Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192100
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
500 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push out to sea tonight. High pressure will
build into and over the region late tonight into Sunday. Low
pressure will track from the Gulf Coast States northeast up
along the East Coast late Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 410 PM EDT Thursday...

Late this aftn, a cold front was moving SE of the NE NC coast,
while sfc high pressure was cntrd over the upper midwest. The
cold front will push out to sea tonight, while high pressure
starts to build twd the area fm the NNW. Gusty NW or N winds
will diminish during this evening/early tonight, and the sky
will become clear. Should be too dry for frost, but temps are
expected to bottom out near 32F over portions of the Piedmont,
as winds become light in those areas. Therefore, will have a
Freeze warning for NW counties. Low temps will be in the
mid to upper 30s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 410 PM EDT Thursday...

Dry/cool wx will prevail on Fri, as low pressure slowly exits
into the nrn Atlc, and high pressure gradually builds in fm the
NNW. Still hanging on to a breezy NNW wind near the coast. Sunny
with highs ranging fm the mid 50s to lower 60s. Dry wx
continues Fri night thru Sun, as sfc high pressure builds down
over the region. Clear and cold Fri night with lows ranging fm
the mid 30s to arnd 40. Sunny or mostly sunny on Sat with N or
NE winds 10 kt or less, and highs ranging fm the upper 50s/near
60 at the coast, to the lower to mid 60s inland/Piedmont.

Mostly clear to partly cloudy and not as cold Sat night, with
lows mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Partly sunny on Sun
with highs mainly ranging thru the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 500 PM EDT Wednesday...

The medium range period will begin with a slow moving upper low
tracking east from the lower MS Valley to the TN Valley Sun
night through early Tue. Upper ridging will be in place across
the mid-Atlc through mon night with strong sfc high pressure
centered over the NE CONUS, ridging south to off the Delmarva.
While some mid/high clouds may affect the local area Sun
night/Mon, conditions should remain dry with the possible
exception of the far SW counties where a 20% PoP will be
maintained Mon aftn/Mon evening. Expect below average
temperatures with lows Sun night ranging from the upper 30s to
mid 40s and highs Mon 60-65 F most places.

By Tue, consensus between the 19/12Z models is for the upper low
to slowly weaken to an open wave while moving into the SE
CONUS/southern Appalachians. Sfc low pressure along the Gulf
coast is progged to move NE up through the SE coastal plain
while sfc high pressure retreats well off the NE/mid-Atlc
coasts. Still some model timing and strength differences so
with the uncertainty, kept PoPs around 40% to 50% for the bulk
of the CWA, genly highest Tue and Tue night. Mainly cloudy so
not as cold Mon night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s and
highs Tue mid 60s SE to around 60 NW (potentially could be
cooler than this if it rains all day). Will keep 30-40% chance
showers Wed and 20% thu as the eventual evolution of the sfc low
shows quite a bit of disagreement amongst the models by this
timeframe. Partly/mostly cloudy Wed and thu with highs warming a
bit to 65-70 F and lows mainly 50-55 F.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Cold front was pushing
just off the NE NC coast by 300 pm this aftn. SCT to BKN SC and
AC were along the front, and behind the front with the cooler
air aloft. WNW winds were 10-20 kt with gusts up to 30-35 kt
this aftn. SCT to BKN SC and AC will move off the coast or
dissipate early this evening, leaving SKC at the TAF sites for
late this evening into Fri aftn. NNW winds will diminish during
this evening/early tonight, as high pressure starts to build in
fm the NNW.

Outlook: VFR conditions will then continue late Fri aftn through
Sun, as high pressure builds down over the region. NNW winds
arnd 10 kt or less (10-15 kt at the coast) on Fri, then N to NE
10 kt or less on Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Latest weather analysis reveals low pressure now oriented just
offshore of the Outer Banks at 18z. The attendant surface cold
front now offshore, extending south into the coastal Carolinas.
Obs and buoy reports indicating post-frontal surge of NNW winds
just pushing across northern portions of the waters this
afternoon. Convective gusts to ~40 kt possible with initial
surge, quickly leveling off to WNW 15-25kt in post-frontal CAA.
Winds then become NW 15-25kt tonight, with gusts up to 30kt for
the Bay/ocean. Seas build to 4-6ft later this aftn into tonight,
while waves in the Bay remain ~2ft this afternoon, increasing
to 3-4ft tonight.

Current SCA flags will remain as is, but there will be a few
hours of sub- SCA conditions across the southern waters this
afternoon before CAA makes it farther south. High pressure
builds in from the NW Friday into Friday night. A secondary
surge is expected Friday night, but this surge should generally
be sub- SCA. High pressure will build over the region Saturday
and Sunday resulting in benign marine conditions. High pressure
pushes off the Srn New England coast early next week as low
pressure pushes off the Southeast coast. This will result in
increasing onshore flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 445 PM EDT Thursday...

Due to onshore N to NE flow along the coast of SE VA, have
removed Norfolk/Va Beach and the VA eastern shore from the Fire
Danger Statement (RH values are genly 40-60% with temperatures
only in the 50s). Elsewhere, NW winds will gust to 25-35 mph
into early this evening behind a cold front along with RH Values
to 25-35%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for VAZ048-060>062-
     064-067>069-509>511.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...MAS/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM
FIRE WEATHER...LKB



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