286
FXUS64 KSJT 100740
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
240 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The cold front has moved through the area tonight, leaving west
central Texas in a much cooler air mass. Highs were as warm as 100
degrees at San Angelo and Junction yesterday, while today we`re
looking for highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Low clouds are
currently affecting much of the area, especially south of I-20.
Expect cloud cover to generally persist across the entire forecast
through Friday night.

More pressing, we may see isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms south of Interstate 20 late this morning into the
afternoon hours. While most of this activity will not be severe, a
few storms could strengthen enough to produce marginally severe
hail of up to an inch, or gusty winds approaching 60 mph.

Tonight, expect storms to end by around 7 or 8 PM, leaving the
area under mainly cloud skies, and continued east to northeast
winds. Lows should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Cooler temperatures this weekend with an unsettled pattern.

An upper low will be over the Nevada/Arizona border Friday night,
and will move over the Four Corners area by Saturday evening. The
low is progged to move across the western half of Kansas Sunday
night, with a trough extending south across our area. An embedded
disturbance or two will be moving over our area ahead of this
system. With this setup and increased lift/moisture in our area,
we have medium to high PoPs (40-80 percent) for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday.

Rain chances should largely dwindle Monday with a weak cold
frontal passage, and as the aforementioned trough shifts east of
our area. Less cloud cover and a return to southerly winds will
result in warmer temperatures Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Our area will have another chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, when an upper
trough is progged to move into the southern Plains. The details
are more uncertain that far out, however. After highs in the upper
80s and lower 90s Wednesday, temperatures may be a little cooler
Thursday in the wake of a cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

MVFR ceilings in the 1500 to 2500 foot range are affecting all
sites south of KABI late tonight. Expect these low clouds to
persist through 12Z this morning, with ceilings then rising to VFR
heights by 18Z Friday, and expected to remain VFR through the rest
of the TAF period. There may also be a few SHRA and TSRA that
could affect areas south of KSJT and KBBD that develop by late
morning or early afternoon. Have introduced some VCTS`s and PROB30
groups to address this potential for Friday afternoon. Winds
should remain east/northeast through the period with a few gusts
to around 20 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     78  60  71  58 /  10  20  60  50
San Angelo  79  60  74  62 /  30  20  80  50
Junction    83  62  81  65 /  20  20  50  50
Brownwood   78  60  73  61 /  10  10  50  50
Sweetwater  78  60  69  58 /  10  20  80  50
Ozona       77  62  74  63 /  40  30  70  60
Brady       78  61  74  62 /  20  10  60  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...20