802
FXUS65 KGJT 091725
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1125 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures remain in place as triple digit highs are
  expected for the Grand Valley and central and southeast Utah.

- Some light precip is possible late tonight through Thursday
  morning as weak disturbances move through.

- Dry, hot, and windy conditions move in on Thursday causing an
  uptick in critical fire weather concerns. Red Flag Warnings
  are now in effect for Thursday as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

High pressure remains to our south, as it has done over the last
several days, with dry conditions still in place. PWATs will
remain at or below normal values though they will start
increasing from west to east as a short wave approaches the
area. Until then, some CAMs are indicating some convection
possible over the San Juans and eastern Uintas while others keep
the CWA dry. Safe to say there is certainly a chance for some
very isolated convection this afternoon. One thing that has been
consistent from run to run is the shortwave mentioned above
moving through the area this evening through Thursday morning.
Models continue to highlight some relatively light precip
accompanying this shortwave. Quick on the heels of this
shortwave, will be an upper level trough that will support a
weak surface cold front. The trough and front will be moving
through Thursday morning so while some showers/storms are
expected, do not anticipate especially strong storms as
instability will not be at a maximum and once peak heating
kicks in, the front will have already moved to the Front Range.
That being said, some gusty outflow winds will still be possible
thanks to the dry lower levels. If the front slows down and
does move through later in the afternoon, however, some stronger
storms will be possible. As generally dry conditions are
forecast to remain in place and some deeper mixing will cause
gusts of 25 to 35 mph, critical fire weather conditions are
expected as described in the fire section below.

Temperatures today will be well above normal with triple digit
highs for the Grand Valley and central and southeastern Utah.
90s will be the rule for the northern/southern valleys and along
the I-70 corridor. Highs will drop 5 to 8 degrees Thursday as
northerly flow ushers in slightly cooler air.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

By Friday, west-northwest flow aloft will be over the CWA. The
gradient should relax some, so lower wind speeds, but pockets of
localized fire weather conditions still look possible.
Temperatures do not change much. Isolated showers look possible
in the afternoon due to some lingering moisture. Over the
weekend the high pressure becomes the dominate feature in the
Desert Southwest so expect our temperatures to climb a little
each day going into next week. There are hints of moisture in
the region, but once again not expecting moisture levels that
are capable of widespread showers and or downpours.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Today will stay mostly dry with a slight potential for showers
along higher terrain. Terminals should see minimal to no impacts
from any showers that do form. The greater concern today will
be 20-25 kt gusts during the afternoon. Tomorrow morning and
potentially into the early afternoon, the potential for
thunderstorms increases. Confidence is highest in storms nearing
KASE, KEGE, KRIL, KTEX, and KGUC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Localized critical fire weather conditions are expected today.
More widespread critical fire weather conditions occur Thursday
as 25-30 mph gusts are expected and low humidities remain in
place. Latest guidance has lowered wind gusts some but
confidence remained high enough to upgrade the Fire Weather
Watches to Red Flag Warnings for Thursday. Latest guidance has
lowered winds for Friday so critical fire weather conditions has
also decreased. More to come for Friday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ203-205-
     207-290>294.
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ487-490-
     491.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT