Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 202345
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
745 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge in from the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes Region with cooler and drier weather tonight.  The
surface high will yield a sunny and pleasant start to the week with
temperatures slightly above normal.  Clouds will increase from the
south and west Monday night, as a low pressure system and a warm
front brings rain back into the region for Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 745 PM EDT...Cold front has pushed south of the region,
with showers ending as well. Just some leftover clouds mainly
in higher terrain areas this evening in the cold advection
regime. Winds have shifted to the northwest and dewpoints are
lowering, but there is enough residual low level moisture to
produce clouds over the higher terrain.

The cold advection will continue tonight with H850 temps falling
to +6C to +8C from the Capital Region and the Berkshires north
and west and +8C to +10C south and east. Brisk northwest winds
will become light to calm well after midnight with the sfc
anticyclone over the western-central Great Lakes Region ridging
in. Lows will fall back into the 40s with some lower 50s over NW
CT, and the Capital District south down the Hudson Valley. Some
upper 30s with patchy frost is possible over the Adirondack
Park.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow...A gorgeous start to the week is expected with the sfc
anticyclone building in over NY and New England with
sunny/mostly sunny skies due to strong subsidence. Northwest
winds will be light at 10 mph or less. 925 hPa temps warm to
+15C to +19C. Decent mixing should allow temps to rise 5 to 7
degrees above normal with highs in the mid and upper 70s in the
lower elevations with a few 80F readings in the mid-Hudson
Valley, and mid 60s to lower 70s over the mtns.

Monday night...The mid and upper level flow becomes nearly zonal
as a short-wave and low pressure system tracks toward the region
from the Midwest. A warm front extending east of the system
begins to lift north and east, as low-level warm advection
commences overnight. Mid and high clouds will increase, as the
sfc high shifts down stream. Some showers may get close to
locations west of the Hudson River Valley towards sunrise. Lows
will be mainly in the 50s with some upper 40s over the southern
Dacks.

Tue-Tue night...A gray an unsettled stretch of the forecast with
isentropic lift increasing north and east of a warm front, and
one or two low pressure system wobbling along the boundary. Rain
or intermittent showers over spread the forecast area during
the morning into the afternoon. The isentropic lift increases on
the 300K sfc for the thermal advection showers. There should be
some elevated instability ahead of the wave with the NAM/GFS
indicating Showalter Indices of 0C to -3C with some MUCAPE. We
added a slight chc of thunderstorms everywhere in the afternoon.
It will be cool in the rain with highs in the upper 50s and
60s.

The showers continue into the evening with the sfc wave or wave
sailing over or just south of most the region /positioning
varies in the guidance/. QPF amounts are variable from the short
range guidance, but a half an inch to an inch is possible with
locally higher amounts in any elevated embedded convection. Lows
will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s over the forecast
area. The showers should be ending after midnight with the wave
and frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term period will feature generally dry weather and above
normal warmth through the second half of the work week before rain
returns for Memorial Day weekend.

An upper level shortwave trough will slide southeast across New
England on Wednesday-Wednesday night. This will allow for a surface
cold front to slide through the region from west to east, although
this front will be fairly moisture starved and mainly characterized
by a wind shift. Still cannot totally rule out a few showers so
included a slight chance on Wednesday. Outside of a slight chance
for showers, the day should be mostly dry with afternoon highs
reaching the mid to upper 70s. Wednesday night, temperatures will
fall into the low 50s, with upper 40s in the high terrain.

With a northwest flow in place both at the surface and aloft, it
will be continued dry for Thursday, and temps will be a few degrees
cooler, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Dry weather should
continue into Friday as surface high pressure remains near the area
with temps a few degrees warmer (near 80 degrees).

High pressure will slide east of the region by the weekend, putting
us into a south to southwest flow regime. This will increase low
level moisture and bring a return of rain chances during Memorial
day weekend as a northern stream upper level shortwave approaches
and eventually crosses the region. Saturday should remain mainly
dry, as the best forcing with the trough remains further west over
the western Great Lakes. Though, as this forcing moves closer, rain
chances will increase with rain looking likely by Sunday-Sunday
night, continuing into Monday. There is also potential for a
tropical moisture connection with this rainfall, but remains fairly
uncertain at this time how these features will interact. Afternoon
highs will gradually cool throughout the holiday weekend, with highs
on Saturday in the upper 70s and overnight lows near 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front has pushed south of the region this evening. Mainly
SCT clouds around 5 kft with VFR conditions in place at
KALB/KPOU/KGFL, although MVFR cigs are affecting KPSF in the
northwest flow behind the cold front. Even these clouds will
tend to dissipate by later this evening as high pressure builds
in from the west. There could be some radiational fog late at
KGFL/KPSF, but confidence is low so will only mention MVFR vsby
between 08Z-11Z for now. VFR conditions with mainly clear skies
expected for much of Monday.

Winds will initially be northwest around 5-10 kt this evening,
becoming less than 5 kt after midnight. Winds on Monday will
generally be from the west-northwest around 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Wednesday Night to Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will ridge in from the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes Region with cooler and drier weather tonight.  The
surface high will yield a sunny and pleasant start to the week with
temperatures slightly above normal.  Clouds will increase from the
south and west Monday night, as rain moves back in for Tuesday.

The RH values will increase to 80 to 100 percent Monday morning
with some dew formation. The RH values will lower to 25 to 40
percent Monday afternoon, then increase to 70 to 90 percent
Tuesday morning with rain moving in.

West to northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph will diminish tonight to
light to calm. Northwest winds will be 5 to 10 mph on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrological impacts are expected the next 5 days
ending Friday.

High pressure will bring dry weather to region tonight through
most of Monday night. Rivers will recede from the weekend
rainfall.

A low pressure system and a warm front will bring another
period of rainfall Tuesday into early Wednesday with basin
averages of a half inch to an inch with some locally higher
amounts from thunderstorms.

Dry weather returns for the end of the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/Wasula
NEAR TERM...JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Frugis/JVM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...BGM/Wasula


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