Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 252319
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
619 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.AVIATION...
Weak upper-level ridge of high pressure to build across the region
overnight into Monday allowing for mainly dry conditions areawide.
Low-level southerly flow could allow for MVFR ceilings across
most terminal sites around daybreak through the mid-morning hours.
Otherwise, southeast winds around 5 knots tonight to become 10 to
15 knots and gusty on Monday. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 421 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019/

UPDATE...
Went ahead and added McCurtain county Oklahoma to the ongoing
heat advisory that is in effect for Monday. Update already out.
/05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday Night/
The upper level trough will continue to eject out of the Four
State Region this evening and will take the ongoing convective
activity with it. By tomorrow, the upper level ridge will push
back into the area from west, and along with it, drier air aloft.
At the surface, dewpoints will still be relatively high which
will couple with afternoon temperatures to produce heat index
values over 105F. Thus, have issued a Heat Advisory for all of
East Texas where guidance suggests the greatest chance of seeing
these elevated heat indices. Also, timing of the elevated heat
indices looks best for the afternoon hours into the early evening
hours; a narrow window but the danger exists nonetheless.

Late in the period there will be a front that will push south
across Oklahoma and Arkansas which will increase rain chances for
our northern zones. There is some uncertainty with the timing and
rainfall amounts at this time. /35/

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/
Weak nw flow aloft will continue thru mid week with broad upper
ridging over sw conus. Weak frontal boundary will drift into the
region Tue night and Wednesday with pops becmg high chance to
likely near frontal boundary, with front interacting with previous
outflow boundaries. As a result of this increased convection,
aftn highs remain in mid to upper 80s along and north of I-30 Tue
aftn and could remain in most of the cwa on Wednesday. Despite
this, a heat advisory may need to be continued into Tuesday as
areas south of convection may experience compressional warming and
dewpoint pooling invok front.

Models begin to differ on positioning of front beginning Thursday,
which will influence the timing of the backdooring of drier air
and lower dewpoints into area from AR. Will see a chance of tstms
over at least portions of ne TX thru Thursday and possibly into
Friday before airmass becomes more homogeneous across region over
the wknd. Dewpoints will remain in the mid 60s to around 70 with
conditions more marginal for isold convection. Temps will be back
into the 90s but uncertain whether humidity will rise enough for
heat advisory issuances./07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  95  77  94 /  20  10  10  20
MLU  73  91  76  92 /  30  20  10  30
DEQ  73  95  74  87 /  10  10  30  50
TXK  73  94  76  88 /  10  10  20  40
ELD  73  92  75  89 /  20  10  10  40
TYR  76  97  77  93 /   0  10  10  20
GGG  76  96  77  93 /  10  10  10  20
LFK  76  96  78  97 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05/35/07


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