Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 152337

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
737 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

...Seasonably cool tonight with few clouds...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early afternoon surface/composite
analysis shows an ill-defined cold front across southern Lake
Huron/central Lower Michigan/southern Wisconsin...with a 1022mb high
over northern Ontario.  1005mb surface low was near Lake Winnipeg
with a warm front extending southeast toward the Boundary Waters.
Clouds/precipitation ongoing to the northeast of this warm front
across northwest Ontario...some of this cloud cover is spilling
southeast toward Lake Superior.  Over northern Lower clouds have
been gradually thinning this afternoon as drier low level air sweeps
in from the northeast...surface dew points now down into the 30s
across the tip of the mitt and along the Lake Huron shoreline
counties...though still in the 50s over southwest portion of the
forecast area.

Surface low over Manitoba will track southeast tonight toward a
broad area of 3-4mb/3h pressure falls...and will probably be near
the north shore of Lake Superior by Wednesday morning.  East-west
oriented surface ridge will "fold" underneath the upstream surface
low and will lie across Lower Michigan/southern Wisconsin.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Pretty minimal forecast concerns
tonight...though it could be a bit chilly in some low lying areas of
northeast Lower where can see some lows in the upper 30s.  Areas
around MBL/CAD/HTL where low level moisture hasn`t completely mixed
out yet this afternoon (though dew points will continue to drop
through the rest of the afternoon) could be susceptible to some
patchy fog/stratus development overnight as winds decouple.  Current
crossover temperatures would suggest it though again anticipate dew
points to fall through the rest of the where dew
points end up after mixing with respect to overnight lows (likely in
the lower 40s) will determine fog potential.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

...Warmer and quiet weather through the week...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Elevated fire weather
concerns continue through Wednesday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale synoptic analysis reveals a 3
to 4 wave long-wave pattern across the northern hemisphere anchored
by an anomalously deep H5 trough across northeast Canada. Long-wave
ridging noted up through the western CONUS although with a couple of
interesting albeit compact cutoff features, one over Nevada and one
just off the CA coast. At the surface, high pressure and dry air is
across Canada today nosing down into the Great Lakes with upstream
weak surface low pressure sliding through Saskatchewan.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Small rain chances Wednesday and elevated
fire weather issues.

Aforementioned deep Canadian trough expected to advance into the
north Pacific through the latter half of the week into the weekend
allowing a more zonal flow pattern to build back through the Great
Lakes. Weak-ish short wave and attending surface low over
Saskatchewan today will slide across Ontario through the day
Wednesday, dragging a surface front down through the region. Thin
axis of low-mid level instability slides down through the region
ahead of the boundary. As such, it`s not totally outside the realm
of possibilities that we see a few "elevated" showers pass down
through the region through the day. But given the fairly limited
moisture with this system and dry layers down low, plan on going
with a dry forecast. Dry weather again for Thursday and Friday as
high pressure rebuilds across the northern Great Lakes.

Fire weather: Substantial dry air (dewpoints in the teens) noted
across Ontario today, cycling around high pressure and pressing down
into northern Michigan. Surface high moves off into Quebec by
Wednesday as the aformentioned sfc low slips into Ontario. A bit
more of a westerly/southwesterly flow component develops across
northern Michigan, which will begin to advect higher dewpoint air
back into the region from the Midwest. Will see just how much deep
mixing of antecedent dry air we can muster before this occurs and
impact on surface dewpoints/RH values. MET/MAV guidance is fairly
bullish in kicking dewpoints back into the 40s, which experience
dictates is probably too quick. That said, I have nudged inherited
forecast dewpoints up just a tad into the mid to upper 30s range
resulting in min RH values in the lower 20 percent range with temps
in the mid 70s to around 80. Winds remain below critical thresholds.
A little cooler on Thursday with higher dewpoints which should ease
fire weather issues.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Remaining minimal. Rainfall chances
return during the weekend.

Another piece of short wave energy is expected dip down out of
western Canada into the Great Lakes by late in the weekend, dragging
surface low pressure and a stronger cold front from the plains
through the Great Lakes, late Saturday into Sunday. Longer term
guidance remains fairly bullish with PoPs and rainfall amounts,
which of course is good news to help alleviate our recent run of dry
weather and associated fire weather concerns. Will see how that
plays out. Return to quieter weather for Monday and Tuesday with
Temperatures returning to near seasonal normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

VFR conditions expected through high pressure
builds into Michigan. Only potential issue is some shallow
fog/stratus around MBL which may develop later tonight. Light
winds through the period.


Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

Surface ridging building in tonight will allow winds to slack off
for a bit before coming around to south/southwest overnight into
Wednesday. Winds then expected to veer around to a more north-
through-east component for Thursday...but are expected to remain
below headline criteria.




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