Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 220037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
837 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Shower coverage will be on the increase tonight along the east
coast metro region, affecting the local TAF sites. Thus, have
added VCSH to many of these sites to account for this. Bases of
the cloud deck should be between 2000-2500 ft msl. Easterly winds
are forecast around 10 KT through early Sunday morning,
increasing to 13 to 15 KT out of the east southeast aft 22/1400Z.
VCSH conds will likely persist on Sunday over the majority of the
peninsula, especially during the afternoon. An isolated lightning
strike or two can not be ruled out.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 733 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018/

A few showers were observed on radar developing over the offshore
Atlantic waters early this evening, while cloud cover continues to
gradually increase over South Florida ahead of an approaching
front. Scattered showers are expected to develop overnight, and
the potential for an isolated thunderstorm can not be discarded.
Current forecast package looks good and only minor updates will be
made to incorporate current temperature trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 416 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018/

Short term (tonight-Monday night)...a frontal, decaying boundary
remains stalled over the central portions of the Florida
peninsula, keeping a warm and moist airmass over south Florida
tonight and Sunday. Meanwhile, models show a mid level trough/low
complex developing over the central states and pushing an
associated cold front towards Florida. This synoptic scenario will
translate in increasing chances of showers for tonight and into
Sunday, including slight chances of thunderstorms. Rain coverage
increases late Sunday into Monday as the stalled remnant boundary
over central Florida interacts with the approaching front and its
parent trough/low complex. Although widespread heavy rain is not
anticipated, isolated downpours are certainly possible.

Models continue to show the higher chances for thunderstorm
activity Monday afternoon, especially over interior portions of
South Florida as overall flow veers southerly ahead of the
incoming front. High-end pops are being carried in the latest
forecast package with up to 80-90 POPS over interior areas around
Lake Okeechobee. And although it is possible for a few storms to
become strong or even severe, latest model solutions remain
conservative regarding upper level dynamic support for severe
weather. But the situation will continue to be closely monitored
as new model guidance become available.

Long term (Tuesday-Friday)...a mid level trough/low complex
migrates into the south eastern states and pushing its associated
frontal boundary further south and into the area by Tuesday. This
will further veer winds to the SW, moving the higher chances for
showers and storms into the Atlantic metro areas. Once the front
clears South Florida, drier air will filter from the northwest
briefly, bringing a pause to the rainy pattern Wednesday and
Thursday. No significant impacts in temperatures are expected from
this FROPA.

Long range model solutions a couple of energy impulses quickly
evolving over the US and pushing cold fronts into Florida Thursday
and Friday. However, timing and potential impacts of these systems
remain uncertain as there is still plenty of time for significant
model adjustments. Therefore, will keep inherited long range
forecast of mainly prevailing dry conditions across the area for
the end of the period and wait for upcoming guidance before making
any significant changes.

An slowly retreating northerly swell, combined with gusty easterly
winds will keep hazardous seas over the Atlantic waters tonight.
Elevated winds and seas will linger into early next week as the
next cold front pushes through the area. Conditions will gradually
improve by midweek.

An elevated swell and persistent easterly flow will create an
elevated risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches through
this weekend. The Palm Beaches will have a high risk for rip
current through the rest of weekend, and possibly into early next
week. The Miami-Dade and Broward beaches may also see deteriorating
conditions starting Sunday. Rip Current Statement for the Palm
Beaches is now in effect through Sunday.


West Palm Beach  71  81  71  82 /  50  50  50  60
Fort Lauderdale  74  81  73  82 /  50  40  50  60
Miami            73  83  73  83 /  40  40  40  50
Naples           69  84  70  84 /  20  40  30  40


FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-


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