Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 181019
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
519 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Latest upper air analysis/water vapor satellite imagery showed a
shortwave trof over coastal SE TX, with an upstream WRN CONUS
trof axis stretching from the Intermountain West to the Desert
SW. At the SFC, a ridge of high pressure extended from the Mid MS
River Valley into Central TX.

Not much has changed in model guidance this forecast cycle, and
thus, little overall changes were made to the forecast this
morning. Considerable mid and high level cloud cover blankets the
area this morning in association with the shortwave trof, with
some light returns and even an isolated shower or two showing up
on radar. KLCH 00Z RAOB depicted a couple of very dry layers
below 7K FT, so it is unlikely that the light radar returns are
netting any PCPN at the SFC. The shortwave trof is progged to
continue translating quickly EWD through the day, with clouds
eroding from W to E such that a clear sky is expected areawide by
this evening. Afternoon temperatures will be much warmer than
yesterday, though are still expected to stay below seasonal
normals.

Potential tropical cyclone 16, consisting of a generally broad
low over the west central Gulf with vigorous convection displaced
off to the E/NE, is progged to move quickly off to the NE and
become increasingly entangled with the aforementioned shortwave
trof. While some intensification/increase in organization is
expected later today as the system nears the north central and
northeast Gulf coast, impacts to our area will be minimal, and
mostly relegated to elevated winds and seas over the Gulf waters
east of Intracoastal City.

Dry and cool weather is expected tonight in the wake of the
departing shortwave trof, with a warming trend set to ensue on SAT
as deep layer W/SW flow takes hold with the passage of the low
amplitude WRN CONUS trof axis. Continued warming into SUN with low
end rain chances returning ahead of a more robust upper trof
digging into the Central CONUS, with this feature progged to send
a frontal boundary through the area on MON. Guidance converging on
frontal passage through the day on MON, with bulk of rains having
ended by MON evening. Widespread showers and thunderstorms to
precede and accompany the boundary, with at least a low end severe
risk given progged shear/buoyancy across parts of southwest and
east and south central LA MON afternoon. Not much in the way of
cooler air behind the front, but enough to knock temperatures back
below seasonal normals.

Dry weather with below normal temperatures will prevail TUE and
WED, with uncertainty lingering WED owing to how quickly MSTR can
return. Continued with low end chance PoPs, increasing to mid/high
chance THU night into FRI with good global model agreement on
another FROPA during this time period.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A moderate offshore flow will persist into tonight as potential
tropical cyclone sixteen tracks northeast across the central Gulf
of Mexico. An onshore flow will resume late Saturday into Sunday,
becoming modest Sunday night into Monday ahead of an approaching
cold front forecast to push through the area Monday afternoon and
evening. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected with the frontal passage, with a brisk offshore flow
developing in its wake.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  53  83  63 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  76  58  84  69 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  77  59  84  66 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  77  61  84  71 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ455-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ472.

&&

$$


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