Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 261049 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
549 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Some fog will be possible at the GUY TAF site at the start of this
forecast, so have included a tempo group there. DHT and AMA should
remain VFR through this forecast. Southeast winds will get gusty
by this afternoon and then they will decrease toward sunset.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 310 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/

Very warm temperatures will be the highlight throughout the
weekend. An upper level ridge with its axis extending
northeastward is expected to become quasi-stationary over the
region. As a surface trough sets up south of the region later on
this afternoon, this will lead to an increase in southeasterly
flow toward the mid to late afternoon hours on Saturday which will
help keep the dryline across the far western Panhandles. This may
limit some high temperatures eclipsing yesterdays values.
However, temperatures across the area will still be very warm with
many areas expected to be very close to or reaching 100 degrees.
In particular, a Heat Advisory is in effect for Palo Duro Canyon
State Park along with the lower elevation areas in the canyon of
Armstrong County this afternoon and early evening where high
temperatures are expected to be at or above 105 degrees. Given
the stagnant airmass that has been leftover from yesterday and the
very light winds less than 5 kts throughout the previous day with
a large area of favorable upper level subsidence over the region,
temperatures yesterday in the aforementioned advisory areas were
much warmer than the rest of the region based off of observational
data. With a more steady southeasterly wind not expected until
later in the afternoon, temperatures during the Advisory period
for today are expected to be similar to yesterdays values. With
the previously stated mid level ridge, no precipitation is
expected across the region for today.

Going into the second half of the weekend, the main upper level
ridge will shift east of the Panhandles bringing southwesterly mid
level flow into the region which will then shift to more of a
zonal flow during the second half of Sunday. A perturbation in the
mean 700-500 hPa flow with good diffluent flow in-conjunction
with the positioning of the dryline across the western Panhandles
should help generate some diurnal showers and thunderstorms
across the central and western Panhandles and then move east into
the eastern Panhandles into the early morning hours on Monday.
High temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler with highs in
the lower to upper 90s across the region.

An upper level disturbance moving into the central Rockies during
the first half of the coming week along with perturbations in the
mean mid level flow along dryline positioning will help generate
several chances of diurnal thunderstorms mainly across the
northern and eastern Panhandles w.r.t to the positioning of the
upper level system and dryline through Wednesday. Toward the end
of the forecast period, an upper level ridge building northeast
from Mexico along with a deepening trough across the western
CONUS should increase our mid level southwesterly flow toward the
end of the work week. High temperatures throughout the week will
remain above average. Went above guidance by the end of the coming
week with a strong southwesterly flow, temperatures may reach the
mid 100`s by Thursday and Friday.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Palo Duro Canyon.




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