Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 192344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
544 PM MDT Sat May 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 355 PM MDT Sat May 19 2018

Little change is expected through Sunday with scattered afternoon
and early evening showers and some thunderstorms mainly over
mountains. Radar estimates this afternoon so far of locally more
than a half inch of rain over the Tavaputs Plateau and the Flat
Tops Mountains. However, rainfall at most locations is likely
less than a tenth of an inch. Small hail up to half inch diameter
has also been estimated by radar and seems reasonable. Expect
similar rainfall amounts from Sunday`s convection.

Similar min temperatures tonight as last night should occur at
most locations. Then max temperatures on Sunday should be near or
just a little below normal across our CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 355 PM MDT Sat May 19 2018

Models are still indicating a return to S-SW flow aloft starting
Monday across our CWA and continuing through Wednesday as another
low pressure system is expected to reach the Great Basin and stay
there for a while. The models are also indicating sufficient mid-
level moisture for some late day convection at least Monday and
Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions are again possible
Tuesday and Wednesday, though it presently looks borderline for
winds. And it looks borderline for surface RH on Tuesday. Anyway,
the situation bears watching.

The low pressure system over the Great Basin is then expected to
open up on Wednesday and move northeast by late Wednesday,
leaving our CWA under a very weak influence from the trough to
the north on Thursday. It looks rather dry for our CWA on Thursday
except perhaps the far northern portion of our area. Then another
Pacific low moves to the west coast by Friday, preceded by a
building upper ridge to our west that should position our CWA to
be under a NW flow aloft the last two days of next week. There
could be enough mid level moisture influenced by embedded
disturbances to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
mainly over the mountains Friday and Saturday.

Do not expect a lot of change in temperatures during this long
term period, with max temperatures likely to be a little above
normal for the most part through the period, and min temperatures
to be near to a little above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 524 PM MDT Sat May 19 2018

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all sites over the next
24 hours. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms until 04Z
this evening with another round expected after 17Z Sunday. Gusty
outflow winds will remain the primary concern from any convective
showers with gusts up to 40kts possible. Small hail will also
accompany the stronger storms. CIGS may drop to near ILS
breakpoints at times near showers.




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