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000
FXUS64 KOUN 281749
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Though chances remain low at this time, we are watching for the
potential of thunderstorm development this afternoon for areas
generally south of I-40 and east of I-35 from 1 PM through 6 PM.
The primary upper low pressure system that brought last night`s
severe weather still remains to our northwest (centered over
southwest Nebraska) with small vorticity lobes currently in the
vicinity of central Oklahoma and eastern New Mexico/TX panhandle.

This could provide sufficient dynamic ascent within this area
this afternoon for storm development, should the atmosphere be
able to recover from last night. There is a trend of some
atmospheric recovery to our south, and given the 12Z model output,
there is some concern that storm development could impact teams
that are currently assisting with search and rescue and post-
event clean up. Guidance indicates moderate instability is
possible with plenty of 0-6 bulk shear which could mainly lead to
large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Again, confidence in severe development in this area is very low.
hHowever, the environment may be there if recovery can be
achieved.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

MCS and lingering line of storms will continue to affect portions
of southeast Oklahoma today. This will include a severe and
flooding risk to go along with it. Most of the activity should
shift east of the area during the afternoon hours. Will keep a
portion of the flood watch for this area into the afternoon hours
and will drop counties farther west from the watch. The remainder
of the area will get a respite after a long day and night of
severe weather.

Otherwise, lighter winds, mild temperatures and clearing skies will
make for a more tranquil day today across much of western and central
sections of the area.

Slightly drier air, clear skies and lighter winds will allow
temperatures tonight to drop into the 40s and 50s across much of
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Quiet weather expected Monday in the wake of the weekend storm
system. South winds return in earnest by Tuesday as surface pressure
gradient tightens in response to shortwave trough moving through the
northern Plains. The lower level winds will be veered bringing in
much warmer air from the west with temperatures climbing to 80s and
low/mid 90s.

Southwest flow returns by midweek and a southern stream trough may
bring an increasing chance of storms. Sufficient instability will be
present for a few severe storms to be possible.

A strong cold front still appears on track to move through late
Thursday into Friday which should bring a cooler, drier airmass into
the area for at least the first part of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Rain has moved east of most of our sites, outside of KDUA, but IFR
ceilings will remain at several of our central and southern sites
through mid morning. Clearing is then expected with VFR
conditions and relatively light winds through the rest of the
day and tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  54  80  61 /  20   0  10   0
Hobart OK         79  51  82  60 /   0   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  81  55  83  63 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           76  45  82  57 /  10   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     79  48  78  57 /  40   0   0  10
Durant OK         78  60  82  60 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...08