Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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903
FXUS63 KMPX 191958
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
258 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Forecast concerns remain temperature trend and timing of the next
system moving in Sunday afternoon.

Sky cleared and light rain exited to the east pretty much on
schedule. Trough was a bit slower so moisture was able to move
across east central MN early. Mild conditions remain with westerly
winds over most of the CWA, with the exception of the far eastern
area where clouds will remain longest this afternoon. With clearing
expected there into the evening and with the light rain received
much of the afternoon, will likely see some fog develop that region
into the overnight. Models not too keen on overall coverage, but the
easternmost portion of west central WI should see some fog develop
as winds diminish further with the ridge moving through.

Sunday and Mondays weather system is moving through Washington/Idaho
region late this afternoon per water vapor imagery. Strong jet
moving into the base of the trough and will lead to deepening of the
system into Sunday. We expect mid/high level clouds to move in
fairly rapidly later tonight over the far west and across the region
Sunday. We should remain dry across the entire CWA through 18z
Sunday and then as the trough/forcing approaches will see some
showers working into the western half of the area through the
afternoon. Sunday afternoon temperatures are expected to warm
through the low/mid 60s most areas once again. Cloud cover will
determine will determine overall warming potential however.

Will mention categorical PoPs into Sunday night as the now closed
low moves into the area. Thunder threat looks minimal so will
continue to hold onto slight chance thunder for now. May see a break
over the southwest into the late evening as the main forcing lifts
northeast, but will hold onto likely PoP through the night. QPF
looks to be around one quarter to one half inch through Sunday
night, with a bit less perhaps over west central WI.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Wet weather continues into the long term period, then looks to
dry out for the end of the upcoming week.

On Monday the nearly vertically stacked system will be moving over
the area. While there is some indication a dry slot could be poking
into southern/central Minnesota at some point during the day, there
would likely still be areas of drizzle around, so will not get too
fancy with POPs at this point. Winds look to be quite brisk on
Monday afternoon, particularly from west into south central
Minnesota. Speeds have come down a tad from previous solutions, but
sustained speeds near 30 mph and gusts to 45 mph still appear
possible. Have also retained a slight chance thunder mention
given progs of MUCAPE values of 100-200 J/KG. For QPF, have gone
with the WPC guidance given it`s in line with ensemble clustering,
and it also captures the potential reduction in amounts over the
south with dry slotting on Monday. This equates to storm total QPF
amounts generally from one half to one inch.

As the low lifts into northwestern Ontario on Tuesday, resultant
cyclonic flow locally will likely spawn showers for areas north of
Interstate 94 and east of Interstate 35, with brisk northwest winds
continuing.

We are not quite out of the woods with precip on Wednesday, as
another weak shortwave passes in the mean trough. Thermal profiles
with this feature indicate the potential for a wintry mix, although
amounts look relatively light at this point.

Thursday into the weekend we look to have overall benign weather,
with temperatures moderating back to near-normal values in the lower
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

VFR at all site with the exception of KEAU. MVFR vsbys with -RA
moving out by 19z with clearing thereafter. Confidence increasing
that we will see some fog at KEAU developing after 06z Sat and
possible becoming IFR by 10z or so. Expect it to be relatively
shallow and should burn off by 13z. Otherwise, mid/high clouds
exiting far eastern areas early, with more mid/high level clouds
moving in overnight into central MN. Surface winds SW to W most
areas with a few gusts around 20kt over western areas this
evening. Then winds becoming light SW-S and eventually SE into
Sunday morning.

KMSP...VFR through period. Increasing mid/high level clouds later
tonight/Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun night...becoming MVFR/IFR/-SHRA late. -TSRA possible. Winds
SE at 15G25 kts
Mon...IFR/-SHRA with -TSRA possible early, then MVFR. Wind NW at
20G30 kts.
Tue...VFR/MVFR ceilings. Wind NW at 25G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE



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