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000
FXUS62 KFFC 020814
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
414 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion for Tuesday, June 2nd...

.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

Forecast area remains on the western edge of the surface ridge
centered off of the Carolina coast through the forecast period.
High center does slowly ease further off of the coast through the
period allowing better moisture return into the far west by
Wednesday. Should see at least isolated, mainly diurnal,
convection across the west by Wednesday as the upper ridge breaks
down over the region. Models also showing a weak mid-level wave
lifting into the central/northeast gulf coast area Wednesday which
should help to enhance the precipitation potential a bit across
the far west. Temperatures remain near seasonal normals.

20


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

Long term forecast starts on Wednesday night with core of surface
high pressure that had been over the CWA continuing to push out into
the Atlantic. A large Omega block over the north Atlantic is
expected to remain in place through the weekend keeping things
rather stagnant on the synoptic scale over the eastern CONUS with a
weak, zonal jet to our north. With surface high pressure to our
east, southerly flow will bring plenty of moisture into the area
each day which combined with ample afternoon heating from the sun
this time of year will provide for chances of afternoon
thunderstorms most days through the forecast period, even though
that heating may be somewhat limited by high cloud cover thanks to
convective blow off in the gulf. Highs will generally range from the
mid 80s to upper 80s across the CWA with moisture steadily on the
increase into the weekend thanks to this persistent southerly flow.
Dewpoints are expected to reach into the upper 60s in north Georgia
to the 70s across most of central/middle GA by the weekend -
conditions that are downright sultry. Generally going with the NBM
in Days 3-5 (Thursday-Saturday) with only minor changes to our
current forecast.

The weekend is where things do get a bit more interesting, as we
continue to monitor the development of Tropical Depression 3 in the
Bay of Campeche. Some runs of the operational models and GEFS have
tended toward a solution in which the TD makes landfall and
dissipates over the Mexican coastline, and then a new circulation
embedded within the larger Central American Gyre emerges off the
Yucatan into the Gulf and develops into a new storm which moves
toward the US coastline as it is picked up by the weak steering
currents of a cut-off low off the California coastline merging with
a large trough over the west coast. However, a large number of
European ensemble members from the earlier 12Z run instead keep
the TD over water and intensify it as it begins to move northward
towards the US after being picked up by the same steering current
described above. All this to say: there is certainly increasing
confidence of a tropical system of some variety impacting the US
towards the end of the forecast period, though the overall
strength and location remains to be seen. Additionally, we are far
enough out that there may be subtle mesoscale processes that
impact the system or steering currents that our coarser global
models may simply not be able to resolve, which could impact the
track, strength, or even existence of any tropical system. The
exact track (or existence) of this system will have substantial
implications on what the forecast looks like Day 6 and beyond, so
will generally trend away from any likely or higher PoPs until we
have a better handle on it.

Lusk


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...

VFR conditions are expected to predominate through this forecast
period. East to southeast winds 6kt or less through 14-16Z, becoming
south to southwest 6-10kt.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

High.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          87  64  89  69 /   5   5  10  10
Atlanta         86  66  87  69 /   5   5  20  10
Blairsville     82  60  84  64 /  10   5  30  20
Cartersville    87  64  88  67 /   5   5  30  20
Columbus        91  67  88  70 /   5   5  30  10
Gainesville     84  64  87  69 /   5   5  20  10
Macon           91  64  88  68 /   0   5  10  10
Rome            88  64  89  67 /  10   5  30  20
Peachtree City  89  64  87  67 /   5   5  30  10
Vidalia         89  64  90  70 /   5   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...20