Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 241130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
630 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Updated to include 12Z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Early morning water vapor and radar imagery with 500mb heights/winds
and surface obs showed an area of vorticity and precipitation across
the Dakotas. This area of vorticity will get sheared out over the
next 24 hours as a northern stream shortwave trough moves along the
international border. As a result the precipitation should dissipate
as it moves across Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Today will have increasing clouds with a few rain showers across
western Minnesota, and perhaps some sprinkles elsewhere. A cold
front will push through the region and bring northerly winds with
afternoon gusts of around 15 mph. Highs will reach the lower 60s
across the southeast, but only manage the upper 50s across the
northwest. Tonight high pressure will quickly move in and winds will
go calm. Overnight lows will hoover around the freezing mark.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Continued the trend of the previous forecast with lowering pops on
Thursday, and increasing high temperatures on Sunday and Monday.
Another positively tilted trough will move across the Upper Midwest
on Thursday. The moisture is marginal, and the strong ridge crashing
behind it lend some concern as to whether or not this trough and the
low level cold front that accompanies it will pass through the
region dry. Winds will pick up behind it, so should have breezy
conditions on Thursday.

Looking ahead, surface high pressure will build in across the north
Friday and Saturday. Upper level ridging across the ROckies will
bring warmer temperatures for later this weekend as southerly flow
develops on the back side of the surface high pressure. Eventually
an upper level cutoff low across the Western Conus will make its way
eastward and cause a lee-side cyclone to develop along with a chance
for showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty in this pattern,
and the model differences arise early next week so did not stray
from the blended guidance. Regardless, there is potential for more
active weather across the Upper Midwest next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Didn`t make any significant changes from the previous forecasts.
Weak trough moving through the area today will bring VFR ceilings
across the region, with perhaps some sprinkles or light rain.
However, guidance and trends show things weakening as they push
across the area, so didn`t include anything more than some VCSH
for now (at the more western locations). It`s possible that KAXN
could see some brief MVFR ceilings, but remained optimistic and
didn`t go with anything below 5k ft at this point. High pressure
will work back into the area tonight, with any clouds scouring out
during the evening hours.

KMSP...Main item of uncertainty/concern is how low ceilings could
get later this morning into the afternoon. Don`t think they`ll get
below 5k ft, but it would be something to watch (along with the
possibility of a few sprinkles).

Tuesday afternoon...VFR. North wind 10 to 15 kt.
Tuesday night...VFR. Northeast wind around 5 kt.
Wednesday...VFR. Variable wind 5 kt or less.
Wednesday night...VFR. Southwest wind increasing to 5 to 10 kt.
Thursday...MVFR possible with a chance of rain. Southwest wind 10
to 15 kt becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt.
Thursday night...VFR. North wind 5 to 10 kt.
Friday...VFR. West wind 5 to 15 kt.




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