Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 230850

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
350 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The forecast remains on track for today and tonight. Early morning
IR imagery and surface obs showed clear skies and high pressure
across the Great Lakes, with weak anticyclonic surface winds over
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Monday will be similar to Sunday, with
plenty of sun and weak winds. Thermal fields are a bit warmer, so
expect highs about 5 to 7 degrees warmer for most locations.

Split flow with a northern stream upper level wave to the north, and
a Pacific shortwave trough to the south will push a surface cold
front through Minnesota and Wisconsin, with a slight chance of rain
showers along this boundary early Tuesday morning, mainly over
southwest Minnesota. For others the only noticeable difference in
weather will be overcast skies, northerly winds, and cooler
temperatures on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

As alluded too earlier, Tuesday will be mostly cloudy with northerly
winds in the wake of a cold front that will push through the region.
There is a chance for a stray rain shower, but it still appears that
the lack of forcing across the Upper Midwest will keep most
locations dry. High pressure will quickly follow for Wednesday, so
expect another day of light winds with highs near 60.

A more potent storm system will move across the region from Canada
and bring more widespread precipitation for Thursday. Most locations
should see at least some rain, but amounts will be pretty light,
generally less than 0.25 inches since the system is fairly
progressive and does not have a rich supply of moisture. Another
supporting factor for limited precipitation is the lack of CAPE, so
don`t anticipate any localized heavier rainfall amounts from
convection. Temperatures on Thursday are tricky since there will be
warming ahead of the cold front.

Looking ahead, the GFS/GEM/EMCWF 23.00 are quick to bring ridging
and adiabatically warmed air back across the region for the weekend
and early next week. Did increase temperatures a bit above the
blended guidance, but if this pattern holds true highs on Monday
should easily reach the mid 70s and even touch 80 out west. For now
took a more conservative approach in case the pattern changes, but a
significant warm up is certainly plausible for next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1011 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Weak ridge axis aloft, oriented NE-SW across NOAM from eastern
Canada into the Four Corners region, with exiting surface high
pressure will be the main features at play through tomorrow
evening. The ridge will keep a dry surface cold front off to the
west, helping maintain weak south to southwest winds tonight
through tomorrow. Only clouds through tomorrow afternoon look to
be FEW-SCT high cirrus clouds drifting over the area. Some mid-
level ceilings may try to develop in western-central MN after dark
tomorrow. Long story short, high confidence of VFR conditions
expected throughout this TAF set.

KMSP...No significant weather impacts expected.

Tue...VFR. Slight chc -SHRA. Wind NE 5-15 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind variable around 5 kts.
Thu...MVFR ceilings possible. Chc -RA. Wind SW 10-15 kts shifting
NW 10-20 kts.




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