Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 140852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
252 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Moisture wrapping around the back side of a deep upper level low
over the plains will be gradually eroding today with scattered snow
showers diminishing from west to east. The focus for showers today
will generally be east of a line from Craig to Rifle south to
Gunnison and Pagosa Springs. Nothing significant expected in the
snowfall department, although brief reductions to visibility
should be expected near the heavier cells. Shortwave ridging build
overhead tonight and Sunday as we await the arrival of another
strong front that will be sweeping into the region early in the
extended period. Expect a solid 4 to 8 degrees of warming today
with another 4 to 8 degrees on Sunday, or a bit below seasonal
norms this afternoon to above normal Sunday afternoon. Breezy
conditions possible by late Sunday with winds picking up Sunday
night, especially over the mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Ridging aloft will be shifting eastward as the next upstream
trough digs sharply across the Western States. This storm system
has some very cold air associated with it. This will lead to a
strong thermal gradient across our CWA on Monday...under the warm
southwest flow sector...and this will bring another round of
strong winds. Dust on snow and heightened fire weather concerns
will once again be the highlights of the forecast. The cold front
sweeps through Monday night and will bring with it below normal
temperatures and another round of snow showers into Tuesday
evening. Moisture seems a bit limited and we are generally on the
southern fringe of the storm track so precipitation amounts look a
bit less than this past storm. The next upstream storm will be
approaching the Left Coast at this time and the newest run of the
GFS is making some not totally unexpected changes. This last storm
is slowing down just a tad and is now lifting northeast across
Utah instead of digging through the 4 Corners region. This means
we get the dry slot and not the precipitation. Someone along the
front range from the Springs to N.Wyoming is going to get some
good precipitation by next weekend. Roller coaster ride as far as
temperatures go. Warm ahead of the systems...followed by a rather
chilly day...then slow warmup returns.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Scatterd snow showers are expected east of a line from KCAG to
KPSO with activity diminishing from west to east after 18Z. VFR
conditions are expected at all sites today with the exceptions
being KASE, KEGE and KHDN where CIGS will drop below ILS
breakpoints at times with local MVFR conds as snow showers pass
through. Locally gusty winds to 30kts also expected near showers.
Dry weather is expected at all sites tonight with CIGS AOA ILS


Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Another wind event is looking more and more likely Monday
afternoon and evening as a strong Pacific cold front moves
across the Great Basin. Very dry conditions are expected out ahead
of this front with wind gusts exceeding 25 mph. This may lead to
heightened fire weather conditions on Monday in locations where
fuels have been deemed critical.


CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ006-011-020-

UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for UTZ027-029.



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