940
FXUS64 KSJT 310824
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
324 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Main focus continues to be the QLCS moving southeast across the
area early this morning. It has behaved itself lately and stayed
below severe levels but is still being closely monitored. Most of
this should move southeast and out of the area by sunrise. CAMs do
show more convection developing before sunrise across the South
Plains and Panhandle and tracking into West Central Texas to start
the morning off. Given how worked over the airmass is across the
area, a little dubious that the redevelopment will be quite as
widespread as some of the models indicate. Will continue to carry
POPs but will try to limit them to something less than "likely".

As for the afternoon and evening, should see some sun and a chance
for the atmosphere to destabilize once again, at least somewhat.
Hard to tell at this point how quickly the air mass will recover,
and where any leftover outflow boundaries will end up. Will carry
a mention of storms into the afternoon and evening, although
focused a little more on the eastern portions of the area where
the CAMs are a little more aggressive.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A little more typical June set up for the weekend across the area,
with a warm and unstable air mass remaining across the area. CAP
will be a little stronger, shear a little less, and boundaries
not quite as well defined as they have been the last few weeks.
Some mainly diurnal showers and storms will be possible into
Monday before a little drier regime takes over as the upper level
ridge begins to take over. This upper ridging helps boost
temperatures as well and not going to argue much with the model
blends showing afternoon highs in the 100 to 105 range across the
area by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A complex of thunderstorms, extending from east of Clyde to
northern Concho County to just north of San Angelo at 1250 AM,
will move quickly southeast across the Heartland and parts of the
Northwest Hill Country overnight. Strong winds on the leading
outflow have reached KSJT, and will affect the KBBD terminal around
7Z to 730Z. Expect visibility and ceiling reductions at KBBD in the
heavy rain accompanying this complex of storms. Anticipate that
the KJCT site will mainly have just wind gusts with the associated
rainfall occurring north and northeast of the site. Outside of
the convective activity, should have some low cloud development
and expansion late tonight into mid-morning Friday with MVFR
ceilings. Mainly southeast winds will prevail outside of the
influence of convective activity. While additional thunderstorms
could occur Friday into Friday night, low confidence in placement
precludes a mention at our TAF sites at this time. Anticipate
updates with the TAFs as convective trends become more clear.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     81  66  86  68 /  50  10  20  30
San Angelo  87  69  92  69 /  30  10  20  30
Junction    91  71  95  73 /  30  10  10  20
Brownwood   81  67  85  70 /  50  20  20  20
Sweetwater  82  67  87  68 /  50  10  30  30
Ozona       90  70  92  70 /  20  10  20  30
Brady       82  69  86  70 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19