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000
FXUS62 KFFC 171141
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
741 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
Yesterday proved the atmosphere is gearing up to support increased
convection this week. Today will be another step towards a much
wetter pattern as moisture continues to increase. Precipitable
water values yesterday increased to 1.25 to 1.50 inches while
today will be a more widespread 1.50 to in some cases pushing 2
inches. Strong shortwave will push into the Mississippi Valley
this afternoon which could actually act to increase heights
locally. Despite this, with the increased deep layer moisture and
modest CAPE values, should still see increased coverage of storms.

Most all of the hi res guidance indicates mid range scattered pops
for the entire area and have followed suit with the grids.
Impressive DCAPE values this afternoon and it is just a question
if we can generate enough instability to support these values. For
now, will indicate isolated severe storm potential in HWO.

Shortwave will approach the area during the latter portion of the
overnight hours and will need to keep some low end pops in even
then. Will be a question of timing for Tuesday as there may not be
a whole lot of time to generate instability ahead of the
shortwave. Regardless, precipitable water in excess of 2 inches
combined with the lift of the shortwave should be enough to
realize likely pops. Likewise, without ample instability, severe
potential may actually decrease as the heavy rain potential
increases.

Deese

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
A general zonal upper level flow is expected to continue through
the long term with just some variation and along with ample moisture
and instability, will allow for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through much of the period. The exception will be on
Thursday when a short wave will move across the area and will allow
for occasional showers and storms(pop 80% plus). The passage of the
short wave on Thursday will allow for slightly less overall convective
activity Friday into Sunday but scattered showers and storms can still
be expected.

Overall, temperatures will continue to run within several degrees
of normal through the long term period.

BDL

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
Increased moisture for Monday should allow for more
cloud cover by the early afternoon hours. Will go Tempo BKN050
for all sites and include TSRA as well as rain chances look to
increase as well. Winds at ATL have gone back to SW and should
remain there for the remainder of the TAF period.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
High on all elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  70  87  70 /  40  30  50  50
Atlanta         90  71  86  70 /  40  30  60  50
Blairsville     84  64  80  63 /  40  40  70  60
Cartersville    91  70  87  69 /  40  40  60  50
Columbus        93  72  90  72 /  40  40  60  40
Gainesville     89  69  84  70 /  40  40  60  50
Macon           93  70  90  70 /  40  40  50  40
Rome            91  70  86  69 /  40  30  70  60
Peachtree City  91  70  87  69 /  40  30  60  50
Vidalia         93  72  90  73 /  40  20  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Deese