Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 151745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
145 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

High impact weather potential: Elevated fire danger this afternoon
and evening due to warm temperatures and low humidities.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Early this morning, the deeper moisture axis (PWATS ~1.25") has
unexpectedly worked much further north than anticipated from
yesterday early morning, engulfing all of nrn lower Michigan. The
partially due to a stronger than expected shortwave easily
identifiable on latest satellite imagery in Wisconsin. Most of this
deeper moisture was in the mid levels, while the deeper low level
moisture remains closer to the sfc and nearly stationary boundary
north of the Ohio river valley. This is also where the better
instability and heavier showers/storms resided. Across nrn Michigan
however, the still dry low levels has resulted in generally lighter
showers and sprinkles across most of nrn lower. This was out ahead
of the aforementioned shortwave and lower level trough/cold front
(seen best at 850mb). The sfc frontal zone is still upstream from
srn MN through NC Wisconsin and central upper Michigan. Temperatures
were mild for the overnight, in the 50s to lower 60s.

The shortwave and low level cold front will press south and east
shortly after daybreak, with the low level cold front dropping
southward and out of the area. This will end all rains with cooler
and much drier air advecting in through the entire day. Outside of
some scattered cumulus this afternoon in portions of the SE CWA,
skies will turn sunny, with clear skies continuing through the
night. Maybe some patchy fog and shallow stratus can develop in
coastal areas from the Leelanau peninsula southward, possibly inland
into the higher terrain (low chance at this point). Otherwise, very
quiet weather after rains end this morning.

Highs today will be a shade cooler in the lower half of the 60s in
eastern upper to the lower 70s into the M-55 corridor. Lows tonight
in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Maybe a few low lying areas in
the with some frost, but nothing widespread.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

...Warm & Quiet Weather Continues...

High Impact Weather Potential: Elevated fire danger across the
majority of northern Michigan through the upcoming week.

Pattern Forecast: Nearly zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure
are expected to dominate northern Michigan`s weather through the
forecast period. Only minor precip (sprinkles or a few isolated
showers) chances arrives later Wednesday/Wednesday night near Lake
Superior as a weak mid-level perturbation races across southern

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Low relative humidities and
minor precip chances across the far north.

Only real hiccup with respect to northern Michigan`s sensible
weather revolves around a weak wave expected to pass through far
southern Ontario late in the day Wednesday - Wednesday night.
Despite a slight uptick in low level moisture, anemic forcing should
limit much, if any, widespread/appreciable rainfall. Will continue
with very low slight chance PoPs across northern Chippewa County
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Any sprinkles/light
showers should be light and brief with many staying dry through the
day. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures are
anticipated with highs near 70 across eastern upper and varying from
the low 70s to the low 80s across northern lower

Quiet weather is expected to continue Thursday with partly sunny
skies and temperatures ranging from the mid 60s across eastern upper
and the Great Lakes shorelines to the low-mid 70s elsewhere.

Additional concern through the forecast period and likely beyond
remains elevated fire danger as a result of of antecedent dry
conditions, low relative humidities and warm temperatures. Wednesday
will likely feature the lowest RH values with some of the typical
inland northern locales falling into the teens during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

High pressure overhead through the start of the weekend is expected
to generate more sunshine and continued warm across much of the
Great Lakes. However, precipitation chances slowly increase Saturday
into Sunday as a weakly organized system from the central plains
lifts north into the region. Cooler high temperatures, falling back
into the 60s, can be expected Sunday into the start of next week as
mid level temperatures cool in brief troughing behind the weekend`s


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

VFR conditions expected through Wednesday morning.


Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

A low level cold front pushed through the region this morning,
putting an end to the areas of light rain/sprinkles across Lake
Huron and Michigan. Cooler and much drier air advects into the
region under more northerly and relatively light winds. Winds become
much more variable this evening with weak high pressure overhead,
before the arrival of another weak cold front Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Winds turn more southerly tonight ahead of this
boundary and increase, but winds will still remain under advisory




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