Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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441
FXUS64 KSHV 181042
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
442 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tuesday Night/
Partly cloudy skies with a ne breeze will keep temps from climbing
more than 10 or 15 degrees at the most from overnight lows either
side of 40 degrees. Frontal boundary, which is resting in the nrn
gulf, will create a classic overrunning situation as moisture
rapidly surges north late tonight. Inverted trough to remain
across area for a soaking wet Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Sfc low finally develops over LA and eastern portions of area
will see stg low lvl veering in combo with steepening lapse rates.
A few storms could become stg to svr for at least a brief window
by Tue eve as instability gradually becomes closer to being sfc
based. Areas north of I-30 will be the last to see the pcpn
arrive Tue morning and also the first to see rain exiting the area
late Tue night. Both time periods involve temps into the lower to
middle 30s and bear close watching. However, appears that lower
lvls that far north to remain dry thru daybreak Tue mrng and a
warm nose well above frzg in place in the 700 to 850 mb layer,
which should be enough to offset any evap cooling in possible very
lgt pcpn durg onset and will keep entire pcpn fcst all liquid for
now./07/.



LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday Night/
First wave of rain to be pushing e of our area by Wednesday morning,
and weak sfc ridge will build in over the region in its wake. Some
light precip may linger in our far sern corner, but this will play
little into the overall picture this pd. Meanwhile, resident
longwave trof over the wrn CONUS will send another impulse our way
initiating another round of overrunning precip Wednesday night
through Friday.

Very strong embedded shortwave will eject ewd Friday night, and sfc
cyclogenesis over the Srn/Central Plains will bring sly sfc flow
back to the region. As instability increases ahead of the negatively
tilted wave, tstms should become more numerous. Models in relatively
good agreement this pd that the impulse will lift newd across the TX
Panhandle into MO during the day Saturday, bringing widespread tstms
to our region, particularly across the nrn half. Still a lot of
uncertainty with respect to the potential for severe weather. The
strength/tilt of this impulse is compelling, so definitely cannot
rule it out attm.

Of equal concern this pd is the risk for heavy rainfall. Grounds
should be able to easily take the lower-end rain rates associated
with the first wave of precip leading into the long-term pd.
However, convective rain rates associated with the shortwave late
Friday and Saturday could easily bring our storm totals up into the
3-5 inch range in a relatively short time. Models have continued to
make adjustments with each run, and with this being in the day 5-6
timeframe, it`s still too early to nail down the QPF and any
specific flood threats. This will definitely bear watching over the
next few days.

We will finally work the precip e of our area Saturday night,
leaving us with dry and seasonable conditions to end the pd.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  39  45  41 /   0  60 100  80
MLU  50  42  49  48 /   0 100 100  90
DEQ  50  35  40  35 /   0  10 100  70
TXK  49  35  40  36 /   0  30 100  80
ELD  49  36  44  40 /   0  70 100  90
TYR  50  37  42  38 /   0  30 100  60
GGG  52  39  43  39 /   0  40 100  70
LFK  58  43  49  44 /   0  70 100  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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