Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 151748

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1048 AM MST Fri Feb 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM MST Fri Feb 15 2019

An upper disturbance will move out of the area early this morning,
with precip chances quickly decreasing, and mostly ending before
noon.  As westerly winds kick in today, temps today along the I-25
corridor will be above average.  Across the far southeast plains the
temps will be cooler as light easterly winds are expected.  The high
valleys will see westerly winds today and temps should mainly be
around average.

There will be just a brief break in the precip chances, as a new
weather system moves into UT and western CO late tonight.  Toward
evening, some isold showers may move into the CONTDVD, and then as
the upper trof moves closer, the chances for precip will increase
along the CONTDVD with high chances for snow by lat night, with some
light accumulation by Sat morning. Precip is also expected to spread
acrs the high valleys and over the eastern mtn toward Sat morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 422 AM MST Fri Feb 15 2019

...Active Pattern Continues...

Saturday-Saturday night...Another fast moving short wave is progged
to translate across the Rockies late Friday night and Saturday.
Latest models in good agreement that this system will bring a quick
shot of snow and blowing snow to areas along and west of the
Continental Divide Saturday morning, before snow tappers off through
the afternoon, as the system quickly translates into the High
Plains. Quick movement of the system will limit snow across the
Divide, with generally 3 to 6 inches expected across the higher
peaks through late Saturday afternoon. However, with gusty westerly
winds of 25 to 45 mph expected, travel across the ContDvd Saturday
could be hazardous, and may need some impact based advisories across
the Eastern San Juan and La Garita Mts, as well as the Sawatch and
Mosquito Ranges. Further east, although can`t rule out some light
snow accumulations across the Eastern Mts along with a few showers
across the high valleys and plains, the main affect of the passing
system will be gusty west to northwest winds of 25 to 45 mph behind
the system`s associated bora front. This will lead to elevated fire
danger on Saturday, especially across the I-25 Corridor with
expected subsidence and drying through the afternoon.

Sunday-Tuesday...Latest models continue to be in good agreement of a
broad upper trough carving out across the Great Basin on Sunday,
which continues to dig south into the Desert Southwest on Monday
before lifting out across the Rockies on Tuesday. The digging trough
will allow for cold Canadian High Pressure to build south across the
High Plains on Sunday, which backs into Eastern Colorado later
Sunday and persists through Tuesday. This all sets up for a cool and
unsettled couple of days, with periods of light snow expected
areawide, especially Sunday night and Monday, and again Monday night
and Tuesday, with moist southwest flow overrunning the cold air at
the surface across the region. Currently looking like there will be
advisory criteria snowfall for areas over and near the higher
terrain in the Sunday night and Monday timeframe, though with light
upslope flow, cold air and expected good dendritic growth, can`t
rule out some fluffy warning criteria amounts. More, generally light
snow, can be expected areawide later Monday night and Tuesday.
Temperatures will be much cooler early next week, with highs mainly
in the teens and 20s both Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday-Friday...Drier weather with a slightly warmer temperatures
expected on Wedensday behind the passing system, with increasing
changes of snow once again Thursday and Friday, mainly across the
ContDvd, as another system carves out across the Great Basin.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1047 AM MST Fri Feb 15 2019

KALS is expected to have VFR conditions for the remainder of today
and into the evening, with breezy southwest winds. There is a
possibility of some low clouds late tonight into Sunday morning.
Snow showers are also possible during the morning hours.

KCOS is expected to have VFR conditions through the entire forecast
period. Breezy west to southwest winds are expected throughout the
afternoon, becoming more southerly this evening.

KPUB is expected to have VFR conditions for most of the forecast
period with breezy westerly winds through the afternoon. Winds are
expected become easterly overnight allowing for the possibility of
fog to development in the early morning hours. MVFR or IFR
conditions are possible if fog does develop.




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