636
FXUS62 KFFC 210208
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1008 PM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025


...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Forecast remains on track for this evening. Lingering cloud cover
in the wake of the cold front that mixed through the forecast area
earlier today will continue to recede through the night,
supporting overnight lows dipping below the freezing mark for
portions of north and west central Georgia. A Freeze Watch goes
into effect beginning at 2AM tonight for the aforementioned areas
forecast to fall below 32 degrees, with a Frost Advisory going
into effect for much of the remainder of the area concurrently.


96

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

As the cold front continues to advance towards east-central Georgia,
showers ahead of the front are exiting the forecast area to the
southeast. Meanwhile, breezy northwesterly winds on the back side of
the front is ushering in a noticeably cooler airmass. Temperatures
the remainder of the afternoon will struggle to get above 50 in
areas along and north of I-85, well behind the cold front.
Temperatures will be progressively warmer to the south and east
where the colder airmass has not had a chance to settle in yet.
Northwesterly winds this afternoon will be between 15-20 kts with
gusts as high as 30 kts across the area. As wraparound moisture on
the back side of the parent low pressure system overspreads north
Georgia, a broken cloud deck between 4000-5000 ft has formed over
portions of north and west Georgia. Isolated showers may furthermore
be observed in the highest elevations of far north Georgia this
afternoon. The cloud deck is expected to dissipate and the chances
for light showers are expected to end by tonight.

Clearing skies and diminishing winds will allow for plenty of
radiational cooling within the colder airmass. Low temperatures
overnight into Friday morning are expected to range from the upper
20s to low 30s in in portions of north and west Georgia, warranting
a Freeze Warning in these locations. To the south, lows will drop
into the mid 30s, with a Frost Advisory being maintained as a
result. An upper level ridge will advance across the eastern CONUS
during the daytime Friday, with an associated surface high sliding
across the central Gulf Coast, which will allow temperatures to
rebound during the daytime. High temperatures will rise into the low
to mid 60s in north Georgia and into the upper 60s in central
Georgia. RH values on Friday afternoon are forecast to be below
critical fire danger thresholds for several hours, with minimum
values ranging from 16-22 percent across the area. Considering that
gusty winds today will once again dry out 10-hr fuels, a Fire Danger
Statement will likely be needed across the entire forecast area for
Friday afternoon. The ridge will move towards the Atlantic coast
Friday night, at which point a shortwave will swing through the
Tennessee Valley region. With very little moisture at the low
levels, precipitation is not expected and impacts will be limited to
an increase in high clouds across north Georgia.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Key Messages

-Fire weather concerns will persist into the weekend amid continued
low afternoon relative humidity values.

-The next chance for rainfall looks to arrive Sunday night into
Monday. Severe potential currently appears fairly low.

Dry weather will remain the rule headed into the weekend. A
shortwave and associated dry cold front will skirt the area on
Saturday, bringing no precipitation but breezier conditions.
Temperatures were again adjusted upward for Saturday afternoon by
blending in NBM90 while afternoon dewpoints were blended with NBM10
as this should better represent the expected dry airmass. As such,
Saturday looks to be another Fire Danger day. While winds will be
breezy Saturday, at this juncture, they appear to remain below Red
Flag criteria; however, this potential will be evaluated as we
approach Saturday.

By Sunday, some degree of moisture return will begin in advance of
the next cold front. Even so, relative humidity values are fairly
likely again to breach fire danger criteria on Sunday for at least
portions of the area. By Sunday night, PoPs will begin to increase
from the northwest as the next cold front approaches. This rainfall
will then spread southeastward across the remainder of the area
through the day Monday. The more favorable upper support associated
with this system will remain well north of the area as the parent
low pushes across the Great Lakes states. Additionally, instability
will be waning with probabilities for SBCAPE reaching 250 J/kg
largely <30% areawide (though some uptick is possible in Middle
Georgia Monday afternoon). The orientation of the cold front by this
time will also be such that low-level winds will be becoming
parallel to the boundary. All this is to say, the severe threat
currently appears on the lower side from Sunday night into Monday
with higher probabilities remaining to our north and west on Sunday.
QPF with this front also currently appears relatively low, with
probabilities for any location reaching the 1" threshold currently
<20%. Rainfall totals on the order of 0.25-0.50" with locally higher
totals currently appear most reasonable.

Dry weather then appears likely to return in the wake of this front
amid northwest flow aloft through midweek. As such, fire danger
concerns will likely make a quick reappearance. Temperatures will
largely run above normal through the extended, ranging from as much
as 8-11 degrees above normal Saturday to near or only a couple
degrees above normal on Monday.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

BKN-OVC low-VFR likely to linger thru 04-05Z, then rapid clearing
to SKC/FEW at 20-25kft. Elevated WNW winds to continue at 11-16kts
sustained with gusts to 22-28kts psbl thru 05Z. By daybreak,
expect winds to have slackened to 6-9kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          55  62  34  66 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         56  57  35  64 /  20   0   0   0
Blairsville     51  51  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    52  54  31  63 /  30   0   0   0
Columbus        57  60  34  67 /  30   0   0   0
Gainesville     55  57  34  64 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           59  65  36  68 /  10  60   0   0
Rome            49  52  30  64 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  55  57  33  65 /  50   0   0   0
Vidalia         55  70  39  68 /   0  30   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for GAZ001>005-011-
012-019>021-030>032-041>043-052.

Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for GAZ022-023-025-
033>037-044>050-053>061-066>074-078>085-089>097-102>109.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...96