Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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944 FXUS64 KOUN 122327 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 627 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 One round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a mid- level jet streak embedded in the subtropical jet continues to move to the east this afternoon across southern into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also developing in the wake of this complex across northwest into west central Oklahoma in association with an approaching mid/upper-level low. Effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots and elevated instability of ~500 to 1000 J/kg will favor hail with the most intense thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms will continue develop tonight as a mid/upper-level low moves eastward across Kansas in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. The potential hazards are hail and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flooding. The most likely area the receive the heaviest rainfall overnight is across the northern half of Oklahoma. HREF guidance indicates that isolated locations may see 2" of rainfall or more (using the ensemble maximum as a proxy for locally higher amounts). By tomorrow morning, a northwest wind shift will advance to the southeast as the upper-level moves eastward. Any ongoing thunderstorms would move southward into central into east central Oklahoma with the wind shift. Eventually, the chance of storms will move into southeast Oklahoma by Monday afternoon as the wind shift continues to advance to the southeast. Instability and shear will remain favorable for low-end severe potential, which will include the potential for hail and gusty winds. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 By Tuesday, mid-level heights will rise as the mid/upper-level low moves toward the Midwest. Dry conditions are expected across Oklahoma and north Texas. By late Wednesday into Thursday, another trough will approach the Southern Plains with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The system has trended slower, so the chance for rain will persist through at least Friday morning. While vertical wind shear appears sufficient for severe weather, the amount of instability remains uncertain as widespread convection may temper its magnitude. Heavy rainfall/localized flooding may also be a hazard given the slow exit of the system. Mahale && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Another evening of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and areas of MVFR and locally IFR ceilings. There will be some variability with ceilings and visibilities this evening, but the general trend will be toward lowering clouds and increasing BR expected. We will start seeing ceilings lift after sunrise Monday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 72 60 77 56 / 80 80 40 10 Hobart OK 69 58 79 53 / 90 50 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 70 62 82 56 / 90 40 20 0 Gage OK 69 51 76 48 / 90 70 20 0 Ponca City OK 76 59 74 55 / 60 90 60 20 Durant OK 73 63 82 59 / 80 50 40 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...26