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000
FXUS62 KFFC 191131
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
631 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 418 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020/

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...

Unsettled weather will persist through the short term forecast
period. A cold front slowly sagging southward through the area
brought heavy rainfall to much of the area Tuesday evening, leading
to localized flooding issues. These earlier heavy rainfall rates
have gradually diminished through the morning hours with generally
only light lingering post-frontal showers at this hour. Though some
remaining light rain showers can be expected through today, there
will be a break from the heavier rainfall as the front slowly pushes
south of the area. Given the much lighter additional QPF today, the
Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled, though ongoing rises on a
number of local waterways can be expected through today.

As the front stalls to the south, a southern stream shortwave will
bring another wave of rainfall to the area beginning overnight and
into the day Thursday. Current forecast additional rainfall totals
tonight into Thursday will be heaviest across the southern half of
the area where an additional 1"+ is expected. While these totals
would not lead to widespread flash flooding concerns, wet soils will
lead to additional runoff that would contribute to ongoing rises on
creeks/streams. At this time, will not be issuing an additional
Flood Watch for tonight into Thursday, though localized flooding
concerns cannot be ruled out.

The other forecast note of interest on Thursday will be wintry
precipitation potential in parts of far north Georgia.
Precipitation will be ongoing as an upper shortwave trough sweeps
southward toward the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians. With cold
air advection, temperature profiles would support a rain/snow mix or
transition to light snow across primarily the higher elevations
of far north Georgia by midday Thursday into Thursday afternoon.
While some valley locations could see a mix or brief transition
to snow, surface temperatures appear marginal for much/any
accumulation outside of the higher elevations where an inch or
perhaps as high as the 2" range would be possible before
precipitation comes to a quick end Thursday evening.

Temperatures will fall rapidly Thursday night after the
precipitation ends with Friday morning lows ranging through the 20s
across north Georgia. Any lingering wet roadways could thus
experience patchy black ice concerns across north Georgia,
particularly on sheltered or lesser-traveled routes that do not
experience drying.

RW

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

Starting on Friday, we`ll finally get relief from the ongoing deluge
plaguing the southeast. High pressure will move into the area and
highs will climb from the mid-40s on Friday to the mid-50s on
Saturday as the heavens open and mostly clear skies make their way
in. It will be short lived, as by Sunday a warm, moist conveyer belt
of moisture moves over the region once again brings precip back to
the area by late Sunday night.

Model guidance gets a bit messy with the evolution of this system.
Some long range models have heavier convection coming through on
Monday and some have lighter showers. It is likely that a cold
frontal passage will occur early Tuesday with a slight break from
the rains in the morning, but there are big discrepancies on whether
the frontal system will stall and be the axis of heavier convection
from a developing system over the Midwest or if it pushes through
and drys the area out for a few days. More will be known as we get
towards the weekend.

Thiem

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Largely IFR cigs persist this morning, though there area a few
breaks as high as VFR at times. More persistent improvement toward
MVFR is more likely at ATL sites by 15-17z. -Shra coverage will
continue to diminish at ATL sites through around 16z and persist
at CSG/MCN through 20z or so. IFR cigs become more likely again
after 06z Thursday with widespread RA increasing thereafter as
well. Current NW/W winds at 5-10 kts will transition to NE by
18-20z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          56  39  41  30 /  60  60  90  40
Atlanta         56  40  42  30 /  50  70  90  20
Blairsville     53  36  38  23 /  40  40  80  20
Cartersville    53  40  43  27 /  40  60  90  10
Columbus        62  46  48  35 /  50  80  90  40
Gainesville     54  38  40  28 /  50  50  80  20
Macon           64  43  45  34 /  60  70  90  50
Rome            52  41  43  27 /  40  60  90  10
Peachtree City  58  41  44  31 /  60  70  90  30
Vidalia         67  44  46  36 /  40  70  90  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...RW