Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 241625

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Regional 88Ds show quite a bit of precip with embedded scattered
storms off to our west in association with the initial disturbance
ejecting out ahead of the primary shortwave/cutoff low moving
across wrn TX. Latest short-range guidance indicates a few showers
could move into mainly our TX zones later this afternoon. In
addition, with weaker capping noted on this morning`s 12z KSHV
sounding, suppose we could see a few showers pop up over the nrn
portions of the forecast area. Meanwhile very weak returns are
noted over the nwrn Gulf and headed toward swrn/s-cntl
yesterday, perhaps a brief very light shower could develop as
this activity continues moving newd, but have left precip mention
out of the grids/zones for now. Elsewhere, changes to the
grids/zones were minimal.

Update out shortly.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 608 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/

12Z Taf issuance

Predominate MVFR & intermittent IFR ceilings through 15z for
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA. After 15z, expect SE winds 10-14 kts with gusts
around 20 kts through the afternoon, with predominately VFR
expected. The robust upper level trough and surface low over the
ArkLaTex will bring deteriorating conditions after 00z with
lowering ceilings, VCTS, and the eventual passage of a line/area
of +TSRA between 06-12z THU.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 452 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery depicting widespread cloudiness
across the region early this morning. Surface obs showing
temperatures running generally in the mid 60s to upper 60s along
and south of the interstate 10 corridor, and the lower 60s across
central Louisiana into interior southeast Texas. Despite cloud
cover remaining through the day, will see temperatures climb to
seasonal norms in the upper 70s. Rains incoming tonight.

No major changes to the forecast. A fairly robust storm system now
over old Mexico will track northeast through Texas overnight and
into Arkansas Thursday. Deep layered lift and associated enhanced
moisture will overspread the area with the approaching feature.
PWATs are progged to ramp up to near 2 inches suggesting a heavy
rainfall potential as showers and thunderstorms advance into the
region. WPC currently has the forecast area in a slight risk for
flash flooding. Will hold off on any watch at this time due to the
progressive nature of system. Severe threat will also exist with
SPC carrying a slight risk for mainly hail and damaging straight
line winds, but cannot rule out an isolated tornado.

Rains taper off west to east moving through Thursday, with dry
high pressure then becoming established into the new week.

MARINE...Low pressure advancing northeast across Texas will
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the northwest Gulf
beginning late tonight and continuing into Thursday. Ongoing
southerlies will trend west then offshore as the surface low moves
across Arkansas late Thursday sending an accompanying cold front
across the region with rains then diminishing.


AEX  79  65  78  60 /  20  90  60  30
LCH  78  67  79  63 /  10  90  60  20
LFT  79  67  79  63 /  10  80  80  20
BPT  77  66  80  63 /  10  90  50  10



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