Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 210555

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1255 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Issued at 415 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Water vapor imagery this aftn indicates a strong closed low invof
the 4-corners region with strong diffluent flow to NE across the
High Plains. Shortwave ridging is exiting the area to the east.
Radar indicates scattered light echoes across the western third or
so of the CWA, but sfc obs suggest little if any of this is
currently reaching the ground. We`ve had a few sprinkles here at
the office. Lightning has been detected in weak elevated
convection off to our south/west, but this is expected to remain
outside of our CWA.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Rest of today into tonight: A fairly extensive area of rain has
developed off to our W, and this is expected to gradually shift
eastward this eve and overnight as the center of upper low
pressure migrates from the 4-corners region into the central
Rockies. The combination of falling heights, strong diffluence,
and incr mid-level moisture should allow this rain activity to
move into the western CWA around 00z, central around 03z, and
eastern areas around 06z. Breezy SE winds this aftn should weaken
and turn easterly overnight as a sfc low organizes well south of
the area, across the southern high plains.

Saturday: The theme for the day will be cool, damp and raw. Rain
should be most prevalent in the morning with a gradual decr trend
expected for the aftn hrs as the upper low weakens and the sfc low
tracks across the southern plains. Saturday will not be a
continuous rain that everyone sees for the majority of the day,
but even areas not seeing rain will still see gloomy conditions
due to abundant low clouds and a cool E wind. Needless to say, not
a great day for any outdoor activities...but hey, at least its not
snow! Generally speaking, the highest rain chances and amounts
from this system will be across the western and southern portions
of the CWA where amounts should range 0.25-0.50". Northeast
portions of the CWA likely see less than a tenth. Have highs
ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s and even this may be a bit
optimistic given aforementioned conditions. Lt rain will linger
longest across KS zones and far SE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

These periods will feature fluctuating temperatures and at least
one or two chances for precipitation. Overall, though, no
significant weather is expected.

Lingering light showers should finally exit the area Saturday
evening, leaving dry conditions for the rest of the weekend. Lows
may approach freezing by Sunday morning, esp. N and W as those
areas will have the best chance to see at least some clearing by
dawn Sunday. Sunday will easily be the best day of the weekend,
but highs will still be 5-10 deg below normal in the upper 50s to
around 60. Winds should be light.

Next week will start off dry and Monday is the best chance to
actually see highs near normal. Its also nice to see a mild day
that doesn`t come with high fire danger, as winds should be light
out of the SE.

The next chance for precip comes on Tuesday as a fast moving wave
and cold front move through. Current timing of the front is Tue
morning which means much of the day we`ll be in clouds and CAA.
This will lead to another cool day in the 50s. The GFS is weaker
and faster with the wave while the EC is slower and wetter. Given
the weak/open nature of the wave favor a blend of the two, if not
closer to the GFS.

The rest of the week will be more of the same...fluctuating temps,
but remaining largely near to below normal. There could be another
chance of rain late in the week with yet another cold front, but
the forecast remains dry for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Rain has spread across the region but the visibility has stayed up
around 6SM or better thus far in most locations. The ceilings have
lowered some and range from MVFR to low end VFR. Expect the
ceilings will continue to fluctuate, with the overall trend to be
predominantly MVFR on Saturday, although we could also slip into
IFR ceilings at times. The wind has been a little gusty with the
present showers, but is not expected to be very strong through
most of the day. The wind will generally be out of the east.




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