Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 212302
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
602 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...Short Term and Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 554 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

The cold front is a just a bit farther northwest than previously
expected. Therefore the severe thunderstorm watch runs from Rooks
County Kansas up through Filmore county in Nebraska. Still expect
hail and wind gusts to be the main threats through around
midnight.

Also, I significantly increased PoPs after midnight as the HRRR
shows fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms over most of the
forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Our biggest weather concerns are in the short term period with a
brief window for possibly a few severe thunderstorms prior to the
cold front exiting our area to the south. At 315 PM CDT the cold
front was located along a line from around Hebron, to Mankato, to
Osborne and tracking southeast. Thunderstorms will likely form
along this front between 530 and 800 PM when the front should be
located near Beloit by that point in time. Deep layer wind shear
values around 40 kts with sfc based CAPE values of over 3000 J/KG
will support severe thunderstorm development along the cold front,
which will act as a forcing mechanism. However, these storms
along the cold front will quickly exit our forecast area to the
southeast.

Late evening and tonight.
Additional elevated thunderstorms will develop north of the cold
front late this evening generally after 9 or 10 pm and greatly
expand northward after midnight. However, these later
thunderstorms north of the boundary will have less instability to
work with and should generally not be severe although there could
be a few strong thunderstorms just north of the front over
northern Kansas for at time this evening. Again the main threat
for severe thunderstorms will those thunderstorms that form right
along the cold front boundary this evening. The general
thunderstorms that will expand north through the area late tonight
will likely be the most numerous along and south of I-80.

Sunday...
Thunderstorms will likely linger into Sunday morning, possibly
through mid to late morning across eastern zones. However, the
afternoon should be dry across the area with the storm system
departing our area. It will be a much cooler day behind the cool
front with highs only in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

We expect an upper low to cut off and hang out over the desert
southwest for few days before ejecting into the plains by late
week (Friday) with poor confidence on how this upper low will
track into the central plains. Overall rain chances this week are
currently low at best. We do expect a significant trough to
develop over the western United States by next weekend, but that
trough could get hung up over the west due to a strong ridge
across the southeastern portion of the country. Consequently,
confidence in precipitation chances as we head into next weekend
is also rather low. Overall temperatures should range from the 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

The cold front is well south of the terminals, but scattered
thunderstorms are still expected to move into the terminal
vicinity in the 06-15Z timeframe. These storms should be non-
severe at this point.

Winds will remain north to northwesterly through the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Mangels


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