Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 201823
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
123 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move into the area today and linger through
Thursday. The front will shift back south Thursday night, then
back to the north as a warm front this weekend, resulting in a
continued unsettled weather pattern. High pressure will build in
from the northwest early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 115 PM Wed...No significant changes needed to previous
forecast for update. Warm front seems to be located from about
Oregon Inlet down through Havelock and New River...with Hatteras
around 60 degrees and still in the mid 40s inland. Light rain
will continue to overspread the area today. High pressure
influencing the area from the north will continue to weaken as
in-situ damming sets up. A weak shortwave moves up the coast
while a coastal trough/warm front developing offshore pushes
onshore. Widespread light to moderate rain expected today with
good isentropic lift and deep moisture in place. Will continue
categorical to likely pops across the region with best cvrg
later this morn into the aftn. Temp forecast will be tricky with
wedge in place across the inland areas. Highs likely only
getting to around 50 deg deep inland with E/NE winds and lower
60s along the central and srn coast with winds becoming SE/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Tue...The warm front becomes less defined tonight
with decrease in deep moisture. Cont prev trend of chc pops
overnight. Despite mainly S to SW sfc flow expect some fog to
cont with saturated low lvls. Very little temp drop overnight
with the warm sector over bulk of the region ...lows mainly upr
40s inland to upper 50s cst and may even rise a bit late.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 2 am Wed...Mostly unsettled weather expected through the
period, as a wavy front will linger across E NC through the
weekend. Dry high pressure finally makes an appearance by late
next weekend through early next week.

Thursday through Friday...Tough forecast this period, as
wavering front will be nearby, and continued broad swrly winds
aloft will mean rain chances each period as rain will be
isentropically lifted. Deep moisture in place along with vort
lobes passing across the area will result in PoPs in the good
chance to likely categories both days and during the overnight
periods.

Area will be in the warm sector Thu, and with low lvl
thicknesses soaring to around 1390M, highs expected to be in the
70s most areas, though cloud cover and areas of rain,
especially north, may keep temps in the 60s here. High temps
Friday appear to drop into the 50s as wavering front looks to
drop back south as a cold front. More unsettled weather in the
form of rain Friday, as 850MB front remains across the area,
leading to some decent isentropic lift continuing.

Saturday...Unsettled weather continues for Saturday, as the
next low pressure area/shortwave will swing through the Ohio
valley and bring lift/moisture through the region once again.
Temps warm into the 60s as warm front will be lifting through.

Sunday...Finally some drying on Sunday as area will be in warm
sector ahead of approaching cold front. Only chc rain showers at
this time, as best lift/moisture will be north and west of the
region. It appears to be a very warm day, as thicknesses soar to
aoa 1390M, suggestive of high temps in the 75-80 degree range
(65-70 beaches).

Monday through Tuesday...Dry high pres arrives on Monday, though
flow will be zonal, so expecting temps to remain above climo,
with 60s for highs generally. Tuesday may see the approach of
the next system in a continued active storm track, and have
introduced chc pops.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through Thursday/...
As of 115 PM Wed...High confidence in widespread IFR and LIFR
conditions to continue through the period, as low clouds remain
locked in below a strong inversion. Rain will taper off tonight
but areas of fog or drizzle will likely continue with low lvls
saturated. Areas of dense fog will be possible. LLWS expected to
develop overnight and continue into Thu morning as SW low level
jet strengthens. Fog and stratus will gradually improve
Thursday, but may remain sub-VFR through 18z.

Long Term /Thursday through Monday/...
As of 2 am Wed...Sub-VFR conditions for most of the week in an
unsettled weather pattern, with good chances of rain each
period. Sunday will finally dry out with a return to VFR
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 115 PM Wed...Latest obs show E/SE winds 15-25 kt with
seas 4-5 ft north of Oregon Inlet and 5-9 ft south. Winds 15 to
25 kt with higher gusts S will grad shift to the SE today as
warm front pushes slowly inland. Gusty S to SE winds this
evening then become SW overnight with speeds mainly 10 to 20
kts...poss a bit higher outer central and srn wtrs. Seas will
build to 6 to 9 ft by evening and cont in that range overnight,
highest south of Oregon Inlet. Cont all current headlines with
SCA for all waters and Pamlico Sound.

Long Term /Thu through Sunday/...
As of 2 am Wed...Poor boating conditions forecast through most
of the period in unsettled weather pattern. SCA continues into
Thu in messy pattern with a front moving in from the northwest.
Flow becomes NE 15-20 kt on Friday as the front moves to the
south and becomes stationary, and high res wave guidance
indicating marginal brief 6 ft seas developing on the outer
ctrl/srn waters. Winds will veer to E and then eventually to S
on Saturday as coastal trof develops. Winds/seas forecast to
remain below SCA on Saturday, though strong cold front moves
through later Sunday, and SW winds expected to strengthen to
20-30 kt by Sun morning and build seas to 6+ ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 945 AM...Minor flooding will be possible at times of high
tide through Thursday due to higher than normal astronomical
tides.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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