Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 210554

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
154 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

Impactful weather: Minimal. Low afternoon humidities.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Nrn Michigan remains in a confluent upper level flow, with NW mid
level winds coming out of Ontario and more W/WSW winds coming out of
a weak/shallow shortwave in the central conus. There was virtually
no forcing out there attm, with sfc high pressure overhead and
light/calm winds. Temperatures were chilly, but not quite as chilly
as what was expected yesterday at this time. Dew points didn`t mix
out as effectively yesterday, likely due to the greater amount of
green up that`s been underway. This was especially the case along
and south of M-72 where areas of fog have also developed. With the
great radiational cooling conditions right now, am still expecting
many areas along and north of M-72 to get chilly enough for
frost/some fog development. There was some shower activity ahead of
the weak shortwave, from far srn MN through Iowa/MO/IL. This was in
a zone of weak forcing comprised of DPVA, low to mid level WAA and
some upper divergence from a rather meager 60+kt upper jetlet.

Heading through daybreak, higher level clouds with the
aforementioned shortwave will start streaming in over the srn CWA,
thickening up into a mostly cloudy/cloudy sky by late morning/early
afternoon across much of nrn lower Michigan. Eastern upper to see a
good deal of sun through much of the day. High temperatures will be
warmest across the U.P. ... in the lower half of the 70s, decreasing
heading further south (into the upper half of the 60s) where thicker
clouds prevent as much solar insolation. Could even see some light
rains develop as early as this afternoon in the GTV Bay region and
along/south of M-72, as the weak forcing to our west attm, moves in
across this area. This forcing and deepening moisture then crosses
mainly M-32 and south in nrn lower through the night, providing
chances for rain. No instability will result in little to no chance
of thunder. The sfc high pressure and drier air remains over eastern
upper through tonight, with little to no chance of any rain.

Lows tonight have been raised a couple degrees in the srn half of
the CWA with respect to consensus MOS numbers, due to thick low
level cloud. Readings in the middle 40s north to as mild as the
lower 50s to the M-55 corridor expected.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

...Quiet & warm midweek weather...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal, although may have to watch
fire danger concerns toward the middle of the week.

Pattern Forecast: Rather zonal flow aloft will encompass the
midsection of the country through much of the forecast area. A
couple of weak shortwaves are expected to race across the region
early Tuesday and again late Wednesday, but with little fanfare as
strong surface high pressure drives northern Michigan`s sensible
weather through at least Thursday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Temperatures and minimum
relative humidity related to fire weather concerns, primarily on

An area of low pressure passing through southern Michigan/Ohio
valley Monday night will continue to shift east early Tuesday
morning. Aside from a rogue lingering shower early in the day
(primarily east of I-75), clearing skies will be the rule. Mostly
sunny skies expected area-wide by mid-late afternoon as high
pressure sits atop the region. High temperatures expected to top out
in upper 60s to low 70s across the forecast area (cooler along the
immediate lake shores).

Quiet weather expected to continue into Wednesday with lots of
sunshine and temperatures climbing a few degrees over Tuesday`s
highs. Low-mid 70s expected across eastern upper and low 70s to low
80s across northern lower. With high pressure continuing to remain
in control, lots of dry air is expected through the column
represented by afternoon minimum relative humidity values falling to
the 20-35% range across the majority of the forecast area...lowest
in sections of northeast lower. Despite light winds, the combination
of warm temperatures and low RH will likely raise concern for
elevated fire danger once again.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

High pressure continues over the Great Lakes region producing a
quiet, warm, and dry Thursday. By late in the week, an area of low
pressure is expected to be dropping out of Canada into the northern
plains before sliding east across the Great Lakes this weekend.
With accompanying moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico, shower
and perhaps occasional thunderstorm chances return to the forecast
as early as Thursday night/Friday and continue at various times
through at least Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

High pressure will maintain control across Northern Michigan
overnight into Monday. An elongated area of low pressure will
lift thru the Ohio Valley...with the northern edge of the
associated moisture shield reaching into Central Lower Michigan by
Monday evening. Conditions will remain VFR thru the 24 hour TAF
forecast period...although clouds will increase and cigs will
lower from south to north Monday into Monday night. Rain chances
will increase around TVC and MBL Monday night. Light/variable
winds overnight will become SE AOB 10 kts on Monday...and then
light/variable again after sunset Monday evening.


Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

A weak pressure gradient will hold over the region for the next
several days, resulting in minimal chances for any wind/wave issues.
Weak low pressure does cross srn Lakes Michigan and Huron later this
afternoon into tonight for some potential light rain showers.
Otherwise, next chance of rain arriving mainly Friday-Saturday.


MI...FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ008-015>019-


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