Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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916 FXUS63 KBIS 091730 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND Issued by National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1230 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly warmer temperatures with isolated afternoon and evening showers expected today. - Warm and mainly dry trend expected Friday through Saturday. Some breezy to windy winds possible on Friday. Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms could return Sunday. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures along with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms possible next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 This afternoon and evening, expecting showers to develop in western North Dakota, but the question remaining is how much of a hindrance dry air will be to precipitation reaching the ground. Winds remain out of the NW/W this afternoon. Forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 927 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Winds are turning to the west from west to east this morning, but are remaining lighter (5 - 10 MPH). Otherwise, forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Mid level disturbance continues to produce clouds across the CWA. These could linger into the morning before additional clouds and perhaps a few showers for this afternoon. Made slight adjustments to sky grids based on current observations. There are some areas in the west that are near or at saturation. A DOT webcam near Beach also showing some patchy fog. Although not expected to be widespread, placed in some patchy fog mention this morning for some of these western areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A mid level boundary is currently bringing some increased cloud cover across portions of the CWA this morning, and will slowly drift south through the morning. An east to west ridge will keep much of the area dry through the morning, with some clearing skies away from this boundary. As this ridge moves through the region and flattens later today, an increased amount of mid level moisture along a secondary front will move back into the area. This could bring some isolated showers this afternoon through this evening, although dry air at the lower levels will help limit these. Limited instability will also limit the thunderstorm threat today. Temperatures today will be slightly warmer than previous days, with some areas getting back into the lower 70s. Northerly winds could become breezy at times today. Dry air will diminish showers tonight. A steady north northwest wind could be found, along with low temperatures in the 40s. A clipper system then looks to push through eastern North Dakota on Friday. The better dynamics for showers looks to be east of our CWA, although there could still be some breezy to perhaps windy northwest winds. Temperatures look to remain mild as the cooler air with this system also looks to move in more east of the CWA. A northwest flow pattern then looks to settle in for this weekend. This looks to also be a warming pattern as the ridge in the Pacific Northwest flattens over the Northern Rockies and brings about warming temperatures into the 70s for Saturday. This could bring a steady westerly flow for Saturday. Afternoon RH could also drop into the 20s to mid 30s. Some increased fire weather concerns are possible, although recent rains have made fuels quite green. A weak wave may move across the state in this northwest flow pattern on Sunday. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms could be possible as a result, although this wave would have to first overcome some of the dry air in place. Temperatures look to remain mild and generally in the 70s. Winds look to lessen slightly, and RH values also look to slightly improve for Sunday, limiting fire weather concerns. Clusters then indicate that a flattening ridge could lead to a zonal flow pattern followed by perhaps a broad yet more northerly position trough. The result of this could be periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms early to mid next week. Temperatures in this potential pattern may not be as warm, as indicated by the broad spreads in the NBM. Of note though are even the 25th percentiles forecast highs are close to normal. So the potential for slightly above normal temperatures still remains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Expect VFR conditions for all TAF sites through the period. A brief lowering this afternoon and evening is possible with SHRA passing through the region, but TS are not expected. Winds will remain gusty around 20 - 25 kts this afternoon, and lessen to 5 - 10 kt overnight. Higher winds expected once again in the area, but this time a bit more east (JMS will see highest gusts on Friday). && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...FGF/AH DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...FGF/AH