Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 260405 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1105 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a weak cold front draped
from central MN into northwest IA on into eastern Nebraska. Weak
high pressure then resides over much of the northern-central
Plains over to the Rockies. Aloft, generally zonal flow prevails
over the northern tier states in advance of a sharp ridge axis
over the Rockies. A shortwave trough is shown over the Upper
Mississippi River Valley in the H5-H7 flow, which is aligned
where afternoon convection has popped. MUCAPEs along with other
convective indices are concentrated in higher values along the
MN/WI border and points eastward which is in conjunction with the
Svr Tstm Watch in effect into this evening. The surface cold
front, acting as little more than a wind/dewpoint boundary, will
make very little eastward progress tonight through tomorrow,
essentially nudging to just east of the MN/WI border down through
southeast MN and central IA. What this will do is push the
potential for thunderstorms off to the east, allowing for an
advertised dry day for tomorrow yet still with plenty of heat and
humidity. The difference will be the incoming ridge from the west
capping the atmosphere to prevent convection. While an isolated
thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out, coverage will be very
meager and not enough to warrant mention at this point. The main
issue for tomorrow will then be the heat. Highs will climb to the
low-mid 90s for much of the coverage area. With dewpoints from the
mid 50s to lower 60s, heat index values will also hit the low-mid
90s. So, even without the threat for thunderstorms, Saturday will
still remain hazardous due to the heat.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

A general break in the action from convection will continue Sunday
through Memorial Day, though there still may be some isolated
thunderstorm activity breaking out Monday evening into Monday
night. It is at this point where the upper ridge shows signs of
breaking down while a large meandering trough axis over the
western CONUS moves its way into the north-central states. This
upper low combined with weak surface convergence features near the
Upper Mississippi River Valley will combine to produce multiple
periods of scattered showers/thunderstorms for much of the mid-
to-late week portion of the forecast. Not going so far as to say
there may be strong to severe activity, especially with a cooling
trend and weak surface features at play. But, it will be an
unsettled pattern for much of the week.

Temperatures will start out around 20 degrees above normal for
Sunday and Memorial Day, with highs in the low-mid 90s. A cooling
trend will then commence through midweek as a cold front slowly
approaches from the northwest. Not looking for anything drastic as
highs will still solidly remain above normal, but will see highs
drop into the lower 80s by the end of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Clear skies are expected through the period. Light winds tonight,
becoming west 10 kts Saturday.

KMSP...No concerns.

SUN...VFR. Wind SW less than 5 kts.
MON...VFR. Slight chc TSRA late. Wind S 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts.




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