293
FXUS63 KBIS 111930
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
230 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s today. An isolated
  shower or thunderstorm possible later today through this
  evening.

- Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible Sunday, along with
  continued mild temperatures.

- Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s possible across the
  northeast on Monday morning.

- Near average (highs mid to upper 60s and lows near 40)
  temperatures expected next week, as well as near daily chances
  for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Currently, northwest flow aloft with an embedded wave moving
through the region. Right now just some high clouds moving
through, with temperatures well into the 70s and touching the
lower 80s.

Aforementioned wave and associated cold FROPA may bring a
chance for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms later today
through this evening. These would have to overcome quite an
abundant amount of dry air in the boundary layer, but could be
done so will maintain some low POPs through 06Z.

Our flow aloft remain northwesterly over the next couple of
days, with another embedded wave moving through later this
weekend bringing a chance for showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms again on Sunday.

A S/WV mid level ridge and weak area of sfc high pressure
follows the FROPA Sunday night/Monday morning, and will set the
stage for some possible freezing temperatures/frost across the
northeast.

Model ensembles for next week show a zonal yet active flow
pattern, with the upper level jet aloft steering multiple waves
across the region resulting in periodic precipitation chances
and near/below normal temperatures.

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions generally expected through the 18Z forecast
period. An isolated afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm
is possible today, although confidence is not high enough to
include in the TAFs at this time. Light winds will become a
breezy westerly wind by this afternoon, diminishing this evening
and becoming more northerly Sunday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH