Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 191651
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1251 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Nester will cross the area
tonight through Sunday as a strong low pressure system. High
pressure then builds over the area Sunday night and Monday. A
cold front will push through the area late Tuesday night,
ushering in a cooler and drier airmass through the end of the
workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1245 PM Saturday...No changes with this update as cirrus
shield is quickly advancing into our CWA with the leading edge
of the rain now nearing the NC/SC border. Initially, a very dry
airmass in place this morning with the precipitable water off
the 12Z MHX sounding at 0.3 inches. We will quickly transition
to a much wetter atmosphere by late afternoon with precipitable
water surging to over 2 inches as deep moisture moves north from
the Florida Panhandle area. Tropical Storm Nestor has started to
undergo extratropical transition as it races northeast this
afternoon and tonight, but this will have little effect on the
impacts for our area, including heavy rainfall, gusty winds,
elevated water levels and a threat for isolated tornadoes later
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sat...The remnants of TC Nestor arrive in the form
of a strong low pressure system late tonight into Sunday. Though
the storm will lose its tropical designation by the time it
reaches our area, the storm will remain strong as it is
undergoing extratropical transition, and the impacts are not
dependent on whether or not the system has a name.

Very efficient moisture transport on the back of a 40-50 kt LLJ
will occur under a fairly broad area of upper divergence,
resulting in periods of heavy rainfall. Widespread 1-3 inches
and locally higher amounts expected. While antecedent conditions
are fairly dry across eastern NC, PWATs well over 2 inches will
bring very high rain rates at times. Any flash flooding would
be confined to urban areas where stronger storms train early
Sunday morning.

The afore mentioned LLJ will mix to the surface efficiently
across marine areas, and a Wind Advisory has been issued for the
areas most exposed to winds from the south off the water,
including all beaches and Mainland Dare and Hyde. The strongest
winds are expected through the morning hours Sunday, with
moistening soils bringing the potential for downed trees mainly
along the coast.

Additionally, the LLJ will bring elevated 0-1 km helicity
values and a few isolated tornados are possible mainly within
the zone of greatest moisture convergence/instability just ahead
of the cold front that will extend south of the low center.
This feature will cross the area from around 6Z to 14Z, with
high-res guidance indicating that a few low-topped supercells
could move onshore withing this zone of most favorable
conditions.

The low will pull away from the area through the day Sunday,
with dry air filling in quickly, bringing an abrupt end to the
rainfall from west to east. However, gusty winds will continue
as high pressure begins to build inland by late afternoon,
keeping the gradient tight locally.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Sat...A strong cold front is forecast to slide across
the region in the middle of the week, followed by high pressure
building in and bringing a drier and cooler airmass. Another front
approaches the Carolinas to close the workweek.

Sunday night into Monday...A drier and cooler airmass will build in
on the backside of the exiting low as ridging builds aloft. Some
showers may linger along the Outer Banks Sunday night, while the
rest of the forecast area is dry. Expect a mix of sun and clouds
Monday, with highs in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday through Thursday...The next chance for rain comes on Tuesday
as a strong cold front moves eastward ahead of a significant upper
level trough over the central CONUS. There remains some timing
differences as the GFS is slightly faster as the trough is not
as amplified compared to the Euro model. Regardless of the
timing issues, confidence remains high with precip chances
increasing Tuesday. Models are suggesting a high shear/low CAPE
set-up ahead of the approaching cold front. Therefore, adding
the mention of thunder in the forecast for Tuesday. In general,
the cold front is expected to push through late Tuesday into
Wednesday. After the frontal passage, strong CAA will help knock
highs back down to around seasonal levels with surface high
pressure building from the west. Expect temperatures to be in
the mid to upper 70s ahead of the cold front, then dropping down
into the lower 70s Wednesday through Thursday.

Another significant trough drops down from the Northern Plains
into the central CONUS with an attendant cold front  forecast
to approach the area at the end of the week. Can`t rule out a
few coastal showers along a developing coastal trough Friday and
Saturday. Will continue with a low end chance PoPs.
Temperatures will be at or slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Sunday/...
As of 1245 PM Saturday...Thickening cirrus continues to stream
into the region from the SW this afternoon, but VFR conditions
should prevail until at least sunset at the TAF sites as light
rain moves in from the SW. Ceiling restrictions will begin
late evening or overnight as steady rainfall overspreads the
area. Stronger rain and gusty conditions arrive late tonight,
bringing widespread IFR or LIFR conditions. Additionally, a
strong LLJ will bring LLWS into the forecast for the early
morning hours Sunday. Ceiling restrictions could linger through
much of the day Sunday. Some LLWS will be possible early Sunday
morning through midday Sunday.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Sat...VFR conditions will return briefly on Monday,
before deteriorating again ahead of an approaching cold front with
sub-VFR conditions as rain chances increases. High pressure will
build afterward with VFR conditions returning.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 1250 PM Saturday...Tweaked wind directions based on
current observations, showing more NE currently over the
northern waters and SE over the southern tier. No other changes
to the marine forecast for this update. Post Tropical Cyclone
Nestor will quickly race northeast from Florida this afternoon
and evening. The action really gets going tonight with a fairly
benign day today. Very dangerous marine conditions, strong
winds and large seas will prevail beginning early Sunday
morning and continuing through midday. Gale Warnings are already
in effect with SCAs earlier issued for the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers.

While conditions will deteriorate quickly with the fast moving
low, they will be more gradual to improve as high pressure
building inland keeps the gradient tight as the low departs
later Sunday. SCAs will replace the Gales as breezy conditions
and elevated seas continue.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Sat... As the low lifts away, a northerly surge of
20- 25 knots across all the waters through Monday morning, then
gradually diminish below 20 knots by Monday afternoon. Seas
will remain at/above 6 ft through Monday night. Winds will
become southernly 10-15 knots Tuesday and increase to 15-20
knots Tuesday afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front.
After the frontal passage, winds will become NW 10-15 knots.
Seas will generally be 3- 5 ft Monday night through Tuesday, and
gradually subside Wednesday to 2-4 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 AM Sat...A fast moving but powerful low pressure system
will cross the area tonight though Sunday. At least minor
inundation of 1-2 ft above ground in very low-lying areas is
possible across much of coastal North Carolina. Oceanside
flooding is expected as the low lifts towards ENC tonight into
Sunday morning and then soundside Sunday night as winds shift
northerly behind the low. Locations in which dune structures
were weakened during Hurricane Dorian or last week`s Nor`easter
will be especially vulnerable to additional flooding.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ047-081.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday for
     NCZ195-199.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Sunday for
     NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to noon EDT Sunday for AMZ136-
     137.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ135.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Warning from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ156-158.
     Gale Warning from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM/CB
MARINE...CTC/BM/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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