Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 191751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1251 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

19/18Z TAF Issuance.


Sctd convection developing acrs southern parts of the area,
currently occurring near or at ARA/LFT/BPT, with the potential for
MVFR cigs and IFR/LIFR vsbys at these sites over the next hour or
so. Sctd SHRA/TSRA will continue to develop through the aftn along
outflow boundary interactions so retained TEMPO groups at southern
TAF sites, with VC at AEX. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
to prevail outside of any showers or storms with activity
dissipating around sunset. Winds are expected to be light and
southerly or variable at times. A few showers will again be
possible at southern terminals Tuesday morning as marine
convection begins to spread inland.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1050 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/

12z KLCH sounding came in very moist with a precipitable water
around 2.1 inches (131 percent of normal) and a sfc-h5 RH near
75%...KLIX sounding was even wetter. Given the area remains under
a general weakness aloft behind a passing shortwave, good
insolation has already started with temps nearing 90F (regional
convective temps are in the mid/upper 80s) and sea breeze
boundary/numerous outflow development, scattered/widespread
showers/storms look like a good bet through the remainder of the
day. Local 88Ds already show good coverage across the srn 1/2 of
the forecast area, especially over lower Acadiana, so inherited
POPs look fine for now.

Elsewhere, grids are trending nicely per sfc obs/satellite
imagery, so no morning update is planned at this time...but will
have to continue to keep an eye on heat indices as some locations
look to run close to criteria before thicker cloud cover/precip
moves in.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/

12Z Taf issuance.

Terminals VFR this morning, with VCSH for BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA this
morning. Later this afternoon, scattered to at times numerous
thunderstorms expected. Thus, continued the inherited VCTS at all
sites, and with 50-70% chances expected for BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA
terminals, tempo group for TSRA & MVFR Visibility/Ceilings from
18-22z during the times of maximum heating and instability. Like
yesterday, activity expected to diminish greatly by sunset.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/

DISCUSSION...Radar depicting isolated showers over the near
coastal waters, with a few returns inland as far north as I-10.
Observations showing another warm and muggy morning ongoing with
temperatures in the mid 70s north of I-10, around 80 along the
interstate and further south.

Little change to the previous forecast and little change in the
weather throughout the week. Low level southerlies will remain
over the region advecting Gulf moisture northward. A mid-level
shortwave will advance southeast across the forecast area today
briefly breaking down the eastern periphery of high pressure aloft
currently centered over Texas. With trof coming through, expecting
a rather active day for convection as PWATs rise, convective
temperatures continue to be easily met and sea breeze becomes
once again active. Upper ridge becomes reestablished over the
region Tuesday and Wednesday but not sufficiently to squash
continued shower and thunderstorm development. Ridge breaks down
for the later of the week with the approach of a northern stream
trof resulting generally in a continuation of rain chances above
the norm.

MARINE...A ridge of high pressure extending west across the
Northern Gulf will maintain a light to occasional moderate
onshore flow. A daily chance for showers and a few thunderstorms
will continue.



AEX  93  74  92  74 /  50  30  40  10
LCH  91  77  90  77 /  60  30  50  20
LFT  90  75  89  75 /  70  30  60  20
BPT  91  78  91  77 /  40  20  50  20




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