414
FXUS64 KMOB 080358
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1058 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

MVFR ceilings will become more widespread across the area tonight
with local reductions to IFR ceilings as low clouds and light,
patchy fog develops. Ceilings are expected to gradually rise back
to VFR for most areas by Wednesday afternoon. Southerly winds
prevail through the period with occasional gusts to around 20
knots on Wednesday. /14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 649 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

MVFR ceilings will become more widespread across the area tonight
with local reductions to IFR ceilings as low clouds and light,
patchy fog develops. Ceilings are expected to gradually rise back
to VFR by Wednesday afternoon. Southerly winds prevail through the
period with occasional gusts to around 20 knots on Wednesday. /14

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

An upper level ridge from the Gulf into the southeast states will
slowly translate eastward through Wednesday. At the surface, a
persistent high pressure system over the western Atlantic
maintains southerly flow across our area, keeping us in a summer-
like pattern. Despite plenty of moisture, the lack of a forcing
mechanism along with the subsidence from the ridging aloft will
keep rain chances very isolated on Wednesday with the highest
chances (~20%) across far inland areas. Temperatures will be even
warmer on Wednesday with the increased subsidence lower rain
coverage. Highs will climb to around 90 across inland areas to mid
80s near the coast. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and low
70s inland to low to mid 70s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Through the Short Term, upper level high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will bring zonal flow to the Southeast. Several rounds of
shortwaves move either through this zonal flow, or through an upper
trough over the northeastern quarter of the Conus. The biggest
concern in the Short Term is a shortwave system passing over the
forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning(more below). A cold
front that has moved to northern portions of the Southeast shifts
south to over the northern Gulf of Mexico behind the passing
shortwave system Friday into Friday night before stalling over the
northern Gulf by Saturday morning.

Taking a closer look at the shortwave system passing
Thursday/Thursday night, there is a possiblity of strong to severe
storm. Looking at the ingredients, good instability is present, with
guidance advertising SBCapes averaging around 2500-3000J/kg Thursday
afternoon. There is a decrease overnight, but SBCapes average around
2000J/kg overnight. Good, mainly linear wind shear is present, with
guidance advertising EBWD shear values averaging 50-60kts, though
helicities are marginal, with 0-1km helicities under 100m^2/s^2. Mid
level lapse rates average between 7.5C and 8C per km. Guidance is
also advertising a quick passage of upper level divergence Thursday
night as an upper jet moves through, with the current timing
averaging placing this divergence over the forecast area around
06z/1am. All in all, the forecast is shaping up for a squall line to
organize west or northwest of the forecast area Thursday afternoon,
then pass over the forecast area between 8pm and 4am. Damaging
winds, look to be the primary threat. Hail is secondary, though with
the relatively quick passage of the system, limited time aloft may
temper size. Also, the relatively quick passage of the line is
expected to limit rainfall amounts over most of the area. There is a
small possibility of overrunning convection on the front as it sags
south behind the main system. At this time, guidance is focusing the
highest rainfall amounts just north of the forecast area. With the
growing season in full effect and 1hr FFG values above 3", am not
expecting water issues other than ponding in poor drainage areas.

Not to forget, temperatures above seasonal norms ahead of the front
see a drop to around to a bit below behind. High temperatures in the
mid 80s to around 90 Thursday drop into the around 80 to mid 80s for
Friday. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s Wednesday night drop
into the mid 50s to around 60 Friday night.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Another passing shortwave system will bring rain to the forecast
area Monday into Tuesday. Enough instability will be present for
rumbles, but guidance is meh with enough for strong to severe
storms at this time. Temperatures remain at or below seasonal
norms through the period.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A moderate onshore flow will persist through much of
the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours
near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze
circulation. A front moves through the marine zones on Friday,
allowing for a light to moderate offshore wind to return for Friday
and into Saturday. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  89  74  88  69  84  59  82 /   0   0   0  20  60  40   0   0
Pensacola   74  85  76  86  72  83  62  81 /  10  10   0  20  50  60   0   0
Destin      75  84  76  84  74  82  64  80 /   0  10   0  20  40  60   0   0
Evergreen   69  90  71  89  66  81  54  80 /   0  10  10  60  70  50   0   0
Waynesboro  70  91  71  90  65  81  53  80 /   0  10  10  50  70  20   0   0
Camden      69  90  71  88  65  79  53  78 /   0  20  10  70  70  30   0   0
Crestview   69  89  71  89  68  83  55  82 /   0  10   0  40  50  60   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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