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000
FXUS62 KFFC 202337
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
737 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
No major forecast concerns. Isolated light showers over far SE
counties now not expected to measure unless something changes.
Some more substantial showers further SE could make it but will
dissipate after sunset either way. More coverage of SHRA and some
isold TSRA Wed afternoon but again mainly over middle and east
GA. Convection Wed should not be strong or severe but something
to watch. Guidance PoPs a tad lower than this time yesterday which
can`t argue against based on model RH and height fields. Temps
still above average for the foreseeable further.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
At the start of the forecast period, a slightly more unsettled
pattern will come into play with isolated to scattered PoPs on the
increase. At the surface, high pressure will wedge into the area
from the northeast Thursday into Friday. PoPs will be on the return
as deeper moisture increases and maximized on Friday as a midlevel
disturbance traverses the area.

Meanwhile, a cold front to the northwest will not make progress into
the area and instead stalls over the Tennessee Valley over the
weekend. Scattered convection can still be expected Saturday as deep
moisture remains in place. PoPs Sunday look more isolated with
increased upper ridging. Upper flow turns southwest Sunday into
Monday ahead of the next front, beyond which time model
discrepancies increase substantially. While the ECMWF has favored a
strong cold frontal passage by midweek, the latest GFS holds any
front to the west through that time.

With no cold front in the offing through at least early next week,
temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions to start this TAF set but some MVFR and IFR
ceilings will move in overnight before sunrise. These lower
ceilings will continue through the morning hours then dissipated
and lift back into the VFR range by 15z-17z Wed. Winds will stay
out of the East at 10kt or less. No precipitation or restrictions
to VSBYs expected.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          59  78  62  78 /   5  10   5  20
Atlanta         60  78  62  77 /   0   5   5  20
Blairsville     55  76  57  74 /   5   5   5  10
Cartersville    58  81  62  80 /   0   5   5  10
Columbus        64  82  65  82 /   0  20  10  30
Gainesville     58  77  62  77 /   5   5  10  20
Macon           63  82  63  83 /   5  20  20  30
Rome            58  82  61  82 /   0   0   5  10
Peachtree City  60  79  62  79 /   5  10   5  20
Vidalia         67  83  67  82 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...01