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534
FXUS62 KFFC 241930
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
330 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Current radar loop shows light showers increasing across the area as
they wrap around the back side of the exiting low pressure system.
Currently the main low center is right along the GA/SC border and is
moving slowly NE. It will continue pushing into the Mid Atlantic states
through Wed morning pulling the lower ceilings and precip NE along
with it. Winds behind this system will also pick up wednesday
especially across NE GA with winds in the 10-15kt range gusting 20-
25kt Wed afternoon. Not expecting much in the way of precip Wed as
we will be in between systems with slightly drier air over the area.
The second wave which is currently developing over the central
plains will push into the MS river valley Wed afternoon/evening with
moisture and precip chances increasing across GA Wed night. The main
system does not move into western sections of the state until Thu
morning but should begin to see some showers and isolated
thunderstorms move into the area ahead of this next system. There is
very little instability over the area wed night so any thunderstorms
that do develop will stay below severe limits. Clouds will stay over
the area tonight so low temps will only dip mainly into the 50s.
High temps are expected to get up into the 70s across the area with
some 60s across the NE GA mountains.

01


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Only tweaks made to the long term forecast with this update. Models
are converging with respect to a shortwave trough expected to move
through the SE CONUS Thursday through Friday morning. More
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially for
northern GA with this system but it shouldn`t linger as much as
the last system has. Max Storm total QPF is expected to be
between 0.5-1" for northern portions of the forecast area, but
locally higher amounts will be possible. There are some
disagreements between model solutions regarding instability with
this next shortwave so conditions will need to be monitored going
forward.

Otherwise, near normal conditions are expected for the rest of the
long term period.

22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

Active wave train pattern continues through the fcst period with
the main focus on the strength and timing of two shortwaves. The
first is with pretty good model consensus/consistency on swinging
through the area for Thursday. Have raised pops to likely for most
of CWA and included slight chance thunder mention given some
progged elevated instability (also how sensitive the environment
can be given any cloud breaks and increasing solar angle for this
time of year). Low level shear is lacking though deep layer values
are marginal enough to where we will need to monitor any
strong/severe potential for more organized convection or enhanced
updrafts. Should not be as much of a flooding/heavy rain issue
given how progressive it looks to be.

Next wave could be a bit less in amplitude though guidance has
less agreement on how far south the piece of energy digs or if it
cuts off going into late Friday/early Saturday. Carried general
slight pops until more confidence is reached or moisture return
increases.

The weekend for now looks pleasant and ridge dominated. Temps
rebound to back above normal with even upper 70s for most areas
Sunday/Monday.

Baker


&&


.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Light showers across the area wrapping around the back side if the
exiting frontal system. These showers are expected to clear the
area by 00z. Ceilings are mainly in the MVFR to VFR range right
now and will continue to improve through the evening hours. Will
see lower ceilings move back in overnight but still only expecting
them in the MVFR range. Ceilings will lift again Wed
morning/afternoon back into the VFR range. VSBYs will only be an
issue this afternoon in and around any of the exiting showers
rotating across the area.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          53  73  52  70 /  10   0  30  70
Atlanta         54  70  54  67 /  10   0  30  70
Blairsville     50  64  47  62 /  30  10  40  70
Cartersville    52  69  51  65 /  20   5  40  70
Columbus        55  75  55  73 /   5   0  20  70
Gainesville     54  69  53  66 /  20   5  40  70
Macon           54  75  53  74 /   5   0  20  60
Rome            53  70  52  65 /  20   5  40  80
Peachtree City  53  71  52  69 /  10   0  30  70
Vidalia         58  76  58  78 /   5   0  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...01