Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
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666 FXUS63 KLOT 090812 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 312 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms this morning, with locally heavy downpours and perhaps some isolated wind gusts. Showers become more scattered this afternoon/tonight. - Breezy and much cooler today with temperatures in the 50s and 60s. - Periods of showers and possibly some thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Through Friday: Showers and some thunderstorms were blossoming across the area early this morning, in association with increasing forcing for ascent and warm/moist advection ahead of a mid-level short wave. This wave, the old mid/upper low circulation which has been hanging out over the northern Plains over the past few days, is shearing east and will eventually be absorbed into another mid- level trough propagating southward from the upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to overspread much of the area early this morning (thunderstorms more likely west and south of the Chicago area, given the northwest-southeast orientation of the MUCAPE field across the southwest half of the cwa) with some locally heavy downpours for the morning commuter rush, before becoming more scattered/showery toward midday and into the afternoon hours as the best forcing shifts off to the east. Scattered showers will linger tonight as the combined upper trough axis continues to shift slowly southeast across the area, though should become less numerous and eventually north of I-80 overnight. Weak mid- level ridging briefly develops overhead on Friday, between the departing upper trough to our southeast and another digging southeast into the upper Mississippi Valley. This will allow for mainly dry weather during the day along with diminishing winds, though a fairly extensive fair weather cumulus field should develop with cool temps aloft. With the primary surface low tracking across downstate IL/IN, low level winds will shift from east-northeast to north during the day, becoming somewhat blustery with gusts around 25 mph at times. This will draw cooler air into the region, limiting high temperatures to the 50s across northeast IL and areas along Lake Michigan, and the low-mid 60s farther west and south. Temps will dip into the 40s tonight, with low-40s especially near the IL/WI border where cloud cover should decrease after midnight. Highs on Friday will rebound slightly to the mid-60s in most areas, though a weak lake breeze along the IL shore and into northwest IN will keep readings in the low 60s in those locations. Ratzer Friday Night through Wednesday: A compact upper-level low will dig southeast over the western Great Lakes Friday night and produce a period of showers primarily across the southeast half of the forecast area mid- evening into the overnight hours. Did not include a mention of thunderstorms in the current forecast, though steepening mid- level lapse rates on the back edge of the showers could support an embedded lightning strike or two. A broad upper-level low across far northern Ontario on Sunday will pivot around southern Hudson Bay and into northern Quebec through the middle of next week. A cold front associated with the low will eventually stall nearby or potentially over the forecast area on Monday. Meanwhile, a mid-level low over the Four Corners region this weekend will drift eastward across the central Great Plains and Ohio Valley then to the mid-Atlantic. This low should interact with the stalled boundary while drawing low-level moisture back northward into the area by Monday. While confidence in the exact evolution remains medium at best, particularly whether the low slows too much and becomes detached from the broader flow pattern, consensus forecasts support periods of showers and possibly some storms Sunday night into Tuesday night (highest chances on Tuesday). Kluber && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Key Aviation Messages: - Area of -SHRA through mid-morning, with a low (10%) chance for an embedded TS through around 11/12Z. - Isolated to scattered -SHRA and MVFR ceilings through this evening. An area of SHRA with some TS across eastern Iowa early this morning is expected to drift E or ESE across northern Illinois through mid-morning. Ongoing TS should begin to favor a general SE trajectory along a NW to SE warm front toward central Illinois. However, a couple widely isolated TS cannot be ruled out into the Chicago metro roughly 09-12Z given remaining steep lapse rates between 10-20kft. If the downward TS trend is slower than expected, VCTS to the SW may be required for MDW/GYY. Beyond mid-morning, isolated to scattered -SHRA with MVFR ceilings are expected into this evening before precip coverage diminishes and ceilings begin to SCT by late tonight. Otherwise, NE winds will persist through today. Speed will diminish under 10 knots tonight while direction begins to settle between 350- 020, but should favor just east of north. Kluber && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 AM CDT Friday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago