Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 311735
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1235 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.AVIATION...

Most sites are starting out this TAF period in MVFR due to low
ceilings, however as the north wind keeps kicking, dry air will
continue to filter into the Four-States Region. By 01/00z, all
sites should be in VFR with scattered skies due to the
aforementioned dry air. Look for continued clearing into cirrus
above 25,000 feet, and eventually SKC for the remainder of this
forecast period. /44/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 954 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

UPDATE...

Morning observations were a few degrees warmer than the forecasted
trend, and clouds are starting to mix out across the region. As
such, quick morning update to bump up afternoon high temperatures a
few degrees. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

AVIATION...
In the wake of the frontal passage, IFR ceilings will prevail
with some brief periods of LIFR possible. As the upper level
trough continues to progress eastward, these ceilings will improve
to MVFR status during the morning into early afternoon hours. VFR
conditions are expected to return to all sites by the late
afternoon and will persist through the remainder of the forecast
period. /35/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Wednesday/

The cold front is shifting east across our eastern zones this
morning and is ending precipitation from west to east as it does
so. There may be some wrap-around rain early today across
Southwest Arkansas as the parent upper level system shifts east
but not expecting much. Winds are shifting to the north and
northwest behind the front and could be a little gusty today but
should remain below Lake Wind Advisory criteria. Short range
guidance is wanting to hold onto the cloud cover into the
afternoon, and if this happens, high temperatures today may not
warm up that much. Have lowered them a tad but maybe not enough.
Skies will clear and winds will decouple tonight as high pressure
builds in at the surface; there may be some patchy fog around the
region as a result. High temperatures will warm back into the 70s
on Wednesday as upper level ridging builds in from the west. /35/

LONG TERM.../Wednesday Night through Monday Night/

The axis of an upper level ridge will move east of the area during
the day Thursday allowing the flow aloft to transition back to
southwesterly and brining more Pacific moisture back into the
region. Another strong upper trough will move towards the Northern
Plains. A surface low and dryline will sharpen over the Southern
High Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front will dive southward towards
across the Central CONUS.

A weak shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains late
Thursday, which should provide enough ascent in the warm air
advection regime for scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms
across Central Oklahoma southward into Texas. This activity will
move eastward into our area Thursday night/early Friday morning.
There may be a brief break in the showers after sunrise Friday. The
best large scale forcing will be far north of the forecast area, but
strong instability combined with a weak upper disturbance embedded
in the flow should result in widespread convection along and ahead
of the cold front Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Deep
layer shear should also be strong enough to support the potential
for at least a couple of severe storms Friday afternoon and evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.

Model guidance is in sharp disagreement regarding the potential for
post-frontal rain on Saturday. Both models bring the front
completely through the forecast area, but the GFS suggests dry air
will move into the area during the day Saturday, so it is far less
aggressive with QPF. On the other hand, the ECMWF maintains quite a
bit of post-frontal rain across the entire area until late Saturday
evening. Higher PoPs were kept across the southeast half of the area
during the day Saturday, but were tapered down to chance PoPs in the
northwest.

The medium range models agree that there should be a brief break in
the rain Saturday night. However, yet another strong upper trough
will be digging into the Great Basin on Sunday. Strengthening
southwesterly flow will provide an ample supply of Pacific moisture
for another series of shortwave troughs to tap into. More showers
and thunderstorms are likely by Sunday afternoon and continuing for
most of Monday.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  46  72  53  73 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  46  71  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  44  70  51  72 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  45  70  53  71 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  44  71  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  47  70  53  71 /   0   0   0  40
GGG  46  71  53  73 /   0   0   0  30
LFK  49  74  54  76 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

CN/35/44/


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