Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 131701

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1101 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Currently, weak flow aloft and no disturbances of note analyzed in
water vapor imagery and upper air analysis this morning. TPW is
running 50-75% of normal over Colorado, and skies are clear.
Temperatures are in the 20s to 30s across the plains and high

Today and tonight, dry and tranquil weather will continue across the
forecast area as shortwave ridging develops over the region and TPW
remains well below normal. Slightly stronger mid to upper level
winds will develop over southern Colorado around the ridge crest. As
a result, winds gusting close to 25 mph will mix to the surface this
afternoon, primarily over the higher elevations. Surface RH values
will remain very low across the forecast area, but a lack of
widespread stronger winds will limit the fire weather threat.
Therefore, only spotty and brief critical fire weather conditions
are expected this afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain,
including the Decker Fire. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than
yesterday`s, with highs in the low to mid 70s across the plains,
upper 60s in Colorado Springs, and 60s across the high valleys. Lows
this evening will be in the 30s across the plains and Colorado
Springs, and 20s in the high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Sensible weather concerns during this period are Tuesday with a dry
frontal passage, late Thursday with a weak pacific system and Sunday
with a stronger and colder system.

Monday should be unseasonably warm and dry. It will be breezy in the
mountains. localized marginal critical fire weather concerns will be
possible along the just to the east of the Divide.

Tuesday a dry frontal passage is expected. This will knock off 10F
or so off the high temps across the plains, with temps near
seasonable values. Temps in the mtns will see little change. It will
be rather breezy in the morning on the plains with winds becoming
more upslope late.

Wednesday temperatures will return to above seasonable once again,
with temps on the plains running a good 5-8F above normal. It will
be dry regionwide.

Thursday a Pacific system will move across the region late in the
day. In advance of this system it will be very warm all areas with
temps near 70F in the valleys and into the mid 80s plains (This day
should be the warmest day of the week). Some light precip will be
possible over the higher terrain, especially along the divide.
Marginal critical fire weather conditions will be likely this day
over a good part of the region.

Friday, cooler weather will once again return to the area, with
temps about 5F above normal over the plains.

Saturday should be similar to Fridays weather over the plains,
although a rather stout trough will be heading towards the region and
the potential for substantial snows along the central mtns will be
developing. Much cooler weather will be advecting into the state
late in the day across the NW sections.

Sunday has the potential to be inclement as a trough amplifies over
the state, with much cooler weather moving in. Max temps will crash
into the 40s and 50s mtns, and 60s plains, and I would not be too
surprised if these temps lower considerably in later forecast runs.
This day will likely see the most widespread precip over the fcst
area, especially in the mtns.

Overall, at this time, if making plans for next weekend, Saturday
is looking like the nicer day. /Hodanish


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019

VFR conditions in combination with light diurnal winds are
expected to continue over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites
during the next 24 hours.





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