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000
FXUS62 KFFC 221426
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1026 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017



.UPDATE...
Cold front is currently crossing the Mississippi River. High
pressure is still anchored across the Middle Atlantic and should
begin to push offshore later today. Precip changes remain very
small and mostly confined to the southern portion of the CWFA.
Temperatures look on track, but have tweaked the sky grids.


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 737 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

The dry conditions we have seen over the past week are over as
increased moisture and precip moves into the state today and
tonight. High pressure centered over the mid atlantic states finally
looses its grip on the eastern seaboard as a developing frontal
system moves east out of the MS river valley today. East to
southeasterly flow ahead of this frontal system will help to
increases RH levels across the region today. This will prime the
atmosphere for the showers and thunderstorms expected to move in
with the frontal movement beginning this evening and continuing
Monday. Will see increased cloud cover today with a few light
showers this afternoon but the main precip moves into west GA just
after sunset tonight. Showers will increase across north and central
GA from the west with and isolated thunderstorms or two as well
overnight. There is a little instability across the area as this
precip pushes into the state tonight but it looks like the best
chance of thunder/strong storms will be Monday afternoon during the
prime heating of the day.

The biggest concern with this frontal passage is the best
instability is over the area tonight but the best shear values are
over the area Monday afternoon. With this in mind...we could see
some thunder over night but the stronger storms and possible
rotating storms will be mainly over eastern GA Mon afternoon just
before it exits the area. Currently we are not expecting much in the
way of severe weather but would not be surprised if wee see a severe
storm or two Monday afternoon. This also matches well with the
current SPC thinking as east GA is under a Marginal risk area for
Day 2.

High temps today will be mainly in the 70s and 80s with temps Monday
in the 60s and 70s. Lows tonight will be in the 60s to lower 70s.

01

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

Heavier precipitation should be sweeping east of the forecast area as
the period begins Monday night into early Tuesday. Right now it
appears that moisture will be too limited Wednesday for POPs as a
secondary upper trough and associated short wave move across. This
secondary system does push through another shot of good cold
advection with our coolest temperatures of the week expected
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Highly amplified and very progressive
upper pattern transitions the region back to southwesterly upper flow
quickly with a subsequent quick rebound in temperatures back toward
seasonal normals by the end of the week. The next upper trough/short
wave and the associated surface front sweep through next weekend.

20

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions to start but ceilings will transition into the
MVFR range and eventually IFR through the TAF period. will see
some FEW to SCT clouds around 2500ft but the MVFR ceilings are
expected to move in after 00z Mon. Precip will also move into the
TAF sites just after 00z Mon with SHRA increasing through the
night. Expect TSRA chances to increase at the TAF sites after 16z
Mon. Winds will remain out of the E to SE through the period.
Wind speeds will start near 10kts increasing to 10-12 knots this
afternoon with gusts to 20kts. Gust will trail off after 00z Mon.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on ceilings.
High confidence on other elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  71  54  69 /  80  90  60  10
Atlanta         68  70  53  66 /  80  90  40   5
Blairsville     61  66  48  60 /  80  90  50  10
Cartersville    66  69  50  65 /  80  90  30   5
Columbus        71  74  55  71 /  80  90  30   5
Gainesville     66  68  53  66 /  80  90  50  10
Macon           70  74  55  71 /  80  90  50   5
Rome            66  69  50  66 /  80  90  30  10
Peachtree City  68  71  52  67 /  80  90  30   5
Vidalia         71  79  59  74 /  50  90  70  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$