Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 202025
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
325 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...

High pressure has built in to the region allowing for a mild and
dry weekend for the area. Mild days and relatively cool nights
will continue through the remainder of the weekend with a gradual
warming trend through the beginning of the work week. Surface
high pressure will continue to move overhead and then east of the
area by the first of the week allowing for a light return flow to
return to the region. This will bring temperatures back to near
and slightly above normal through mid week.

.LONG TERM...

A classic mid spring four corners cut off closed low will
eventually kick eastward by Wednesday giving the area our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and possibly lingering
into Friday. The Euro shows a more defined closed low but is also
more progressive bringing an end to the rain by Friday. The GFS
is weaker...slower and shows more of an open wave trough with
precip lingering through at least Friday. Given the previous
systems and longterm pattern that has been in place throughout
most of April...the Euro is the most likely scenerio. The Euro has
also showed a well defined upper level low for the past several
runs. However...made very little changes to the extended giving
the uncertainity.


&&

.AVIATION...Clear skies will result in prevailing VFR conditions
throughout the entire forecast period.  Winds will shift from the
northwest to a more southerly direction by tomorrow. 32

.MARINE...Gradient flow over the eastern waters will continue to
weaken through the evening as high pressure builds in from the west.
This ridge of high pressure will become centered over the Southeast
and eastern Gulf by tomorrow.  Prevailing southeast winds of 10 to
15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected over the open Gulf
waters tomorrow through Wednesday night.  By Thursday, a
strengthening low pressure system will increase the pressure
gradient over the coastal waters.  Southerly winds should increase
to 15 to 20 knots and seas of 3 to 5 feet are forecast. 32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: River flood warnings

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue =  Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
        visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory
         issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red =   Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or excessive
        rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&


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