Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 191035

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
635 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

High pressure will provide mainly clear skies but cold
temperatures through tonight. Although we`re still watching an
east coast storm, in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame,
present indications are that any light snow, will be confined to
the Poconos and Catskills.


Early this morning a shallow layer of moisture is moving through
the region behind a weak surface boundary. By mid morning skies
are expected to become mostly sunny as high pressure in eastern
Canada builds south across the area. Temperatures will remain
cool even with plenty of sunshine. Highs in the northern
forecast area will range in the middle to upper 20s with the
southern tier and northeast Pennsylvania in the lower to middle
30s but the Wyoming Valley near 40.

Tonight, high pressure over eastern Canada will keep its
influence over the area with mainly clear skies. High clouds
will increase over northeast Pennsylvania late tonight. Lows
will fall into the 5 to 15 degrees range in central New York and
15 to 20 over northeast Pennsylvania.

On Tuesday morning the initial low forming over the southeast
will lift quickly out to sea as it moves off the North Carolina
coast. By late day as the upper level trough deepens over the
southeast another low will develop under the upper level
feature in the Tennessee Valley as a secondary low develops
again near coastal North Carolina. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF keep the
area dry through 00Z Wed. There will continue to be a very tight
moisture gradient on the north side of the system with cold/dry
Canadian high pressure and continued northeast surface flow.
Will keep just slight chance pops in the far southeast forecast
area Tuesday afternoon. Highs will range in the 30s.


420 AM Update...
Main forecast challenge remains evolution of a complicated
coastal system. While odds are it misses the majority of the
area, uncertainty is rearing its ugly head even more, especially
greater Hazleton/Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to Monticello areas.

The main players will be a southern stream wave of low pressure
now in the Southern Plains, a northern stream upper trough which
will attempt to dig in behind the southern wave as it translates
to the Midatlantic Coast, and a cold yet very dry air mass from
high pressure building across Ontario into Quebec with time.
ECMWF has started trending further north with shield of
precipitation during the last couple of runs, meanwhile the 00Z
NAM - which has had a pretty good track record this season -
actually completely misses the area along with a great majority
of GFS ensemble members. SREF ensemble output, however, brings
a surprisingly broad swath of snow to a large part of our area.
SREF often overdoes precipitation especially in terms of
coverage, but the range and spread of magnitude is unusually
large at this time, with mean values of many inches of snow
extending well inland.

To summarize, while the lately well-performing NAM completely
misses us, the operational GFS-ECMWF-GEM bring outer edge of
snow into our Northeast PA zones, and perhaps to southern
Catskills. The SREF if nothing else highlights the fact that
there is still uncertainty. Meteorologically, the models
regardless of precipitation placement have us in a very
unfavorable location for jet support - left entrance region
Tuesday night into Wednesday - and the low level flow of air in
keeps a northern trajectory the whole time, feeding in very dry
air from the Canadian high. So there is not a lot of support;
it may turn out to be more virga than anything else.

For now, we have stepped up snow chances in the Wyoming Valley-
Poconos-Catskills areas Tuesday night into Wednesday, with about
1-3 inches snow accumulation south of the Scranton to
Monticello line, especially towards Hazleton. Hopefully, upcoming
model runs will bring more clarity to this situation. This does
have the look of a system in which there could be a very sharp
gradient between no snow at all, and a significant accumulation.
That line could very well be still south of the our area, where
better support will exist. Anyone with travel plans, especially
heading south and east, will want to keep an eye on this one.


355 PM Update...
Dry weather (except for perhaps a few flurries) will continue
for our entire forecast area Thursday through Friday night as a
northerly flow develops over the region, and eventually weak
ridging moves in. Cold weather will continue with daytime highs
in the upper 20s to 30s and overnight lows in the 10s to lower
20s in most locations.

The latest guidance has trended a little slower and slightly
further south with the next weather system. Still plenty of time
to watch this one. At this time it looks like a low pressure
system will track into the Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon,
spreading precipitation into our area late in the day or
evening. As upper level energy phases over the region the low
will emerge off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. A strong, very
cold Canadian high pressure system will supply plenty of cold
air into this system. This will keep temperatures in the 20s at
night and 30s during the day over the weekend...and should keep
just about all the precip that does fall in the form of snow.
Did leave a chance for a rain/snow mix Saturday PM over the
lower elevations of NE PA where temps may be in the upper 30s.


High pressure over eastern Canada will bring VFR conditions
through this TAF period. Some scattered clouds around 5K feet
early this morning will mix out by mid morning with SKC
expected through tonight. At KAVP some high clouds will move in

Northerly winds at 5 to 10 knots today becoming light and
variable again this evening.



Tuesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Small chance of snow
and restrictions at KAVP on Tuesday night/Wednesday; system
probably staying south.




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