Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 180547
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Confidence is high that we will see a line of thunderstorms work
across southern MN and western WI tonight. These storms are
expected to move into western MN around 9/10pm tonight. When
they get to the state, the combination of its parent mid level
wave taking on a negative tilt and a strong push of dry air from
the west will help accelerate these storms across the area, with
30-40 kt storm motions likely. Though we do see favorable severe
parameters, with muCAPE in excess of 2k j/kg in southern MN and
effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts, the time of day will be a
limiting factor in the severe threat. Current expectations is that
this will be a primarily "SPS event", with plenty of wind gusts
of 40-50mph and some hail up to penny size. However, with things
like cell mergers, temporary bowing segments, and other mesoscale
factors, we`ll likely see a few storms briefly pulse up into
severe levels, but a widespread significant severe weather event
is not expected and the Day 1 SPC convective outlook of a slight
risk south of I-94 in MN adequately covers our severe potential
tonight.

Behind this line of storms, we`ll actually see some cold
advection, which means will likely have a band of stratocu in
its wake that will clear out from west to east Sunday morning,
leaving behind a beautiful Sunday afternoon with temperatures in
the 70s and low humidity. The dry air we see coming in on Sunday
will have two impacts for Sunday night. With high pressure moving
overhead, we`ll see light winds and clear skies, so excellent
radiational cooling conditions will allow temperatures to drop
into the 50s Monday morning, with some pockets getting into the
upper 40s as well. That dry air coming in on Sunday also looks to
limit the fog potential Monday morning, with just some patchy fog
expected in western WI near bodies of water and in river valleys,
so nothing widespread.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

High pressure resides over the region Monday, with dry conditions
and warmer temperatures expected as southerly flow picks up on
the backside of the high. A cold front drops south through the
Upper Midwest overnight Monday night into Tuesday, but the chances
widespread precipitation along the front look to be decreasing as
the forcing from the upper-level low remains well to our north,
and models have trended much weaker with a shortwave over southern
Minnesota/Iowa. Some isolated to scattered activity along the
front still looks possible but precipitation amounts should be
light, and I would not be surprised to see most of the CWA remain
dry.

Cool Canadian high pressure moves in behind this front, with dry
conditions and below-normal temperatures expected Wednesday and
Thursday. Warmer temperatures are expected Friday into saturday as
the high settles over the eastern US and southerly flow picks up
on the back side. The GFS and ECMWF have both trended warmer and
more humid Saturday with highs in the upper 80s and the GEFS/EPS
ensemble means show this potential as well. However, they are both
the two warmest outliers out of the synoptic models so will stay
close to the blended guidance until this tend becomes more
established. Precipitation chances increase as well as the jet
stream oscillates over the Upper Midwest, but confidence in timing
of any jetstreak/shortwaves remains low so will keep PoPs low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Large area of convection, including a highly visible mesolow on
KMPX radar imagery, continues to spread eastward over southern MN
on into western WI. Conditions within the convection will reach
MVFR and potentially IFR, mainly due to visibility. Post-
convection, ceilings are dropping down into IFR levels but there
is some uncertainty if IFR ceilings will be reached in eastern MN
and western WI so have gone as low as MVFR at this time and can
amend if necessary. Conditions then steadily improve mainly after
daybreak Sunday morning, reaching VFR with clearing skies. Winds
will swing around to NW post-convection, but could reach speeds of
30-40kt during convection.

KMSP...Still looking for best timing to be 06z-10z (so an
overnight event with low traffic numbers). IFR conditions likely
during overnight convection, mainly due to visibility. Behind the
convection, MVFR ceilings, including under 1700ft, likely during
the Sunday morning push then gradual improvement thru the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Slight chc -TSRA/MVFR late. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Slight chc -TSRA/MVFR early. Wind N 10-15 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...JPC


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