Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS01 KWNS 171251
SWODY1
SPC AC 171249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of wind or hail are expected across
parts of the Mid Atlantic this afternoon, and across the central and
southern High Plains from late afternoon through evening.

...Central High Plains...
No appreciable change to previous forecast.

A weak surface cyclone will remain anchored across southeast CO with
an inverted trough/developing front extending northeast into central
NE. Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon across
the southern Rockies and late afternoon or evening eastward along
the trough/front. Moderate buoyancy and 20-30 kt effective shear
should foster predominantly multicell clusters capable of mainly
severe hail and strong wind gusts. The threat will be spatially
confined by a dearth of instability over western KS.

...Southern High Plains...
No appreciable change to previous forecast.

Richer boundary-layer moisture characterized by 60s surface dew
points will remain confined from the Permian Basin southeastward.
This will promote large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) here at
peak heating, with more moderate values farther north. Mid-level
wind profiles will be modest with 500-mb westerlies generally only
between 15-25 kt. Scattered storms should develop over the higher
terrain and spread gradually eastward this evening offering a mix of
isolated to perhaps scattered severe hail/wind. The threat will be
spatially confined by a dearth of instability over the eastern
Panhandles.

...Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the OH and Lower MS Valleys...
Primary change is to expand Marginal Risk west across the OH Valley
and southwest to the Lower MS Valley.

A broad swath of 25-40 kt 500-mb west/southwest flow will exist
downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough that should dampen as
it tracks from the Ozarks to the Lower OH Valley through early
Tuesday. This should aid in the formation of numerous multicells
this afternoon into early evening. Weak mid/upper-level rates will
be a limiting factor, suggesting locally damaging winds and
marginally severe hail should be the primary hazards. The Lower
Mid-Atlantic region still appears to have the best relative
potential for a few cells to acquire mid-level updraft rotation.
Thus, will maintain the comparatively greater risk here.

..Grams/Dial.. 06/17/2019

$$


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