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000
FXUS62 KFFC 111951
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
351 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Near Zonal upper level flow remains over the area through the
short term. This flow will bring wave after wave eastward out of
the Mid MS river valley into GA through Thu. There is still a
weak cold front laying west to east across central GA and it is
slowly moving southward. With ample moisture in place and temps
in the upper 70s to mid 80s across central portions of the state
showers and isolated thunderstorms are popping up across the area.
These isolated showers will become more wide spread tonight as
the first wave moves in from the west right around 06z Wed. Good
deep layer moisture moves in with this next wave but instabilities
stay fairly weak over night. PWs increase into the 1.2 to 1.6
inch range over night so all in all looking for some isolated
thunderstorms with periods of heavy rain. Areas along and south
of Interstate 20 will see 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain overnight.
Will see some thunderstorms but not expecting any severe weather.
Will see a bit of a break with the heavy rain Wed afternoon but
another wave moves back in Wed night into Thu morning. QPF values
show a 3 day total of 1 to 2 inches for area south of a Rome to
Gainesville line.

A strong surface high developing over the Midwest is expected to
extend high pressure ridging into northeast Georgia during the
daytime on Wednesday, which will initiate a CAD airmass over north
Georgia and into portions of central Georgia. Unseasonably cool
temperatures are forecast on Wednesday afternoon as a result of
this airmass, with temperatures dropping as low as the mid-50s in
the afternoon hours. Low cloud ceilings and patchy fog are also
possible within this airmass on Wednesday. This CAD wedge is
expected to persist beyond the short term period, as evaporative
cooling from elevated rain falling through it on Wednesday will
keep the airmass in place.

01


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
If you`re a fan of summer, this AFD is not meant for you. We start
the longer term off with well below seasonal temperatures with highs
on Thursday in the mid 60s. These highs range from 15 to 20 degrees
below what we would expect for this time of year. Overnight Thursday
and into Friday, low temps will struggle to reach 50. As we move
toward the weekend, things begin to improve through with daytime
highs climbing back into the mid 70s by Saturday and then back to
the low 80s by the time the weekend comes to a close.

As far as rain goes, a stationary front will linger over the area
keeping in a slight chance of rain for SE Georgia before finally
pushing out by Friday late morning. After that, we`re looking at
sunny weekend before a slight chance of rain with a few
thunderstorms possible approaches next Tuesday. Models are currently
at odds with each other for next weeks precip as the GFS has an
upper level low moving through the Great Lakes with a cold front
sweeping through N Georgia Tuesday and into Wednesday. The ECMWF has
a blocking high and surface ridging that keeps SE CONUS dry. Kept
chance PoPs in for the time being.

Vaughn


&&


.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Isolated showers popping up across the area but the real precip
moves in tonight. Looking for rain to move into the TAF sites
starting right around sunset and will continue off and on through
the rest of the TAF period. Winds are out of the NW and will turn
to the NE around 3z then to the E by 15-17z Wed. Wind speeds will
stay 10kt or less through tonight with speeds increasing to 10kt
with gust to 20kt by 15-17z Wed. VSBYS will mainly stay VFR with
some MVFR VSBYs expected in and around any stronger showers Wed.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          54  58  47  65 / 100 100  20  30
Atlanta         57  60  49  63 /  90  90  20  30
Blairsville     51  56  45  62 / 100  80  20  20
Cartersville    54  59  48  66 /  90  70  20  20
Columbus        65  70  52  66 /  80  80  30  30
Gainesville     54  57  48  63 /  90  90  20  20
Macon           63  68  50  65 /  70  90  30  40
Rome            54  60  49  69 /  90  60  20  20
Peachtree City  58  62  48  64 /  90  90  20  30
Vidalia         66  73  52  64 /  70  80  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...01