Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 241043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
543 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018



MVFR ceilings ongoing this morning at KMLC and expected to last
through mid morning should be the only sub-VFR conditions to
prevail through the period. Other existing ceilings at
KFYV/KXNA/KROG/KFSM should remain VFR before scattering mid to
late morning. Nonzero chance that IFR ceilings currently in parts
of Kansas could move into BVO later this morning, but chance is
not high enough to mention at this time. Winds will shift to the
northwest through the day and become gusty behind a cold frontal
passage. Gustiness will drop off early evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 319 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/

Breezy and mild conditions prevail this morning ahead of a cold
front that stretches across northwest OK into the TX panhandle.
This boundary will work its way across the forecast area today,
although there will be ample time for temps to warm well into the
70s before the front passes. Could see some spotty showers across
far eastern OK/western AR, although chances/coverage appear too
slim to mention at this time.

The front is expected to stall near the Red River tonight, and
then begin to lift north as a warm front Sunday. A strengthening
low-level jet/isentropic lift will result in increasing chances of
showers and a few storms Sunday into Sunday night, along with a
low chance of a few severe storms (with hail being the main
concern). The severe weather threat will extend into Monday as the
cold front/dryline combo becomes convectively active across OK
later in the day.

Deepening southwesterly flow aloft will slow the eastward progress
of the frontal boundary, with an extended period of heavy rain
setting up from Monday night through mid-week. The 00Z GFS is a
bit more progressive than its run 24 hours ago, and the latest
ECMWF remains a bit slower than the GFS. Still too earlier to get
terribly cute with PoPs/QPF, and will follow a blended approach at
this time. That said, its still looking like a good 2-4 inches of
rain across a large portion of southeastern OK into western AR,
with locally higher amounts possible. The axis of heavy rainfall
should be exiting east of the region by early Wednesday as the
main upper trof begins to eject out of the 4-corners area.

Another cold front should move through by Thursday, bringing low
chances of rain and slightly cooler weather.




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