Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 260012

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
812 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

...Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion and Current Trends...

Some minor updates to the near term forecast for PoP trends and
rain cooled air, but otherwise things are on track. More rain on
tap tonight into tomorrow.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 329 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

As has been the case over the last several days, showers and
thunderstorms are currently on the increase across portions of the
forecast area this afternoon. This moist regime has been courtesy of
abundant Gulf moisture being shunted northward as the area has
remained situated between the western Atlantic ridge and the trough
over the Southern Plains. The initial concern for the remainder of
the afternoon into this evening will be heavy rainfall potential
associated with the ongoing line of convection across western
Georgia as it propagates relatively slowly east-northeastward.
Locally heavy rainfall rates could create some isolated flooding
concerns given antecedent conditions from periodic rainfall that has
occurred over the last several days. This activity will generally
weaken later tonight, though at least isolated to scattered showers
and a couple thunderstorms will remain possible into the overnight
hours. A couple of strong thunderstorms or an isolated severe
thunderstorm will also be possible into the evening given 0-1km
shear of 20-25kts across north/west GA somewhat overlapping with
1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE to the south, with an attendant damaging
wind gust threat.

The primary round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms will
come on Thursday ahead of the surface cold front that will be
ushered toward the area as the aforementioned trough ejects into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. Convective coverage is expected to initially
increase from midday into the afternoon hours. Locally heavy
rainfall will again be a primary concern given high PWs and
antecedent conditions. At this point, opted not to issue a Flood
Watch and will evaluate how much QPF occurs with this evening`s
convection which would contribute to hydrological concerns on
Thursday. Even so, at least a localized flooding threat could be
expected with additional QPF of 1-2" with locally higher amounts on
Thursday. Additionally, a Marginal Risk for severe weather will
exist given increased deep layer shear on Thursday, though forecast
instability appears relatively weak given widespread cloud cover.
The primary risk will be locally damaging wind gusts, though a brief
tornado threat would also be possible.

The cold front will begin to clear the area from west to east by
Thursday evening into the overnight hours, bringing a return to
drier conditions, though showers and thunderstorms will


LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Upper low will continue to meander over the Ohio Valley early in the
period. This low will move east into the Middle Atlantic by the
weekend and then offshore by early next week, with an upper ridge
building across the CWA. The models are progging this low pressure
system to retrograde by mid week as the high pressure ridge builds
to the north of the upper low.

At the surface, high pressure will begin to build in behind a cold
front later on Friday. A few wrap around showers are possible, but
the bulk of the precip should be east of the CWA at the beginning of
the long term period. Dry conditions will persist for the late
weekend into early next week with high pressure aloft and at the
surface. However, as an upper low retrogrades SW, it may support
increasing low level moisture/precipitation across the southeast



00Z Update...
Some showers linger near the metro TAF sites, but activity is
quickly coming to an end. AHN could experience some SHRA or TSRA
over next few hours. MVFR with possible IFR cigs possible tonight
into the early morning hours for metro TAF sites, from 04Z-14Z.
Some uncertainty as to the extension of these into the metro, but
still expect MVFR impacts either way. Multiple rounds of SHRA and
TSRA will be possible tomorrow at all sites. While PROB30 contains
first round, TSRA will be possible well into the evening hours
given current forecast. Winds will be from the SE, moving to SSW
tomorrow, 8-13 kts with gusts up to 25 kts possible (and higher in
TSRA could be possible as well).

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence in cigs tonight. High all others.



Athens          66  80  64  81 /  70  90  90  20
Atlanta         66  78  63  78 /  70  90  80  10
Blairsville     62  73  57  73 /  80  90  90  20
Cartersville    65  77  60  78 /  60  90  80  10
Columbus        66  80  64  82 /  60  90  80   5
Gainesville     66  76  63  77 /  70  90  90  20
Macon           68  84  65  86 /  50  80  90  20
Rome            66  77  60  79 /  50  90  80  10
Peachtree City  65  79  61  80 /  60  90  80   5
Vidalia         71  88  70  85 /  10  30  70  60




LONG TERM....NListemaa
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