Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 220204
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1004 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will pass overhead tonight. High
pressure will build into the region early this week and continue
through mid week. A cold front will move through by late in the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 10 pm Sunday...Returns widespread on the radar, but
surface obs show much of it not reaching the ground. Therefore
will leave current PoPs as is. No other changes made.

Prev disc...A well defined upper low observed over the eastern
US is forecast to become negatively tilted while rotating slowly
east across NC tonight. As it does, weak low pressure will
track northeast off of the coast overnight. Increasing DPVA
associated with the upper low and a general moistening of the
500-1000 MB level will lead to the development of scattered
showers late today and tonight, most widespread this evening
across northeast sections in region of better forcing and deeper
moisture. The showers will taper off late tonight as the low
moves off of the Del MarVa. Skies will be clearing from west to
east beginning late this evening as drier air moves in in
developing northwest flow. Lows will remain on the chilly side
in the mid to upper 40s inland and low to mid 50s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...Nice weather on tap to start the workweek
as high pressure builds in from the west. Skies will be mostly
sunny with diminishing winds. Temperatures will be pleasant with
highs inland in the lower to middle 70s and mid to upper 60s
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...Dry weather will a warming trend will
characterize the forecast through at least Thursday. A cold
front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and
Friday night, followed by drier and slightly cooler weather for
next weekend.

Monday night through Thursday...Upper level ridging coupled
with a surface high to our south will dominate the weather for
the early through middle portion of the upcoming week. This will
lead to several pleasant days with mostly clear skies with a
warming trend. After highs on Monday in the 70s, highs get into
the lower 80s inland Tuesday and peak in the mid 80s inland
Wednesday, before dropping just a bit Thursday with some
increase in clouds assoc with a weak backdoor cold front
dropping into the nrn tier. Some mdls are showing spotty shra
assoc with the backdoor front but given limited moisture and
forcing will keep dry for now.

Friday and Friday Night...A mid-level trough with an
accompanying surface cold front will lead to a good chance of
showers and a few thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. High
temperatures Friday in the mid to upper 70s with lows Fri night
upr 50s to low 60s.

Saturday thru Sunday...Most models show drying behind cold
front for Saturday. ECMWF hints at a low cutting off to our
south Sunday which could bring precipitation back to the area
however given uncertainty will just have silent 20 pop for
mainly cstl areas for now. Highs next weekend seasonal with 70s
inland to 65 to 70 OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through Mon/...
As of 7 pm Sun...High confidence in VFR conditions through the
TAF period. Scattered light showers this evening mainly across
the northern TAF sites will taper off by midnight. Ceilings will
be VFR this evening with skies become clear by midnight. High
pressure builds in late tonight and Monday with dry weather and
light winds.

Long Term /Monday night through Fri/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...High confidence in mainly VFR conditions
through Thu. Given light winds cant rule out some spotty early
morn fog. Weak backdoor front will sag into the region later
Wed night and Thu but not looking for much if any precip. Bouts
of sub VFR expected Fri with sct shra/tsra assoc with cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Mon/...
As of 10 pm Sunday...No changes to current zones. Weak low
pressure will track northeast off the coast tonight. S/SW winds
this evening 10-15 kt will become NW 10-15 kt overnight as the
low begins to move off the mid Atlantic. Could see a brief mini
surge to 15-20 kt late this evening into early Mon. NW winds
will diminish to 5-10 kt and back to the SW Mon afternoon. Main
concern is residual swell which was persisting off the coast.
The swell has been diminishing faster than forecast with the
only SCA remaining over the central waters which will expire
around 8 AM Mon. Seas for the most part will 3-5 ft through Mon
morning subsiding to 2-4 ft by Mon evening as high pressure
builds over the waters.

Long Term /Monday night through Fri/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...Relatively benign marine conditions
expected for much of the upcoming week. High pres will pass to
the S Tue and move offshore Wed with light WSW winds Tue become
SW 10 to 20 kts Wed. Weak backdoor cold front will sag into the
region Wed night and Thu with winds becoming light. WSW winds
mainly 10 to 15 kts Fri ahead of next cold front.

Seas wl be mainly 2 to 4 feet thru the period, however some 5
foot seas expected later Wed and Wed evening outer central and
srn wtrs as SW winds peak.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Monday through Monday
     evening for NCZ203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...HSA/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RF/CTC
AVIATION...HSA/RF/JME
MARINE...HSA/RF/JME



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