Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 271729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

The May 27-28, 2018 18 UTC TAF discussion follows:


Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities are expected to continue
through the TAF period.

Southeast winds will continue and should lose the gustiness with
the loss of vertical mixing this evening. Winds should increase
across west-central/northwest Oklahoma toward the end of the TAF

There is a low chance that an isolated thunderstorm could be in
vicinity or affect KWWR late this evening; however, the
probability is too low to include in TAFS. The more likely
scenario is for any convection to stay well north and west of the



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1111 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

Hourly temperatures, dew points, and winds were updated based on
latest observations/short-term models. Otherwise, no significant
changes were made to the forecast.

Another hot day is expected across the area with temperatures
ranging from from near 90F across southeast Oklahoma to near 100F
across far western north Texas.

Isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop along a
dryline in the Texas panhandle later this afternoon. There is
still a low chance the remnant thunderstorms could affect far
northwestern Oklahoma this evening.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 528 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

VFR will apply through the forecast period. Expect southeast winds
around 10 to 15 kt by late this morning. Some gusts may exceed 20
kt during the late afternoon hours, especially over WWR. High
clouds will stream overhead throughout the day. Wind speeds will
decrease after sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

A mid to upper ridge will continue to expand northward today into
the midwest. Hot conditions are expected under it, with afternoon
highs climbing into the upper 90s across western north TX. A mid
level shortwave trough within southwesterlies will lift
northeastward into the lee of the Rockies this afternoon and
evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the high
plains, and then move very close to northwestern OK during the
evening hours tonight. Only a few showers and storms are expected,
however, as the forcing will reside much further to the north.

By late Mon afternoon, a closed will continue its track across
the central Rockies a more significant shortwave trough is
expected again in the lee of the Rockies. Storms will have a
better chance of making it southward into northwestern OK
overnight Mon with this feature, and could make it as far south as
central OK Tue morning with a fairly stout LLJ expected. A
damaging wind threat could accompany these storms, in addition to
some hail.

The highest thunderstorm chances appear possible Tue-Wed AM with
an upper jet, mid level shortwave trough, dryline, and diffluence
aloft present. A couple of discrete supercells appear possible
Tue afternoon along the dryline across western and southwestern
OK, and perhaps north TX given the current timing of the
shortwave. However, CIN will be an issue and there will be a
narrow window of opportunity. Further north, an MCS appears
likely during the evening hours over southern KS and northern OK,
and will likely dive south overnight with aid from a LLJ. Nothing
is set in stone at the moment, but based on the location of the
nose of the LLJ have opted to lean closer to the GFS and NAM
solutions bringing the complex further south and west overnight

After Wed AM, rain chances should again come to an end and
sticky/hot conditions will return under an expanding mid to upper
ridge. It still looks like widespread triple digit heat indexes
Thu and Fri. Some relief will be possible through the weekend
with a cold front accompanying an upper low moving into the
northern plains, but don`t expect much.


Oklahoma City OK  92  68  90  70 /   0   0   0  30
Hobart OK         95  72  94  71 /   0  10  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  96  72  94  71 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           95  71  93  68 /  10  20  10  20
Ponca City OK     93  68  92  70 /   0   0   0  20
Durant OK         92  69  91  70 /   0   0   0  10




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