Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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390
FXUS65 KPUB 190515
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1115 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Currently...

GOES water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows a ridge
building over the southwest US as a north to south oriented jet
streak shifts east into the US plains, its exit region over eastern
Colorado. Large scale lift in the exit region along with favorable
atmospheric moisture has led to the development of isolated rain
showers across the plains this afternoon, now confined to the far
eastern counties. With strong flow overhead, winds this afternoon
have generally gusted into the 30-40 mph range at the surface across
the eastern plains. Temperatures across the plains and high valleys
range from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Gusty winds and isolated rain showers will end early this evening as
the upper jet moves east. The ridge will continue to expand east
across the southwest US tonight and tomorrow, its axis moving over
western Colorado by early tomorrow evening. This will bring dry
weather, clear skies, and light winds to the forecast area.
Temperatures will fall into the mid 30s across the plains this
evening, and mid 20s to mid 30s in the high valleys. Temperatures
will warm into the mid 70s across the plains tomorrow, and near 70
in Colorado Springs and the high valleys. RH values will drop to
near critical levels during the afternoon, but light winds will
stave off critical fire weather conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2019

An upper level ridge over the area will keep the weather dry Fri
night, through at least midday Sat.  High temps on Sat will be well
above average, with readings in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the
plains and in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the San Luis and Upper
Arkansas River Valleys. Sat afternoon and Sat night an upper level
system is forecast to move along the southern CO border.  This
system is expected to bring the potential for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across southern CO.

A front pushes into mainly some of the far eastern areas of
southeast CO early Sun, but is forecast to have a hard time
advancing westward thru the day. At this time, the NAM shows
breezy east to northeast winds behind the front in the afternoon
over El Paso County and the far southeast plains, along with
increased low level moistures and probably some low clouds. There
is also a weak disturbance that comes off an upper low over
southern NV, and track northeastward over CO during the day. At
this time precip doesn`t look widespread Sun, which is a change.
Both the NAM and GFS show the best chances for precip Sun being
over the central mountains, and over Teller and El Paso Counties.
By late afternoon though, precip chances may start increasing over
other portions of the plains. Temps on Sun will be much cooler
over the plains, and just slightly cooler in the high valleys. Sun
evening, precip is expected to become widespread across southeast
CO, as the front pushes all the way through the area and the
moisture deepens. At the same time, precip will still be ongoing
over the Continental Divide, with the best chances remaining over
the central mtns.

By Mon morning, an upper low is forecast to be centered somewhere
over UT, the location varies between the models.  Precip still looks
widespread over the southeast plains and eastern mtns, as well as
over the central mtns.  This will lead to below average temps Mon
over the plains and close to average temps in the high valleys.
Later Mon, the EC moves the upper low center into AZ, while the GFS
moves it to along the central border region between CO and UT. Then
Mon night, the EC moves the low center to the southern AZ border,
while the GFS moves and open wave acrs CO.  Either way, unsettled
and generally wet weather is expected across southern CO, but with
the model differences, accurately forecasting precip amounts will be
difficult.

With the GFS moving the main upper trof out of the area on Tue, but
having some trailing energy over portions of southern CO thru the
day, it is showing precip over the mtns and a little in the high
valleys, but dry over the east after Tue morning. The GFS then has
an upper ridge and mainly dry weather over southern CO on Wed and
Thu. On the other hand, the EC has its upper low moving slowly
across NM Tue thru Wed night, and then slowly across the TX
panhandle on Thu, and shows fairly widespread precip over southern
CO thru Wed and more spotty precip on Thu. Thus, there is low
confidence in the forecast for Tue through Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1114 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2019

VFR conditions are near certain during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, PUB, ALS and COS. Winds will be light and diurnally
driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LINE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH



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