Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 141132

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
632 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Satellite imagery shows mainly high level clouds passing over the
area as high pressure drifts to the south and a surface trough
approaches from the north. The clear skies were producing quite a
range in temperatures early this morning from the single digits
below zero across the far north to around 20 over east central

After a brief warm air advection period this morning, a series of
cold fronts will drop over the area. The first cold front will be
associated with a wind shift from southwest to northwest during
this afternoon. Later tonight, a reinforcing shot of cold air will
arrive as h850 temperatures drop to -14 C over northeast
wisconsin by Thursday morning on blustery north winds.

Progs focus any snow shower activity toward the Lake superior snow
belt region late today into Thursday. Will consider adding
flurries over far northeast Wisconsin for the late tonight into
Thursday morning period with the second and colder surge of air.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

With a beefy mid-level ridge expected to be present over the
northern Plains into southern Canada,  quiet weather is anticipated
through the weekend.  The quiet conditions may continue into the
middle of next week, if the system projected by the gfs/ecmwf
remains south of the region.  Will use a general model blend.

Thursday night through Friday night...North flow will continue off
Lake Superior at the start of Thursday night.  But with Canadian
high pressure building southeast into the region, lingering clouds
over far NE WI and Door county should depart around midnight or
shortly thereafter.  The rest of the region should see clear skies
for the duration of the period.  Temperatures will be seasonable.

Rest of the forecast...As a weak storm system passes over the Ohio
Valley, high pressure is expected to remain across the region.
Guidance is indicating that a backdoor cold front will drop across
the region on Sunday.  No precip is expected, but winds are
anticipated to shift to the northeast, which should result in cooler
and more blustery conditions than Saturday.  As another storm system
moves into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Monday, should see more in
the way of cloud cover, but the dry air from the high pressure
system will be formidable for precip to overcome. Prefer to stick
with a dry forecast, though the cooler weather should persist due to
the NE winds.

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

A period of mid to high level clouds will drift over
eastern Wisconsin this morning, followed by p6sm SKC. A cold
front will drop over the state this afternoon, shifting southwest
winds to northwest after passage. Sct-bkn ceilings of 3000 to
4000 may be on the increase in the wake of the cold front late
afternoon into tonight. Scattered MVFR ceilings with snow showers
will be possible across northern Wisconsin late tonight.



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