Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
631 FXUS64 KOUN 102326 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 626 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Mild and dry conditions with relatively light winds have led to a very pleasant afternoon out there with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Wind will decrease further overnight as surface high pressure moves overhead. Return flow will commence on Saturday as the high moves eastward and winds become southerly. To our west, a closed low will move slowly eastward from the 4 corners region, with precipitation expected to increase during the day across west Texas into the panhandles. Rain could enter our area as early as late morning across western north Texas, with better chances arriving during the afternoon and evening, spreading northeastward as a lead wave moves out ahead of the main trough. Severe weather is not anticipated on Saturday as instability will remain very weak. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Warm advection will increase over the area on Sunday, with more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity expected during the day into Sunday night. At least some instability is likely to develop, highest across our southern/southwest counties, which will lead to a marginal risk for severe hail in these areas. Isolated flooding will also be a possibility for locations that see training thunderstorms, though widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated. Rain chances will be on the decrease and shift eastward during the day on Monday as the upper low exits the region. Another trough is expected to quickly approach in its wake, with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. At least some severe potential exists with this system, though the magnitude and location of severe weather will likely depend on moisture return and wave timing, which is uncertain at this time. Ware && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected with only some mid or high level clouds moving over the area. Winds have become or will soon become light. In most areas, the wind will gradually shift from a generally north light wind to a generally south light wind through the forecast period, but there is enough variability expected that we will keep the wind direction as variable at least overnight. On Saturday afternoon, the wind at some of the western sites will increase from the south or southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 56 80 58 72 / 0 10 20 60 Hobart OK 56 79 56 70 / 0 10 40 80 Wichita Falls TX 58 77 58 71 / 10 20 30 80 Gage OK 51 80 54 72 / 0 20 60 80 Ponca City OK 53 82 58 76 / 0 0 10 50 Durant OK 57 81 60 74 / 0 10 10 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...26