Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KOKX 230543
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
143 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front continues moving through the region early this
morning. High pressure then builds to the north through this
weekend, and across the Canadian maritimes early next week. Low
pressure may pass south and east of the local area during the
middle of next week, followed by a slow moving cold front late
in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Complex of severe thunderstorms that tracked across NE NJ, NYC,
and Long Island associated with an MCV/vort max has moved
offshore. A cold front is also slowly working its way through
the region and should be offshore early Friday morning. However,
showers and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through
the rest of the night especially across the southern portion of
the region. The front will be slow to move offshore and there is
support aloft with the region in the right entrance of a 100-120
jet streak across northern New England. Upper level height falls
will also continue through the night as an upper trough axis
moves over the northeast.

The threat of severe weather has ended, but locally heavy
downpours are possible in any showers and isolated storms.

Temperatures will slowly fall into the early morning hours as
cooler air begins to work southward. Some drier low level air
will also begin advecting south as the front moves offshore.
Lows will be in the 60s for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Morning showers are possible with an approaching upper level
jet combining with lingering moisture. Although the right
entrance region of this jet will be approaching us through the
day, the drying and stable airmass building in behind the cold
front will counteract this, so dry in the afternoon. Mid and
upper level clouds probably linger however, and chances of a
mostly clear sky improve towards the end of the day. Dewpoints
will be in the 50s so it will feel much less humid than it has
been, and high temperatures end up a few degrees below normal.

Further clearing of the sky occurs Friday night with high
pressure building in. Lows dropping into the 50s for the
northern suburbs and Pine Barrens Region.

There is a moderate rip current risk Friday along the ocean
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Latest NWP model suite showing good agreement across North
America into early next week. By Tue, the global models deviate
significantly off the east coast along with timing and amplitude
differences with a trough/cutoff over south central Canada and
into the Plains.

A dry, cooler and less humid airmass prevails over the weekend
with highs generally in the 70s, which is below normal for this
time of year. As deep layered ridging builds from the west, a
weak cutoff low develops over the Northeast. Not expecting any
showers as a result of this with the lack of a cold pool aloft.
However, as the associated sfc high builds to the north across
SE Canada and increasing easterly flow will develop. This
pattern is indicative of stratus development and possibly some
light rain or drizzle Sun/Sun night. This feature lifts north
and east on Mon, as another low off the Carolina approaches.
The energy associated with this low is currently in the Bahamas
and needs to be watched over the next several days for tropical
development. Although both the GFS and EC track it well south
and east of the local area mid next week, while the CMC shears
it apart off the coast of Florida.

Meanwhile, an upper level trough over the Plains gradually
traverses east through Thu but as mentioned above there are
timing and amplitude differences with this so the timing of the
associated frontal system is uncertain. Temps will increase back
to normal levels Wed and Thu with higher humidity levels as well
due to a southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will move through the region this morning. High
pressure builds to the north.

Mainly VFR, with scattered showers continuing through 11-12Z,
especially coastal terminals. A few MVFR ceilings will be
possible, especially through 08-10Z.

Mid and high clouds are expected during the daytime.

Variable winds will become northerly 10 kt or less. North winds
may back to the W/NW for a short time in the afternoon, but then
shift back to the N/NE by evening around 9-12 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Late tonight-Saturday night...VFR.
.Sunday...VFR, except MVFR possible in a slight chance of light
rain in the afternoon. Along the coast, NE flow 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt possible.
.Monday-Tuesday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR possible with a
chance of light rain Monday night and Tuesday. Along the coast,
NE flow 10-15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Localized gusts to 25 kt are possible on the ocean with seas
near 5 ft due to outflow from thunderstorms moving across. Have
not issued an SCA as the winds should diminish and seas should
subside below 5 ft through the night.

An offshore flow of around 10 kt or less then maintains sub-
advisory conditions on all waters Friday and Friday night.

SCA conditions are expected to develop on the ocean Sun with
wind gusts possibly continuing into Mon due to a strengthening
easterly flow. Seas will likely remain elevated beyond Mon and
possibly continue through Thu with a potential area of low pres
off the Carolina coast track S and E of the waters during the
middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy showers are still possible through the early
morning hours. Minor flooding is the main impact in any heavier
downpour. No hydrologic impacts are then expected Friday into
next week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC/DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24
EQUIPMENT...


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.