Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 230318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1018 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Issued at 1011 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Little weather in short term. Some high clouds will move across
the state overnight associated with weak trough axis associated
with the exiting cutoff circulation to the south. Much of the
moisture has exited to the south and is thinning. With the light
winds and still melting snow cover in south central MN we could
see some patchy fog again late there. Didnt mention at this time
the SREF probs are lower than yesterday and we were only able to
get a few 3-5sm on AWOS sites 11z-13z. Temepratures will drop off
through the 30s and much of the area should remain above freezing

The surface ridge remains in place again for Monday with the next
cold front moving into northern MN. We expect plenty of sunshine
again with temperatures warming the 60s most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

The deterministic models continue to indicate split flow
associated with the upper flow pattern associated with Tuesday
front. Much of the energy is shunted to the east in the northern
stream flow with the cutoff circulation dropping well west of MN
across South Dakota and Nebraska into Wednesday. We should be able
to work some light rain into far western MN before waning as it
drops southeast with the front across southern MN. We retained
some small PoPs to the west and south for now.

The next front still looks to move through the area
Thursday/Thursday night. Somewhat cooler air follows this front
into Friday but the GFS is more progressive with its western CONUS
trough into the weekend. This brings higher heights aloft and
warmer air into the area for the weekend. We will trend warmer
with readings close to or slightly above average by next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1011 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Weak ridge axis aloft, oriented NE-SW across NOAM from eastern
Canada into the Four Corners region, with exiting surface high
pressure will be the main features at play through tomorrow
evening. The ridge will keep a dry surface cold front off to the
west, helping maintain weak south to southwest winds tonight
through tomorrow. Only clouds through tomorrow afternoon look to
be FEW-SCT high cirrus clouds drifting over the area. Some mid-
level ceilings may try to develop in western-central MN after dark
tomorrow. Long story short, high confidence of VFR conditions
expected throughout this TAF set.

KMSP...No significant weather impacts expected.

Tue...VFR. Slight chc -SHRA. Wind NE 5-15 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind variable around 5 kts.
Thu...MVFR ceilings possible. Chc -RA. Wind SW 10-15 kts shifting
NW 10-20 kts.




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