Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 130918
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
418 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019


.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...

With the passage of the arctic cold front, temperatures have fallen
below freezing everywhere outside the extremely far southeastern
forecast area...however, there`s time for them to get there as well.
The Freeze Warning will continue through 10 AM this morning.

On the backside of the upper-level trough axis, differential AVA
will continue to fuel a strong surface high pressure system that
resides over the central Appalachians, and will move off the New
England coast by Thursday morning. This high pressure will dominate
the local weather pattern today with extremely dry air...PWATS in
last nights sounding was a whooping 0.08 inches...clear skies and
winds between 5-10 mph out of the ENE. Temperatures will remain
unseasonably cold, about 15-20 degrees below normal with high
temperatures topping out in the mid- to upper-40s, and lows in the
upper-20s to lower-30s.

Thursday, another upper-level shortwave trough will be digging down
into the Ozarks Plateau, and merge with a cutoff low-pressure system
coming across northern Mexico and far southern Texas. Ahead of this
system, a fetch of Gulf moisture from southwesterly flow will bring
back dense low-level cloud cover, with light rain showers forecast
in the afternoon. At this point, high res models are split on the
coverage and intensity of the forecasted rains, but overall little
impacts are expected.

Thiem


.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

As the extended period begins, the forecast area will be in
continued southwesterly flow and increasing deep moisture ahead of
an upper-level trough approaching from the west. Scattered to
numerous showers will also be ongoing ahead of the trough. By
Friday, this trough is expected to deepen into a cutoff low as it
moves into southern Alabama, and will continue to move eastward
towards southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle by Saturday. Some
discrepancies remain in the model guidance with respect to timing
and the track of the cutoff low, with the latest GFS solution moving
the cutoff low northeastward towards the Carolina coast by Saturday
afternoon and the latest ECMWF solution moving the system more
slowly towards the east Florida coast by Saturday night. As a
result, GFS moves precipitation out of north and central Georgia by
Saturday morning while ECMWF indicates precipitation will linger
until Saturday evening. Model guidance is trending towards a wetter
solution with greater precipitation coverage. As a result, rain
chances Thursday night into Friday have been increased to high-end
likely PoPS across much of the forecast area with diminishing PoPs
across the far northern tier. PoPs will then diminish later Friday
into Saturday, given the remaining uncertainty with the timing of
the system. Rainfall amounts associated with this system currently
look to be highest across east-central Georgia, where amounts of 1-2
inches are possible.

On Sunday, an upper level ridge and surface high pressure build in
over the southeastern CONUS, promoting dry conditions throughout the
day. Another trough then quickly approaches the forecast area in the
early parts of next week, moving over north and central Georgia on
Monday and Tuesday. Moisture associated with this system is
currently expected to be fairly limited, and no more than slight
chance PoPs are anticipated on Monday and Monday night as a result.
Rainfall totals are furthermore looking negligible, with little to
no measurable precipitation expected at this time. Temperatures will
gradually warm through the extended period. High temperatures of 10-
15 degrees below climatological averages (in the low to mid 50s
across the area) on Friday will steadily increasing each day to 0-5
degrees below average (in the low to mid 60s across the area) by
Tuesday. Lows will similarly run just below average, with
temperatures each morning in the 30s and 40s across the forecast
area.

King

&&


.CLIMATE...

Records for 11-13

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      83 1931     43 1904     61 1985     23 2013
                                        1945
   KATL      79 1938     40 1906     66 1879     21 1911
   KCSG      84 1915     47 1907     66 1929     28 1968
                                                    1963
                                                    1950
   KMCN      82 1938     47 1911     64 1916     27 2013
                                                    1987
                                                    1977

Records for 11-14

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      84 1931     38 1976     62 1961     23 2013
                            1906
   KATL      80 1955     35 1906     65 1879     22 1969
   KCSG      84 1924     46 1976     65 1961     20 1907
                            1969        1929
   KMCN      83 1955     44 1911     65 1929     21 2013


.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Gusty NNW winds
will be diminishing during the overnight tonight and becoming ENE
for Wednesday 10 kts or less. Expecting winds to go from NNW to
NNE around 08-09Z at ATL tonight.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium to high on overnight wind speeds and gusts.
High confidence on all elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          46  28  45  37 /   0   0  30  70
Atlanta         46  31  45  38 /   0   0  30  60
Blairsville     43  24  46  33 /   0   0  20  40
Cartersville    47  29  48  35 /   0   0  20  50
Columbus        51  34  50  41 /   0   5  40  70
Gainesville     44  29  45  37 /   0   0  30  60
Macon           49  30  48  40 /   0  10  40  70
Rome            48  28  48  35 /   0   0  20  30
Peachtree City  47  30  46  38 /   0   0  30  70
Vidalia         51  35  54  45 /   0  10  30  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...Cherokee...
Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...DeKalb...
Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...
Glascock...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...
Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...
Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...
Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...
Paulding...Peach...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...
Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...
Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...
Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...Thiem


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