Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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073 FXUS63 KAPX 140244 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1044 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms along M-72 and south into this evening. - Patchy frost possible Tue night and Wed night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1036 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Going forecast is in good shape for the rest of the night with only minor tweaks needed. Cold front has just about cleared the entire forecast area to the south, but a few showers along the front continue to threaten the extreme southeast portion of the forecast area. These should be ending soon. Mid-high level clouds linger to the north of the front, nearly to the Straits of Mackinac. Temperatures falling about as forecast since sunset, although they are holding up a bit across parts of northern Lower thanks to the lingering cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 313 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Northern stream shortwave troughing will continue to slide from Ontario/far northern Great Lakes over Quebec Tuesday. Meanwhile, a stronger southern stream wave will work from the southern Great Plains across the lower Mississippi Valley/southeast CONUS. A stalled front draped across mid-Michigan will slowly sag south tonight into Tuesday as a broad cyclone supported by aforementioned southern stream troughing treks across the mid-Mississippi Valley into Tuesday evening. Surface high pressure will build near Hudson Bay through the period, nosing down into the Great Lakes by Tuesday. Forecast Details: Scattered showers/storms along M-72 and south into this evening -- As the previously mentioned front slowly works further south across the middle of the state, additional scattered showers and storms are expected along and south of the M-72 corridor into this evening. Brief heavy downpours, lightning, gusty winds, and potential for small hail are the primary concerns with any storms given meager instability and weak deep-layer wind shear in place. The best chance for any strong storm will be close to Saginaw Bay. Severe storms are not expected. Otherwise, sunny skies and quiet weather are in store for northern Michigan Tuesday as high pressure builds in. Northeasterly low-level flow will usher in some slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s for most interior areas. Cooler highs near 60 are anticipated near the lakeshores. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 313 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Pattern/synopsis: A nearly zonal flow aloft with weak surface high pressure in place Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Low amplitude troughing along with weak surface low pressure then move in later Thursday into at least Friday. Uncertainty over the pattern evolution after that for the upcoming weekend. Forecast: Quiet weather in order through at least Thursday morning from the combination of nearly zonal flow aloft and weak surface high pressure. This is expected to result in generally warm days and chilly nights. Could even see some frost, especially in low lying spots for Tuesday and/or Wednesday nights due to light winds and mostly clear skies promoting decent radiational cooling conditions. Shower chances then return at some point late Thursday with continued shower chances through at least Friday. Pattern evolution after that is in question with a general zonal flow likely returning. Extended guidance varies on whether or not short waves move through this flow over the weekend which will determine the timing/extent of any shower chances. Wouldn`t cancel any weekend plans just yet as there is still plenty of time to hopefully discern how this all plays out over the next few days. High temperatures are expected to be near seasonal averages through the work week and possibly a few degrees above this weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 804 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 VFR aviation weather condtions expected across the northern Michigan terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time. Locally gusty winds will diminish early this evening, with northerly winds generally AOB 10 kts for the rest of the period. Some patchy fog is possible overnight tonight, most likely at KCIU, which may briefly reduce conditions to MVFR. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...PBB SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...PBB