Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 230419 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1119 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Issued at 925 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Will be upgrading more of the Winter Storm Watch to a warning
shortly. Confidence continues to be quite high across western and
southern Minnesota for more than 6 inches. The question of where
the band stops will continue to be an issue for several more hours.
This question will take several hi-res models to answer, and the
hi-res models currently extending out that far are susceptible to
developing errors quicker than global models. Therefore, cannot
really rely on the models with necessary precision until more
enter the picture and time closes in.

The areas that will be upgraded include Kandiyohi, Meeker to
Carver and Scott counties southward. Will leave the watch in place
for the Mississippi River counties and let the night shift
reassess. Still thinking 6 to 10 inches are likely in the warning
area, with amounts rapidly tapering off across the watch counties.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

The forecast has not changed too much for tonight, and into Friday
afternoon. However, the onset of the precipitation has been
delayed a few hours in eastern Minnesota. Temperatures tonight
will drop fast, then level off once cloud cover begins to build
across the west. Friday temperatures will reflect the change over,
or how quickly the change over to snow occurs. Currently highs
will likely be Friday morning in western Minnesota, before the
precipitation gets heavier. In the east, temperatures will rise to
near 40 before precipitation starts to develop.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

The main event will occur late Friday.

First, a very strong late Winter, early Spring storm will be
developing late tonight in the Dakotas, and move east, southeast
across the Minnesota, and far west central Wisconsin through
Saturday afternoon.

Timing, amounts and associated impacts are the main concerns over
the next 24-36 hours.

Second, there will be a strong gradient where the heavy snow
falls, and where little snow occurs on the northeast side of the
storm track. This tight gradient has been discussed over the past
day or so and no question that this gradient will occur. The main
question is where does this gradient occur? Due to the proximity
of where this tight gradient will occur is also a great concern.
At this time, the tight gradient will occur over the Twin Cities
Metro area. Impacts will occur, especially for those traveling to
south and west of the cities. Therefore, please continue to
monitor the forecast as some deviation will occur as the storm

Based on the latest information, the eastern side of the Twin
Cities may only receive a dusting, where the western side of the
cities, could receive up to a foot of snow. The main timing will
be 9 pm Friday night, through 9 am Saturday morning.

Although confidence has increased enough to issued winter storm
warnings for portion of west central Minnesota, there is still
the uncertainty to the south and east. Even a slight drift to the
southwest or northeast will greatly impact a very small area of
Minnesota. Therefore, a winter storm watch continues for the
remainder of central and southern Minnesota. The highest
confidence of receiving more than 6 inches of snowfall for this
event will be along a line from Morris in west central Minnesota,
southeast to Willmar, Gaylord, and Owatonna Minnesota.

One item to note, most of the short term ensemble members (snowfall
parameters) have shown a southwestern drift of the highest
snowfall totals across Minnesota. This is mainly due to the drier
and stronger northeast/easterly winds advecting into this storm.

Thirdly, some timing changes are noted, especially due to the
drier air initially. This will aid in drying the lower atmosphere
on the eastern edge of the precipitation field, or commonly
referred to as virga. But, once the precipitation develops, expect
a long duration of snow (6-12 hours), with heavy snow likely
Friday evening in west central/southwest Minnesota, and this area
slowly pivoting to the southeast across south central Minnesota
early Saturday morning. Thermal profiles across southwest, south
central Minnesota are warm enough for more sleet or rain during
the onset of the precipitation Friday morning/afternoon. If more
rain/sleet occurs, snowfall amounts could be significantly reduced
on the southwest side of the storm system. This area where more
rain/sleet occurs is mainly south and west of the Minnesota River

This system will quickly dissipate Saturday by noon, with some
clearing possible Saturday afternoon, especially in western
Minnesota. Due to the strong and higher sun angle for late March,
any snow that fall will likely melt in a few days.

Not much to say in the extended period, or after Friday/Saturday
storm, as the next system will be much warmer, and most of the
precipitation will be in the form of rain vs. snow. This may
become a concern as melting of snow from this system, plus the
added precipitation for late Sunday/Monday system, could produce
localized flooding. This is especially a concern along smaller
creeks and streams. This is due to the frozen ground, deep frost
layer, and the quick runoff from the precipitation.

After Sunday/Monday system, the flow becomes more northwest, which
means cooler but drier. Winter continues to hold on...


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Mid level cloud deck across southern MN is slowly sagging south
this evening. High clouds Friday morning will thicken and lower to
a mid level deck again by Friday afternoon. Further lowering will
occur, with snow moving into western Minnesota mid to late
afternoon, spreading east to the Mississippi River late Friday
evening. Occasional heavy snow is most likely at AXN, RWF, MKT
Friday evening. East winds will increase and could gust to 30-35
kt by afternoon.

KMSP...No concerns until later Friday evening when snow begins to
move in. Cigs and visibilities will deteriorate after 04-05Z

SAT...MVFR with morning -SN. Wind E 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
MON...MVFR with -RASN, possibly IFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.


MN...Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday for

     Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday for

     Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday for

     Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
     for MNZ049.

     Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
     for MNZ059-060-070-078.

     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday for

     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday
     for MNZ042.



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