Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 022346
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
646 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

..Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion..

$$

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 248 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

A cool/cloudy afternoon across north and central Georgia as an
upper level low pressure system, currently over southern Arkansas,
is responsible for sending Gulf moisture overtop the area today.
Initial wave resulted in light to moderate rain, mainly south of
I-20, where temperatures have remained nearly steady in the 40s
for much of the day. Not much different north of I-20 despite
little to no rainfall, as clouds and cool E/NE sfc winds have kept
temps down across north GA as well.

As upr lvl system over Arkansas and deepening sfc low over the
northern Gulf approach the area tonight, a more organized area of
moderate to locally heavy rain will develop and overspread the
area from southwest to northeast. The heaviest axis of rain
tonight is expected to be along and south of a Columbus to Macon
to Warrenton line in central GA where 1 to 2.5 inches can be
expected in the next 12-18 hours. Overall threat for thunderstorms
with very little to no sfc-based instability however, however
very pronounced/deep ascent along the 850mb baroclinic zone
coupled with favorable upr lvl support between 700-500mb could
support a few lightning strikes along with locally heavy
rainfall. Depending on where pockets of heavier rain set up, we
could be dealing with localized flooding issues late tonight into
Wednesday morning, especially along creeks and streams or poor
drainage areas. No need for widespread Flood Watch but will
continue to highlight this localized flood/flash flood threat in
HWO.

Drier conditions return Wednesday into Wednesday night with
temperatures running near normal for early March.

DJN.83

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

An upper-level ridge centered over the central CONUS will edge
eastward on Thursday, while an upper-level cutoff low riding atop
the ridge traverses the Four Corners region. Models generally
agree that the upper low will then dive southeast across the
ArkLaMiss Friday through early Saturday, generating a surface low
in the northern Gulf. There are differences between the global
models concerning the coverage of rain associated with this system
on Saturday (the GFS is more bullish than the ECMWF and Canadian
with precip coverage). Have chance PoPs for light showers across
our southernmost counties with slight chance PoPs elsewhere on
Saturday.

Surface temperatures look to generally be in the mid-30s on
Saturday morning across the higher terrain of north Georgia, and
500 mb temperatures over this area are forecast to be as low as
around -20 deg. C (though how much moisture is present in the
dendritic growth zone remains to be seen). So, have a slight
chance for light snow showers mixing with the remaining light
rain showers across the higher terrain on Saturday morning.

The upper-level ridge will shift further over the eastern CONUS
on Sunday and remain in place through Tuesday, with a sprawling
area of high pressure keeping conditions dry across the CWA.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Rain continues to overspread the CWA from the south with CSG/MCN
currently in MVFR. Expecting cigs to continue to fall through the
night across the metro TAF sites, staying MVFR for most of the
evening, before dropping to IFR near 04z. Clearing expected
tomorrow morning/afternoon as system pushes through, with winds
shifting NNW around 12z with cigs starting to improve near 14z.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

High confidence on winds and wind shift. Medium confidence on all
other elements.

Morgan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          38  63  39  69 /  90  50   0   0
Atlanta         39  60  41  66 /  90  20   0   0
Blairsville     35  59  35  62 /  80  20   0   0
Cartersville    37  61  37  66 /  90  10   0   0
Columbus        42  63  41  69 / 100  20   0   0
Gainesville     38  63  40  67 /  90  30   0   0
Macon           41  63  38  71 / 100  40   0   0
Rome            38  63  36  68 /  80  10   0   0
Peachtree City  39  61  38  67 /  90  20   0   0
Vidalia         44  60  41  68 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...Morgan



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