132
FXUS63 KBIS 122329
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
629 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures this upcoming week with highs in the
  mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the week.
  A few storms may become strong Monday afternoon and evening in
  the west.

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Removed any remaining PoPs as the atmosphere is just too dry in
the southwest for anything to reach the surface. Smoke remains
visible on Geocolor satellite. However, most sites maintain
full visibility, therefore have not further expanded smoke
mentions at this time. That said, skies will remain hazy in the
distance for most locations through the remainder of the day
today and probably through the day Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Presently, upper low pressure is located over northern Ontario with
a ridge over the Rockies. As a result, northwesterly flow aloft
is present. This had brought Canadian wildfire smoke into the
area, while a cold frontal boundary drug it to the surface early
this morning. That said, other than a few patches in the north
central and far south, visibility reducing smoke has generally
cleared out of the forecast area. Still, lower concentrations of
smoke are likely still present in many areas and thus a hazy
appearance may persist through the remainder of the day.

A weak embedded shortwave is bringing showers into southwestern
North Dakota. However, with approximately 30 to 35 degree
dewpoint depressions and soundings suggesting dry air extending
a fair amount off the surface, any precipitation that falls
should be fairly light if it even reaches the surface. A few
additional showers may develop later this afternoon.
Instability looks very limited, however, with only up to a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE in the far southwest. As a result, there
could be a few rumbles of thunder, but thunderless precipitation
is likely to prevail overall.

A few showers are then possible as early as late Monday morning in
the northwest, with a few thunderstorms possible in the west during
the afternoon. However, the potential for showers and
thunderstorms increases Monday night through Tuesday with a 60
to 70 percent chance of precipitation as a strong shortwave
passes through the area. Instability of 500 to 1000 J/kg of
skinny CAPE is possible Monday afternoon in far western North
Dakota. Combined with potentially 25 to 30 kt of 0 to 6 km Bulk
Shear, a few strong thunderstorms are not out of the question.
Even a brief, pulsing severe storm or two wouldn`t be entirely
surprising should the right conditions develop.

Beyond Tuesday night, periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
look to persist through the remainder of the week as various
waves slide through the region. Temperatures for the week look
to be seasonable with highs mostly in the 60s and low 70s
through Friday, then potentially a bit cooler for next weekend.
Lows will be mostly in the 40s for most locations most nights.
The main exception is that tonight could see lows drop into the
upper 30s mainly in the Turtle Mountains. Brief frost isn`t
entirely out of the question in the Turtle Mountains early
Monday morning, but confidence is low as forecast temperatures
keep creeping slightly upwards.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR ceilings and visibility are generally expected to prevail
through the period. However, by Monday morning a 20 percent
chance of showers enters northwestern North Dakota. By the
afternoon, there is a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms in western North Dakota, with a 20 percent chance
of showers in the north central. Confidence in the exact timing
and placement of any showers and thunderstorms is low. That
said, ceilings and visibility, along with erratic winds, are
possible with any showers and thunderstorms that develop.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken