Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 260823
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
323 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Saturday Night/
A cold front has started movg across ne TX and sw AR. Max pressure
gradient with front durg the mrng so nrly winds becmg lighter durg
the aftn as high pressure moves se along Red River Valley towards
the area in aftn. Dewpoints falling from upper 50s dewpoints into
the mid to upper 40s across ne portion of cwa, with lesser changes
over sw portions. Winds becmg lgt and skies becmg skc except for
possible thin cirrus remaining, allowing overnight lows to fall
well into the 50s Fri Night. Intense sfc low movg se across
central plains, sending yet another frontal boundary into areas of
se OK just north of Red River Saturday. With marginal moisture for
convection confined to near frontal boundary, expect low end
coverage tstms to sliver mainly nrn portions of cwa this wknd.
Moderately stg shear and steep mid lvl lapse rates above weak 850
mb inversion indicating possible mainly hail threat with the few
cells that do develop. Southerly winds pick up quickly on Saturday
but should remain below lwa criteria, although being on a wknd
will be watched closely. After a relatively cool night, temps will
return to near seasonal values for remainder of the wknd./07/.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/
Near-zonal flow aloft atop a stalled boundary draped across OK/AR
will be in place at the start of the pd. This may lead to a few
shwrs/tstms across our far nrn areas before the boundary lifts nwd
Sunday aftn. Upper flow to become more swly ahead of a closed low
off the coast of Baja Monday, with increasing chances for
shwrs/tstms as the disturbance opens and pushes ewd Tuesday/Tuesday
night. Trof to lift newd parallel to a stalled front, and swly flow
aloft will continue as broad-scale troughing sets up across the wrn
CONUS. This will leave us in a very wet and unsettled pattern
through the end of the work week, with the potential for training
storms and possibly flooding issues, primarily along and n of I-30.

With very little change in airmass expected during the long term,
and cloud cover/convection limiting sunshine, expect temps to run
very near mid/late april normals. /12/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  53  81  60 /   0   0   0  20
MLU  79  52  81  59 /   0   0   0  20
DEQ  78  52  80  58 /   0   0  30  30
TXK  76  53  80  60 /   0   0  20  20
ELD  77  52  81  59 /   0   0   0  20
TYR  76  56  82  61 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  77  55  82  59 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  81  56  83  61 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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