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000
FXUS62 KFFC 190236
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1036 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.UPDATE...
Convection has diminished across the area this evening. Have
removed POPs from forecast. The rest of the forecast looks on
track and no further changes planned. Updated forecasts will be
issued shortly.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 256 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

A weak surface low over Florida Panhandle will continue to slowly
traverse northeastward into southern Georgia through the short term.
Meanwhile, at the upper levels the area will be situated in the weak
trough between the ridge over the central Plains and the western
Atlantic ridge. This setup will lead to diurnally driven convection
both this afternoon and again on Monday.

Through the remainder of this afternoon and evening, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop before gradually
waning in coverage after sunset. A moisture gradient exists across
the area with the highest PWs in the southern and eastern portions
of the CWA. It is in these areas where the scattered convective
coverage is expected to be highest through this evening though
additional isolated activity is expected in points farther north and
east. Given slow movement, locally heavy rainfall will be possible
under any thunderstorm that develops.

Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Monday
afternoon. Coverage will likely spread farther northward on Monday
as moisture increases further, but the highest coverage will again
be skewed toward the southeastern portions of the area.

Highs Monday will again run above normal for all areas with the
exception of the far southeast where more cloud cover and showers
are expected. Temperatures 5-9 degrees above average will lead to
heat index values near or just above 100 for much of the area.

RW

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

No big changes to the long term. The forecast area will remain in a
weak upper trough through the period with increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Have upped the pops for Friday in the
vicinity of the frontal boundary that drops into north GA. Previous
discussion is included below.

41

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 412 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019/

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
A pattern change begins in the short term, and continues through
the extended periods. Diurnally enhanced scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will be the norm through day 7. The area will
remain situated in the weak upper trough between the ridge over
the Plains and western Atlantic ridge. The over all weather
pattern will provide the boost for afternoon and evening
scattered shower and thunderstorm development. Precipitable water
values also increase into the 1.7-2.0 inch range beginning Tues
which will contribute to the potential for locally heavy rainfall
into next weekend.

By the end of the week, the models are showing a cold front
pushing south out of the great lake state Thursday and into North
GA Friday. The models show this frontal boundary stalling of the
southeastern U.S. and keeping rain chances across the region
through the end of the forecast period. If this frontal boundary
pushes a little further south into North Fl will will see a much
drier forecast so will have to keep a close eye on this as we get
closer to the weekend. As for now, will continue with scattered
convection each day.

Temperatures, while tempered somewhat by increased convection, will
remain above normal through the week. The increased moisture will
also keep afternoon heat index values from the upper 90s to low
100s.

01

AVIATION.../Issued 811 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019/
00Z Update...
VFR conditions will prevail at TAF sites through this evening.
Isolated convection is diminishing and do not expect it will reach
the TAF sites. IFR cigs/MVFR vsbys are likely between 07-10z at
CSG/MCN/AHN. Winds will be light and relatively variable out of
the southwest through 02-03z before shifting to the southeast.
Wind speeds 6 kts or less are expected.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium to high confidence all elements.

Atwell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  93  71  91 /  10  40  30  40
Atlanta         74  94  73  93 /  10  40  30  40
Blairsville     66  88  66  87 /   5  40  30  50
Cartersville    72  95  72  95 /  10  30  30  40
Columbus        74  93  74  93 /  20  40  30  40
Gainesville     72  92  71  92 /  10  30  30  40
Macon           73  91  72  90 /  10  40  30  50
Rome            72  96  72  96 /   5  30  20  30
Peachtree City  72  94  72  93 /  10  40  30  40
Vidalia         73  88  72  90 /  20  60  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Atwell
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Atwell