872
FXUS64 KOUN 140328
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1028 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A mid/upper-level low in Kansas will continue to slowly move
eastward toward the Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop on the trailing wind shift across east central
into southeast Oklahoma. A few widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms will also occur across across north central into
central Oklahoma in association with the upper-level low itself.
The convection should exit by early evening.

For Tuesday, mid-level heights will rise as the mid/upper-level
low moves toward the Midwest. Dry and warmer conditions are
expected with abundant sunshine.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

By Wednesday, a quasi-stationary boundary is forecast to be
located somewhere across northern Oklahoma as a shortwave trough
lifts into the Plains. The location of this boundary may depend on
earlier convection in Kansas (i.e., reinforced by outflow). Low-
level moisture pooling and low-level coverage along this boundary
appears sufficient for convective initiation for showers and
thunderstorms. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.

On Thursday, a more substantial shortwave through will approach
the Southern Plains. If there is sufficient recovery Thursday
afternoon from the previous night`s convection (and depending on
the location of the effective cold front), strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible again on Thursday. In addition to
severe weather, heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding will be
another potential hazard (especially if heavy rainfall occurs on
Wednesday). The trough will be slow to exit with at least a low
chance of rain continuing into Friday.

By the weekend, a ~595 dam mid-level ridge is progged to develop
across Mexico with the Southern Plains on the northern periphery
of the ridge. Temperatures should gradually rise with mid 80s to
mid 90s deg F likely as the low-level thermal ridge expands to the
north and east. There will also be a continued low chance of
showers and thunderstorms with the area near the periphery of the
stronger mid-level flow.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Mostly clear skies are expected now with light winds, generally
from the northwest overnight. There is some potential for fog in
southeast Oklahoma, including KDUA, but the probability currently
looks too low to mention. Winds in the west will become southerly
during the day tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  80  59  87 /  10   0   0  20
Hobart OK         53  84  60  89 /   0   0  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  56  84  61  90 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           49  84  57  88 /   0   0  10  30
Ponca City OK     54  79  56  84 /  20   0  10  30
Durant OK         59  82  59  88 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26