weak
impulses over the western and northeast Gulf of Mexico. At the
sfc, weak high pres acrs the region was resulting in light and
generally vrbl winds, while a weak trough was noted over the cntl
and eastern Gulf.

KLCH radar shows sctd showers and storms developing from NE LA
southward to the lower Atchafalaya Basin, within an axis of 2+
inch PWATs. Activity was drifting west to southwest. Elsewhere,
some very sparse isolated showers have struggled to develop.

Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures have risen into the middle
90s acrs much of the area. Corresponding heat index readings have
been abv 100 degrees, with a few spots around 108.


SHORT TERM [Tonight through Wednesday night]...

The aforementioned showers and storms will continue to develop
through late aftn as they propagate into our eastern zones, then
gradually decrease and dissipate through sunset as daytime
heating wanes. Conditions will remain very warm and humid
overnight, with lows in the middle and upper 70s.

Showers and tstms will increase in coverage Tuesday and Wednesday
as the main influence of the ridge stays northwest of the area,
while subtle disturbances move west acrs the Gulf of Mexico.
Convection should remain sctd and diurnal in nature, developing
by early aftn and continuing until around sunset. While a few
storms could produce brief heavy rainfall, amounts are not
expected to be excessive and, for the most part, should stay under
an inch.

High temps the next couple of days will be hot, outside of any
cooling showers. Temperatures will be near normal (lower 90s) acrs
the southern half of the area, while further inland, temps could
top out a few degrees warmer. With temperatures a smidge lower,
apparent temperatures are not expected to be quite as hot, and
heat index values should stay below advisory criteria, although a
few locations in Avoyelles Parish could briefly flirt with heat
index values around 108 Tuesday aftn.


LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...

Early on the region will be on the southern periphery of ridge
centered over the midwest. Guidance also continues to indicate high
moisture content across the area as well. In addition some weak
waves of energy from the east will cause an enhancement of the
diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity.  Little more ridging
builds back into the lat weekend into early next week along with a
drier airmass with rain chances lowering back to more normal
summertime chances.

Temperatures still to remain warm through the period.


A generally onshore flow should prevail through the week. Winds
are expected to remain light and seas low through the period.
Shower and tstm chcs are expected to increase by midweek, with
sctd showers and tstms possible through the end of the week.



AEX  77  95  76  95 /  20  70  30  50
LCH  78  93  77  93 /  30  60  30  40
LFT  78  93  76  94 /  30  60  20  50
BPT  76  93  76  94 /  20  50  10  40



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